Patient Capital Management Letters & Research Archive

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

67 pieces · 2021–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

07-10Finding Patience in... an Early 2000s Hip-Hop Song?This report says the stock market is booming and people are getting overconfident. The author instead bought beaten-down healthcare stocks and beat the market. His advice: when everyone is euphoric, s…→07-092Q26 Portfolio Activity & AttributionThis report shows how a professional fund manager beat the stock market by 2% in the second quarter of 2026. His big wins came from healthcare stocks (UnitedHealth rose 54%, CVS 45%) and new bets on p…→07-012Q26 Quarterly Market ReviewThis report covers the stock market's big rally in the second quarter of 2026. The S&P 500 returned 15.2%, one of the best quarters in decades. But the economy looks messy: inflation is up to 4.2%, co…→04-231Q26 Quarterly WebinarThis is about how investor Samantha McLemore sees today's market. She says the rally isn't a bubble—it's driven by strong company earnings, not just hype. Extra info (like team names) can make you ove…→04-09“The Worst Brings Out the Best in Us” - Dr. Edith EgerThis report from investment firm Patient Capital explains their strategy during the 2025 first-quarter market selloff. They believe the long-term bull market is still intact, and sharp drops—like soft…→04-081Q26 Portfolio Activity & AttributionThis report shows how a professional investor managed money in early 2026. The market fell, but energy stocks soared after Middle East conflict and a Strait of Hormuz closure pushed oil to $118—double…→04-011Q26 Quarterly Market ReviewThis report covers Q1 2026, when Middle East conflict caused oil prices to spike and stock markets to fall. The big news: mega-cap tech stocks (Apple, Nvidia, etc.) dropped sharply, while energy and u…→01-274Q25 Quarterly WebinarPatient Capital's webinar explains how they consistently beat the market. Their secret: sticking to long-term thinking and exploiting market emotions (like excessive pessimism) to buy good companies c…→01-164Q25 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how Patient Capital's fund beat the stock market for the third year in a row by investing in overlooked areas like healthcare, not AI hype. For example, they added to healthcare s…→01-14The More Things Change, The More They Stay The SameThis report says the U.S. stock market has risen for three straight years and now trades at a high price relative to earnings (price-to-earnings ratio). Historically, when stocks are this expensive, f…→01-024Q25 Quarterly Market ReviewUS stocks rose about 18% in 2025 despite a 21% drop in April. The Fed cut interest rates twice even as the government shut down for 43 days. Consumers spent more during holidays, but confidence fell t…→

2025

10-103Q25 Portfolio RecapThis report explains how a fund manager adjusted his portfolio in the third quarter. He focuses on two stocks: Precigen (a small biotech company developing a rare disease drug) and UnitedHealth (a hea…→10-103Q25 Portfolio Activity & AttributionThis is a report on Patient Capital's investment fund for the third quarter of 2025. It returned 14.1%, beating the S&P 500's 8.1%. The key was buying unloved stocks like Google and Alibaba when senti…→10-09Are We There Yet?This analysis says the bull market that started in 2009 isn't over yet, even though stocks have gone up 10x. Surprisingly, many professional investors (like hedge funds and university endowments) have…→10-013Q25 Quarterly Market ReviewThis review covers Q3 2025 US markets, which hit 23 new highs driven by strong retail sales, Fed rate cuts, and AI spending. But consumer confidence plunged to near-record lows—a red flag. For ordinar…→07-11A Gem Cannot Be Polished Without Friction, Nor a Man Perfected Without TrialsThis piece explains how the market's wild swings in Q2 2025—first a 21% crash, then a 30% rebound—created opportunities for value investors. For ordinary investors, the key takeaway is: don't panic-se…→07-112Q25 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis review covers how a fund navigated the 2025 second quarter, a period where markets first dropped then recovered. By picking specific stocks—like beaten-down UnitedHealth and offshore drillers—the…→07-012Q25 Quarterly Market ReviewThis report reviews the second quarter of 2025: markets plunged over 20% in April on tariff shocks (a bear market), then staged a sharp V-shaped recovery led by large-cap tech stocks, while small caps…→04-151Q25 Samantha's Quarterly LetterThis letter explains why a market panic can be a buying opportunity, not a time to sell. Historical data shows that after big drops like this, the market often rebounds 40% within a year. When the fea…→04-091Q25 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how a pro investor handled the early-2025 market drop. The S&P 500 fell nearly 19% from its peak, close to a bear market (down 20%+). But history suggests optimism: in 17 similar…→04-011Q25 Quarterly Market ReviewIn Q1 2025, the US stock market fell 10% from its peak—a normal “correction.” Historically, such dips happen once a year, and the market often bounces back strongly (average 26% gain over the next yea…→01-13“There is nothing so stable as change.” Bob DylanThis annual letter reviews 2024—the stock market surged over 25% for two years straight, but the author warns not to expect a repeat. She predicts the S&P 500 will return only 6-8% annually over the n…→01-124Q24 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report covers Patient Capital's investment moves in Q4 2024. Their portfolio returned 8.2%, beating the S&P 500's 2.4%. They bet big on travel stocks (like United Airlines) and fintech (like SoFi…→01-03Quarterly Market Review 2024This report reviews 2024 U.S. stock market performance. Stocks rose 25% for the second year in a row, driven mainly by the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and others) which averaged 60% g…→

