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Patient Capital ManagementArticle14 Jul 2026Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

Opportunity Equity Strategy Update for 07/02/2026 – 07/10/2026

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This weekly review from patient_capital says its portfolio was basically flat last week (-0.02%), slightly behind the S&P 500 (+1.26%), but still ahead for the year by about 0.57 percentage points. The biggest winner was Meta, up 14.8% after it said it would make its own AI chips and start charging for its Muse Spark AI model. Nvidia gained 8.3% after Bank of America stuck to a $350 price target. QXO fell 7.5% to a one-year low after Citi cut its target to $25. No buys or sells were disclosed.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

At a Glance

The author reviews the week from a position-review perspective; the AI monetization narrative and newly established derivatives positions contributed the bulk of gains, while oil prices and stocks hitting 52-week lows weighed on performance. Year-to-date, the portfolio still leads the S&P 500 by 57 basis points (neutral).

  • The representative account fell 0.02% last week, underperforming the S&P 500's +1.26%; year-to-date it is up 11.93%, still leading the S&P 500 by 57 basis points.
  • Meta rose 14.8% for the week, with its self-developed AI chip, doubling of data center capacity to 14GW, and external commercialization of Muse Spark serving as core catalysts.
  • A newly established, undisclosed-name derivatives position within the quarter rose 44.8% for the week, ranking among the largest single positive contributors this week.
  • Nvidia rose 8.3% for the week, with BofA maintaining a $350 price target (66% upside); Crocs rose 6.0% for the week, hitting a 52-week high.
  • QXO fell 7.5% for the week to a 52-week low, with Citi cutting its target price to $25; UAL fell 5.5% for the week, dragged by Brent crude's 5.9% weekly gain.
~9 min full read · 6 sections
Deep Analysis

Weekly Underperformance vs. S&P; YTD Still Ahead by 57bps

The representative account fell 0.02% last week, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.26% gain; it is up 11.93% year-to-date, still ahead of the S&P 500 by 57 basis points.

Performance Comparison: Last week (07/02-07/10), the Opportunity Equity representative account returned -0.02% after fees, versus +1.26% for the S&P 500; month-to-date and quarter-to-date it is +1.56% (S&P 500: +1.05%); year-to-date it is 11.93% vs. 11.36%. Over longer horizons, it clearly outperformed over 1 year (29.27% vs. 22.07%) and 3 years (25.59% vs. 21.39%), but lagged over 5 years (5.63% vs. 13.25%) and 10 years (14.92% vs. 15.45%); since inception (annualized, from 2000/6/26) it is 8.76% vs. 8.53%.

Period Opportunity Equity Representative Account (After Fees) S&P 500
Last week (07/02-07/10) -0.02% 1.26%
Month-to-date 1.56% 1.05%
Quarter-to-date 1.56% 1.05%
Year-to-date 11.93% 11.36%
1 Year 29.27% 22.07%
3 Years 25.59% 21.39%
5 Years 5.63% 13.25%
10 Years 14.92% 15.45%
Since inception (annualized, from 2000/6/26) 8.76% 8.53%

This week's return structure was polarized: AI heavyweight stocks and a derivatives position newly established within the quarter, the name of which has not yet been disclosed, contributed the bulk of gains, while drags came from names hitting 52-week lows, airlines impacted by crude oil prices, and pharma/royalty holdings with no major news. The author explains individual stock moves through events and sell-side rating changes, and discloses no buys or sells throughout—this is a weekly attribution review from a holder's perspective.

Meta Leads Gains: AI Chips and Muse Spark Catalysts

Meta rose 14.8% for the week, breaking above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages in one stroke, fully igniting the AI monetization narrative.

  • Meta Platforms Inc. (META) (not explicitly disclosed): The company issued a series of announcements this week, including plans to develop its own AI chips, double data center capacity to 14GW by 2027, and launch its first externally commercialized AI model, Muse Spark, with API pricing significantly below competitors. The author attributes the rally to a re-rating of AI monetization potential: in-house chips align with a cost-reduction logic, while external model commercialization corresponds to a new revenue curve; the 14.8% weekly gain was the largest single positive contributor to the portfolio this week.

