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Patient Capital ManagementArticle6 Jul 2026Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

Opportunity Equity Strategy Update for 6/26/2026 – 7/02/2026

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This weekly update from an asset manager's Opportunity Equity strategy shows the portfolio rose 1.56% last week, slightly behind the S&P 500, though it still leads the index by about 2% year-to-date. The author gives no clear bullish or bearish view. Among the names highlighted: Alphabet (Google's parent) gained 6.7% and retook a key moving average; Amazon rose 4.3%, with an analyst seeing possible upside in its cloud business; QXO fell 8.8% due to a weak housing market, and while its price target was cut, the analyst kept an 'overweight' rating.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

At a Glance

Over the period, the portfolio’s YTD return led the S&P 500 by 197 basis points, but it slightly underperformed by 22 basis points last week; the author makes no clear directional judgment on the market [Neutral].

  • Last week the portfolio rose 1.56%, underperforming the S&P 500 (1.78%) by about 22 bps; YTD it is up 11.95%, leading the S&P 500 by 197 bps in total.
  • The five largest contributors all rose: Global Payments +12.6%, Coinbase +11.0%, Adobe +8.2%, Alphabet +6.7%, Amazon +4.3%.
  • Among detractors, QXO led declines at -8.8%, NCLH -6.9%, PGEN -3.8% (plus a 1.6% drag from warrants), C -1.3%; Precigen’s CFO selling approximately $1.1 million in shares was the only clear idiosyncratic negative event.
  • Institutional target prices diverged: GOOGL (435→416), COIN (220→212), QXO (32→28) were cut; AMZN (312→313), NCLH (19→25) were raised.
  • Long-term performance diverges clearly: 1-year (33.28% vs 21.62%) and 3-year (26.35% vs 20.53%) excess returns are significant, but the 5-year annualized return of 5.15% lags the S&P 500 by about 792 bps.
~8 min full read · 4 sections
Deep Analysis

Underperformed S&P Last Week, YTD Lead by 197 Basis Points

Last week the portfolio rose 1.56%, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.78% by roughly 22 basis points; year-to-date it gained 11.95%, leading the S&P 500 by 197 basis points.

Performance Comparison: As of July 2, 2026, returns for the Opportunity Equity representative account (net of fees) versus the S&P 500 for each period:

Period Opportunity Equity S&P 500
Last Week (06/26–07/02) 1.56% 1.78%
Month-to-Date 1.58% -0.21%
Quarter-to-Date 1.58% -0.21%
Year-to-Date 11.95% 9.98%
1 Year 33.28% 21.62%
3 Year 26.35% 20.53%
5 Year 5.15% 13.07%
10 Year 15.21% 15.46%
Since Inception (annualized, from 2000/6/26) 8.77% 8.48%

The author uses the contributor/detractor list to explain the week's performance: five positive contributors rose between 4.3% and 12.6% for the week, but the four main detractors fell by a larger combined amount, leaving a positive net effect yet still underperforming the benchmark. The table also shows that the strategy has lagged the S&P 500 by roughly 792 basis points on a 5-year annualized basis (5.15% vs. 13.07%), while the excess returns are most pronounced over the past 1 year (33.28% vs. 21.62%) and 3 years (26.35% vs. 20.53%).

Contributors: Five Core Holdings Rose Collectively

This week's main positive contributors were Alphabet (+6.7%), Global Payments (+12.6%), Coinbase (+11.0%), Amazon (+4.3%), and Adobe (+8.2%), with several names breaking above key moving averages; analyst price targets were mixed over the period. The original report does not disclose portfolio buy or sell actions for these names.

  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (not disclosed): Rose 6.7%, reclaiming its 100-day moving average; Wells Fargo cut its price target from $435 to $416 (16% upside) after the latest capital raise, maintaining an Overweight rating and emphasizing its leadership position and potential to become an AI winner.
  • Global Payments Inc. (GPN) (not disclosed): Rose 12.6%, breaking above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (not disclosed): Rose 11.0%, following Bitcoin's 3.2% gain; Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $220 to $212 (28% upside), citing soft 2Q crypto prices and volumes.
  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) (not disclosed): Rose 4.3%, moving above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages; Wells Fargo raised its price target from $312 to $313 (29% upside), maintaining Overweight, and expects FY27 AWS revenue growth to significantly exceed consensus expectations.
  • Adobe Inc. (ADBE) (not disclosed): Rose 8.2%, advancing on light news flow.

Detractors: QXO Led Declines, PGEN Hit by Selling

This week's main detractors were QXO (-8.8%), Norwegian Cruise Line (-6.9%), Precigen (-3.8%), and Citigroup (-1.3%), with Precigen's 2034 warrants an additional drag of 1.6%; among these, Precigen's CFO selling approximately $1.1 million in shares was the only specific negative stock-level event. The original report does not disclose portfolio buy or sell actions for these names.

  • QXO, Inc. (QXO) (not disclosed): Fell 8.8%, the largest detractor of the week; KeyBanc cut its price target from $32 to $28 (73% upside), citing a weak housing environment, while maintaining an Overweight rating.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) (not disclosed): Fell 6.9%, breaking below its 200-day moving average; Wells Fargo, by contrast, raised its price target from $19 to $25 (26% upside), citing extremely conservative 2H26 guidance and 2027 benefiting from low base comparisons and the first full summer season at its private island, Great Stirrup Cay.
  • Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) (not disclosed): Fell 3.8%; CFO Harry Thomasian sold approximately $1.1 million in shares.
  • Precigen, Inc. Warrant 2034 (not disclosed): As a derivative holding, fell 1.6%.
  • Citigroup Inc. (C) (not disclosed): Fell 1.3% on light news flow.

Position Moves

Instrument Direction Author's One-Line Stance Key Data
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Not specified Contributor; institution maintains Overweight Weekly +6.7%; Wells Fargo target price 435→416 (16% upside)
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Not specified Contributor; broke above key moving averages Weekly +12.6%; broke above 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Not specified Contributor; institution lowers target price Weekly +11.0%; Goldman target price 220→212 (28% upside)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Not specified Contributor; institution raises target price Weekly +4.3%; Wells Fargo target price 312→313 (29% upside); expects FY27 AWS to beat expectations
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Not specified Contributor; rose on light news flow Weekly +8.2%
QXO, Inc. (QXO) Not specified Largest detractor; institution maintains Overweight Weekly -8.8%; KeyBanc target price 32→28 (73% upside)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Not specified Detractor; institution raises target price Weekly -6.9%; Wells Fargo target price 19→25 (26% upside)
Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) Not specified Detractor; CFO reduces holdings Weekly -3.8%; CFO sold approximately $1.1 million of shares
Precigen, Inc. Warrant 2034 Not specified Detractor; derivatives position Weekly -1.6%
Citigroup Inc. (C) Not specified Detractor; light news flow Weekly -1.3%