2024

10-09What Every Portfolio Needs: UnderperformersThis article explains why owning stocks that have recently performed poorly (the 'underperformers') may be the smartest move for investors. The S&P 500 is up 22% this year, yet a record $6.5 trillion…→10-083Q24 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how Patient Capital's fund performed in Q3 2024. They shifted to small-cap and value stocks, and made contrarian bets: buying Alibaba when China was out of favor, and energy stock…→10-01Quarterly Market Review 3Q 2024This report reviews US markets in the third quarter of 2024, noting a sharp 8.5% dip in August that recovered by quarter-end with 12 new all-time highs for the S&P 500. The big shift: small-cap and va…→07-11“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”This report says the market is split right now: a handful of big tech stocks (like Nvidia and the 'Magnificent Seven') are soaring, but most stocks—especially small ones—are falling. The author thinks…→07-102Q24 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how Patient Capital's fund performed in the first half of 2024. While big tech stocks like Nvidia soared, the fund thinks many are no longer cheap. So they sold some tech and boug…→07-03Quarterly Market Review 2Q 2024This report looks at the extreme split in the US stock market during the second quarter of 2024. A handful of giant tech stocks (like Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, each worth over $3 trillion) soared, lif…→04-11A Differentiated View on DiversificationThis report makes a simple but counterintuitive point: buying cheap stocks (low price-to-earnings ratio) has outperformed chasing hot stocks over the long run. Since 1951, the cheapest stocks have ret…→04-101Q24 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report says the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech giants (like Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia) are not a bubble. For example, Google’s stock price implies only 4% annual revenue growth for 20 years, far below i…→04-03Quarterly Market Review 1Q 2024This report breaks down U.S. markets in early 2024: stocks rallied (S&P 500 up 10.6%) despite sticky inflation (core PCE at 2.8%) and rising bond yields. The Magnificent Seven (Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, e…→01-17"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.” - Charlie MungerThis report explains how a 'patient waiting' investing strategy earned a 37.6% return in 2023, beating the S&P 500. The key idea: most investors are still cautious, holding record amounts of cash (mon…→01-174Q23 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report shows how a fund manager shifted his portfolio in late 2023. He believes markets overreacted to bad news for some stocks. Banks, for example, are required to set aside money for future loa…→01-02Quarterly Market Review 4Q 2023This review covers 2023 US markets: the recession everyone expected didn't happen. Despite aggressive rate hikes (to 5.5%), consumers stayed strong thanks to savings and jobs. Credit card debt hit $1…→

2023

10-11On Expectations: Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, LowThis piece argues that extreme market fear is a buying opportunity. When the CBOE put/call ratio (a fear gauge) hit 1.97, the market has historically risen 18% on average the next year. The focus is o…→10-113Q23 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report shows how a professional investor moved money in late 2023: they bought energy, airlines (like Delta), and CVS when prices dropped due to fear, while selling a troubled company (Farfetch).…→10-05Quarterly Market Review 3Q 2023This report reviews the US market in Q3 2023 – stocks rose then fell, while the Fed kept interest rates high (borrowing costs high). Inflation (pace of price increases) actually slowed, but the market…→07-212Q23 Opportunity Equity Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how Patient Capital's fund beat the market in 2023's second quarter. They bought travel stocks like Norwegian Cruise and Delta when everyone was panicking in 2022, and those bets…→07-14On Growth and ChangeThis report shows that the best time to buy stocks is when everyone else is scared. After the 2022 bear market, stocks bounced back. The author highlights overlooked sectors like travel and banks, whi…→07-05Quarterly Market Review 2Q 2023In the second quarter of 2023, U.S. stocks entered a new bull market (rising more than 20% from their low), but the rally was driven almost entirely by a handful of giant tech stocks—most other stocks…→04-201Q23 Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report breaks down how Patient Capital's Opportunity Equity fund beat the S&P 500 in early 2023 by betting on consumer, finance, and industrial stocks, plus smart picks like Meta and Coinbase. Fo…→04-18Forget Market Forecasts. Trust A Strong Investment Process.This report argues that market forecasts are mostly useless—even experts often get them wrong. In early 2023, most strategists predicted a market drop, but tech stocks rallied. Instead of guessing mac…→04-10Quarterly Market Review 1Q 2023This report looks at how U.S. markets performed in early 2023, when a few banks like Silicon Valley Bank failed and caused panic. Despite that, stocks bounced back, but the rally was driven mostly by…→01-274Q22 Opportunity Equity Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how Patient Capital's Opportunity Equity strategy performed in the fourth quarter of 2022. It returned 1.85%, but the S&P 500 index returned 7.56%, so it lagged. The report breaks…→01-13“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”This report argues that sticking with simple habits beats complex strategies in investing. For example, a janitor and a secretary became millionaires by saving and holding blue-chip stocks long-term,…→01-10Quarterly Market Review 4Q 2022This report reviews how brutal 2022 was for investors: it was one of the worst years for stocks in nearly a century, and bonds also crashed—breaking the old rule that mixing stocks and bonds keeps you…→

