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Patient Capital ManagementArticle5 Oct 2026Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

Opportunity Equity Strategy Update for 09/25/2026 – 10/02/2026

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This report covers Patient Capital's fund performance for the week ending Oct 2. The fund fell 0.56%, slightly more than the S&P 500's 0.25% drop, but is up 15.26% year-to-date, beating the index. The manager doesn't state a market view directly, but holdings suggest they still favor AI (Nvidia, Meta) and consumer recovery (Norwegian Cruise Line). Key holdings: Nvidia (NVDA) has a $350 price target from analysts; Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) reaffirmed guidance with expected revenue beat; Citigroup (C) fell below moving averages and had its target cut to $147.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

At a Glance Patient Capital's Opportunity Equity Strategy fell 0.56% for the week ending October 2, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.25% decline, but remains up 15.26% year-to-date, leading the S&P 500 by 145 basis points. The report's core discussion centers on Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) reaffirmi

~5 min full read · 6 sections
Deep Analysis

This Month's Scorecard

Month -0.56% vs S&P 500 -0.25%, YTD +15.26%.

Metric Fund Benchmark
Last Week (09/25-10/02) -0.56% -0.25%
Month-to-Date +0.24% +0.94%
Year-to-Date +15.26% +13.81%
1 Year +20.50% +16.35%
3 Years +30.61% +23.27%
5 Years +8.83% +13.74%
10 Years +13.39% +15.44%
Since Inception (Annualized) +8.80% +8.54%

Who Contributed, Who Detracted

Position Contribution/Detraction One-Line Attribution
Precigen, Inc. Warrants 2034 +11.9% Derivatives surged, hitting a 5-year high
Precigen, Inc. +10.2% Common stock rose in tandem
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) +3.9% Cantor maintained a $350 target price, bullish on AI demand expansion
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) +3.6% Reaffirmed full-year guidance; 3Q revenue expected to exceed prior estimates
People Inc. (PPLI) +2.9% Broke above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; previously withdrew its acquisition offer for MGM
Citigroup Inc. (C) -4.3% Fell below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages; JP Morgan cut its target price to $147
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) -9.4% Fell below the 100-day moving average, but Loop maintained a $137 target price, bullish on Genius
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) -6.4% Fell below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages; no clear news
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) -6.2% Fell below the 200-day moving average; Wells Fargo assigned a $200 target price and an equal-weight rating
Meta Platforms Inc. 01/28 540C -9.8% Derivatives were a drag, but the common stock received a reiterated $800 target price from Citi

Stock Commentary

  • Precigen, Inc. (PGEN): The stock price rose to a 5-year high during the reporting period, contributing the most (common stock +10.2%, warrants +11.9%). However, the original text did not specify a specific catalyst, only citing "limited news."
  • Nvidia Corp (NVDA): Cantor maintained a $350 target price (50% upside) after meeting with management, believing that demand for AI solutions is expanding to more industries with an increasingly broad customer base.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): Reaffirmed full-year guidance, expecting third-quarter revenue to exceed prior estimates. Citi lowered its target price to $19 (25% upside) due to higher fuel and interest costs but maintained a Buy rating.
  • Global Payments Inc. (GPN): Loop maintained a $137 target price (75% upside) after a client survey, noting that functionality was the main reason clients previously left GPN. Current satisfaction with Genius is high, and clients are choosing Genius for its customer service and AI capabilities. Loop views Genius as a key asset that could improve retention, upselling, and new client acquisition.
  • Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Hired former MongoDB CEO Chirantan Desai to lead a new enterprise AI product. Citi believes Meta will target existing advertisers to promote this product, reiterating an $800 target price (10% upside). Note: The derivatives mentioned in the report (01/28 540C) were a major drag, but the fundamental view on the common stock remains positive.

How the Manager Views the Market

[Slightly Bullish] The report does not directly express a macro stance, but inferences can be drawn from the following clues:

  • AI themes (NVDA, META) and consumption recovery themes (NCLH) in the portfolio remain favored, with analysts providing positive target prices.
  • Financial stocks (C) and payment stocks (GPN) are under short-term pressure, but analysts still maintain Buy/Overweight ratings, suggesting the manager may view the pullback as temporary.
  • The report does not disclose net exposure, leverage, or long/short ratio changes, leaving a gap in position structure clues.

How Positions Shifted: Where to Add, Where to Reduce

The report does not disclose any new positions, additions, reductions, or liquidations. All discussions are based on the weekly performance of existing holdings and third-party analyst views. No fund flow information is available for extraction.

Fund Matters

  • Size Change: Not disclosed.
  • Risk Disclaimer: The end of the report includes a standard disclaimer, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results, views are subject to change without notice, and the content does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation.