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Patient Capital ManagementQuarterly13 Oct 2021Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

Quarterly Market Review 3Q 2021

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This report looks at global markets in the third quarter of 2021. In plain terms, big company stocks and growth stocks did better than small company and value stocks in the US. In China, new government rules on tech and education, plus Evergrande's debt troubles, hurt Chinese stocks. But the author doesn't think this will cause a global crisis like 2008's Lehman Brothers collapse. For regular investors, it's useful because it shows how different assets (stocks, bonds, gold, Bitcoin) performed and why. It also highlights risks like possible US interest rate hikes and China's regulatory changes. Worth a read if you want to understand market trends without jargon.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

This report reviews market performance in the third quarter of 2021. The core view is that the economy showed divergence due to the impact of the Delta variant, with only 56% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated. The Federal Reserve maintained near-zero interest rates but hinted at a possible imm

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This section reviews global market performance in the third quarter of 2021, focusing on the impact of the Delta variant on economic recovery, the suppression of stock markets by China's regulatory tightening, and the divergence in asset performance amid changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

Core Views

The author argues that the market exhibited significant structural divergence: large-cap stocks, growth stocks, and the financial/utilities/telecommunications/healthcare sectors outperformed, while small-cap and value stocks faced pressure. Meanwhile, China's regulatory storm (edtech, internet antitrust, common prosperity) and the Evergrande debt crisis constituted major risk events, but the author does not characterize them as systemic crises (the "Lehman moment" is questionable).

Key Arguments and Data

  • Pandemic and Policy: Only 56% of the U.S. population was fully vaccinated, and the federal government began mandating vaccinations; the Fed maintained near-zero interest rates, but the dot plot indicated that the first rate hike expectation moved forward from 2023 to 2022.
  • China Market: Regulations covered gaming time limits, a ban on for-profit edtech and its listings, internet antitrust, and donations for common prosperity (Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba); the Evergrande debt crisis sparked market concerns about a "Lehman moment."
  • Global Politics: Germany's SPD won the election with 25.7% of the vote but needed to form a coalition; the U.S. military ended its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
  • Asset Performance Comparison:
Asset Class Quarterly Return
S&P 500 +0.58%
Nasdaq -0.22%
Dow Jones -1.46%
Russell 1000 (Large-Cap) +0.21%
Russell Mid-Cap -0.93%
Russell 2000 (Small-Cap) -4.36%
Russell 1000 Growth +1.16%
Russell 1000 Value -0.78%
Long-Term U.S. Treasury +0.47%
Barclays Aggregate (Corporate Bonds) +0.05%
U.S. Dollar Index +1.94%
Gold -1.06%
Crude Oil +2.12%
Bitcoin +25.6%
  • Sector Performance: 7 out of 11 sectors rose, with financials (+2.74%), utilities (+1.78%), telecommunications (+1.60%), and healthcare (+1.43%) leading.

Companies/Assets Involved

  • Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba: Committed donations to "common prosperity," under pressure from Chinese regulations, with stock prices declining.
  • China Evergrande Group: The debt crisis sparked concerns about systemic risk, but the author does not explicitly take a bearish or bullish stance.
  • Bitcoin: Rebounded 25.6% in the quarter, outperforming most traditional assets.

Investment Implications

  • Style Preference: Continue favoring large-cap growth stocks while avoiding small-cap and value stocks, as capital concentrates on assets with higher certainty amid divergent economic recovery.
  • Sector Selection: Defensive/rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, utilities, telecommunications, and healthcare offer relative advantages when rate hike expectations rise.
  • China Risk: Regulatory uncertainty has not yet cleared, putting near-term pressure on Chinese ADRs, but if the Evergrande crisis does not escalate to a systemic level, it may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
  • Asset Allocation: A stronger U.S. dollar (+1.94%) suppressed gold (-1.06%), but crude oil (+2.12%) and bitcoin (+25.6%) indicate that demand for inflation hedging persists.