Nvidia Supported by Bank of America; Crocs Hits New High

Nvidia rose 8.3% for the week and broke above its 50/100-day moving averages; BofA maintained its $350 price target (66% upside); Crocs hit a 52-week high; FBTC strengthened alongside Bitcoin's 3.7% gain.

  • Nvidia Corp (NVDA) (not explicitly disclosed): rose 8.3% for the week, breaking above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Bank of America maintained its $350 price target, corresponding to 66% upside, arguing that the company's "pricing power and scale advantages are underappreciated"—that is, its pricing power and scale advantages are being underestimated by the market.
  • Crocs, Inc. (CROX) (not explicitly disclosed): rose 6.0% for the week, hitting a 52-week high against a quiet news backdrop.
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) (not explicitly disclosed): rose 3.9% for the week, tracking Bitcoin's 3.7% gain.
  • New position (derivative, name not disclosed) (newly established; opened within the quarter and not yet publicly disclosed): rose 44.8% for the week, one of the largest single positive contributors; the original text only marks it as "New Security*" without disclosing the specific underlying.

QXO Hits 52-Week Low; Citi Cuts Price Target

QXO fell 7.5% for the week to a 52-week low; Citi cut its price target from $28 to $25, but maintained a Buy rating.

  • QXO Inc. (QXO) (not explicitly disclosed): The stock fell to a 52-week low this week. Citi cut its price target from $28 to $25 (corresponding to 67% upside) while maintaining a Buy rating. The bearish signal the author highlights: a sell-side target cut coincided with the stock hitting a new low; despite the unchanged rating, price momentum remains weak.

UAL Hit by Oil Prices; Precigen and Others Weaken

UAL fell 5.5% for the week, with Brent crude's 5.9% weekly gain serving as the direct trigger; Precigen (including its 2034 warrants) and Royalty Pharma also closed lower.

  • United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) (not explicitly disclosed): fell 5.5% for the week. Brent crude rose 5.9% this week, with Trump announcing the end of the Iran ceasefire and pushing oil prices higher, intensifying jet fuel cost expectations and weighing on the stock. Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $182 to $185 (corresponding to 47% upside) ahead of earnings, showing sell-side expectations for profitability remain intact.
  • Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) (not explicitly disclosed): fell 5.7% for the week on a quiet news front.
  • Precigen, Inc. Warrant 2034 (not explicitly disclosed): fell 6.2% for the week, moving lower in tandem with the underlying stock.
  • Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) (not explicitly disclosed): fell 2.3% for the week, pulling back from its 52-week high on a quiet news front. The author notes that the latter two companies had no company-specific negatives, so the declines were closer to technical pullbacks.

Position Moves

Ticker Direction Author's One-Sentence View Key Data
Meta Platforms Inc. (META) Not disclosed Views it as the largest single positive contributor of the week, driven by a re-rating of AI monetization potential +14.8% w/w, broke above 50/100/200-day moving averages; plans to develop proprietary AI chips, doubles data center capacity to 14GW by 2027, launched Muse Spark API priced below competitors
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) Not disclosed Earned Bank of America's support, which believes its pricing power and scale advantages are undervalued +8.3% w/w, broke above 50/100-day moving averages; BofA target price $350, implying 66% upside
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Not disclosed Hit new highs amid subdued news flow, positive price action +6.0% w/w, made a 52-week high
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) Not disclosed Strengthened in line with bitcoin's rise +3.9% w/w; bitcoin +3.7% w/w
New position (derivative, name not disclosed) Newly established Built during the quarter, one of the largest single positive contributors, but details undisclosed +44.8% w/w; the original text marks it only as "New Security*"
QXO Inc. (QXO) Not disclosed Broker target-price cuts coincided with a new stock low; price momentum is weak -7.5% w/w, hit a 52-week low; Citi target price $28→$25, implying 67% upside, Buy maintained
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Not disclosed Rising oil prices pressured the stock, but the sell side still has earnings expectations -5.5% w/w; Brent crude +5.9% w/w; Morgan Stanley target price $182→$185, implying 47% upside
Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) Not disclosed Subdued news flow, no company-specific negative catalyst behind the decline -5.7% w/w
Precigen, Inc. Warrant 2034 Not disclosed Weakened in line with the underlying stock -6.2% w/w
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) Not disclosed Pulled back from a 52-week high on subdued news flow, closer to a technical correction -2.3% w/w