2022

10-213Q22 Opportunity Equity Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report breaks down how Patient Capital's Opportunity Equity fund performed in the third quarter of 2022. While the S&P 500 fell 4.88% due to Fed rate hikes and market panic, the fund lost only 4.…→10-18Opportunity Equity 3Q2022 CommentaryThis report argues that despite a brutal 2022 market (S&P 500 down over 25%), history shows buying at such deep dips almost never loses money over 1+ years and often delivers strong returns. For regul…→10-07Quarterly Market Review 3Q 2022This report covers what happened in financial markets during the third quarter of 2022. The big story: the Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates aggressively to fight inflation, which caused sto…→07-192Q22 Opportunity Equity Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how a fund manager traded stocks in the second quarter of 2022. They think travel stocks like Expedia and United Airlines are undervalued—prices fell sharply, but business is stro…→07-15Extreme Times: A Once in a Decade Opportunity?This report says that the first half of 2022 was brutal for stocks (the S&P 500 fell 20%, the worst in over 50 years), but the author sees it as a rare buying opportunity. For regular investors, the k…→07-08Quarterly Market Review 2Q 2022This report looks at global markets in the second quarter of 2022. The big story: investor fears quickly shifted from high inflation (rising prices) to a possible recession (economic slowdown), sendin…→04-29Exploiting Volatility to Outmaneuver the MarketThis report argues that market panics create buying opportunities. The author says the early 2022 sell-off was overblown—economists were too worried about a recession, but the economy was still growin…→04-291Q22 Opportunity Equity Portfolio Activity and AttributionThis report explains how the Miller Opportunity Equity fund performed in early 2022. It lost 7.12%, worse than the S&P 500's 4.6% drop. The reason: energy stocks (like Ovintiv and Diamondback, oil com…→04-07Quarterly Market Review 1Q 2022This report explains why markets suddenly turned ugly in early 2022. Inflation hit a 40-year high, the war in Ukraine started, and the Fed had to raise interest rates. The result: energy stocks soared…→01-21Has the Great Growth Bull Taken Its Last Gasp?This report argues that the market may be shifting from high-growth stocks (like tech companies) to classic value stocks (like energy and finance). For regular investors, this means risky growth stock…→01-10Quarterly Market Review 4Q 2021This report reviews how global investments performed in 2021. Stocks and commodities (like oil and copper) had a great year, while bonds (loans to governments or companies) lost money. For everyday in…→

2021

10-26Optimizing for Long-term Return PotentialThis report explains how a fund lost money in Q3 2021 but sees it as a buying opportunity. For regular investors, the key takeaway is: don't panic when markets drop; instead, look for oversold stocks…→10-13Quarterly Market Review 3Q 2021This report looks at global markets in the third quarter of 2021. In plain terms, big company stocks and growth stocks did better than small company and value stocks in the US. In China, new governmen…→08-03Fundamentals v ExpectationsThis report explains how professional investor Bill Miller managed his fund in mid-2021. His main idea: despite market jitters, many undervalued stocks (like Alibaba, ADT, and Splunk) still have room…→07-13Quarterly Market Review 2Q 2021This report looks at the stock market in the second quarter of 2021. Overall, stocks went up, but there were big differences: tech and real estate companies did best, while small company stocks lagged…→04-27Learn to Earn!This piece looks at wild market events in early 2021, like GameStop's short squeeze (when traders who bet the stock would fall got crushed) and Archegos' blowup. The key takeaway: short selling (betti…→04-15Quarterly Market Review 1Q 2021This report looks at how markets performed in early 2021. Despite bad news like the Capitol riot and COVID-19 lockdowns, stocks went up—but not the usual tech giants. Instead, old-economy sectors like…→01-22Ain’t No Valuation High Enough to Keep the Market from Lovin’ Growth Stocks!This report says the stock market still has room to run, even after big gains. The author argues the pandemic is more like a hurricane than a financial crisis, so the recovery will be faster than expe…→01-13Quarterly Market Review 4Q 2020This report reviews global investment markets in 2020. For the year, tech growth stocks led, but in the fourth quarter, value stocks (cheaper, traditional companies) and small-cap stocks (smaller firm…→