Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.
Last week's market was driven by worries about big AI spending. Alphabet said it would spend more on AI infrastructure, which dragged down tech stocks, but earnings and analyst price targets stayed solid, so the fund's stance is neutral. The fund lost 1.24% for the week, slightly behind the S&P 500, though it is still up 9.27% year-to-date, a bit ahead of the index. Key holdings: Alphabet (Google's parent) beat earnings but raised capital spending, sending shares down 7.8%; GM had a strong quarter, raised its full-year outlook, and rose 8.6%; Amazon fell 6.1% on AI-spending concerns, but analysts still like it.
This week's market was dominated by AI capex concerns: Alphabet's raised CAPEX guidance triggered a pullback in tech giants, but earnings fundamentals and analyst price targets remained resilient — stance: 【Neutral】
Last week (07/17–07/24), the portfolio fell 1.24%, underperforming the S&P 500's -0.60% over the same period; it is up 9.27% year-to-date, leading the S&P 500's 8.98% by 29 basis points.
After fees, the representative account's performance versus the benchmark across periods is as follows:
| Period | Opportunity Equity Representative Account (Net of Fees) | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Last week (07/17–07/24) | -1.24% | -0.60% |
| Month-to-date (MTD) | -0.86% | -1.11% |
| Quarter-to-date (QTD) | -0.86% | -1.11% |
| Year-to-date (YTD) | 9.27% | 8.98% |
| 1 year | 24.55% | 17.88% |
| 3 years | 23.28% | 19.21% |
| 5 years | 5.96% | 12.54% |
| 10 years | 14.12% | 14.95% |
| Since inception on 2000/06/26 (annualized) | 8.65% | 8.42% |
According to the author's list of contributors and detractors, the upside names this week include Precigen, Inc. (PGEN), General Motors Co (GM), Citigroup Inc. (C), and Seadrill Limited (SDRL); the downside names include Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Chime Financial Inc (CHYM), and People Inc. (PPLI). This weekly report did not disclose portfolio-level buy or sell transactions; the stocks above are all existing holdings and are marked as "Held/Not disclosed" below.
GM's revenue and adjusted EPS both beat expectations, and the company raised its FY2026 guidance; the stock price broke above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
(Hold/Not Stated) The company reported revenue of $48.0B (market expected $46.6B) and adjusted EPS of $3.57 (expected $3.19); the midpoint of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised from $12.50 to $13.00. During the quarter, it repurchased 25 million shares (about 3% of shares outstanding), bringing year-to-date cumulative repurchases to 36 million shares (about 4%). After the earnings report, Barclays raised its target price from $105 to $110 (33% upside), believing that management's upwardly revised guidance remains conservative, and noted that the company's sustained operational strength could lead to a valuation rerating. The stock posted a net return of +8.6% last week.
Goldman Sachs raised its Citigroup target price, Seadrill reclaimed its 50-day moving average as Brent crude rose, and Precigen advanced amid quiet news flow.
Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) (Hold/Not stated): Advanced amid quiet news flow, with a net return of +9.1% last week; its 2034 Warrants (Warrant 2034) returned +10.6%.
Citigroup Inc. (C) (Hold/Not stated): Goldman Sachs raised its target price from $155 to $161 (22% upside), citing continued execution of the company's strategic transformation and steady progress toward its FY2026 11% tangible common equity return (ROTCE) target. Net return of +2.2% last week.
Seadrill Limited (SDRL) (Hold/Not stated): With Brent crude up 9.9% last week, the share price reclaimed its 50-day moving average, posting a net return of +4.2%.
Alphabet's revenue, adjusted EPS, and cloud revenue all beat expectations, but its FY2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised, and the stock fell below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
The report states: "The stock likely traded lower in response to Alphabet raising its FY2026 capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance from $185B at the midpoint to $200B," meaning that "the stock declined, likely in response to Alphabet raising its FY2026 capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance at the midpoint from $185B to $200B." Based on the original report's methodology, this equates to roughly 119% year-over-year growth. Last week, the stock posted a net return of -7.8%.
On fundamentals, the company reported revenue of $119.8B (vs. $117.2B expected), adjusted EPS of $3.50 (vs. $3.14 expected), and Google Cloud revenue of $24.8B (vs. $22.5B expected), with year-over-year growth accelerating from 63% in the prior quarter to 82%. The author acknowledges this is a textbook case of "earnings beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines with accelerating cloud growth," meaning the fundamentals themselves were not the drag. Following the earnings release, Barclays raised its target price from $405 to $425 (33% upside) and increased its forecasts for 2027 cloud revenue and operating profit.
Alphabet's Higher Capex Guidance Fuels AI Spending Concerns; Amazon and Meta Both Break Below Key Moving Averages as Analysts Respond with Target Price Hikes.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) (Hold/Not Disclosed): Broke below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, posting a net return of -6.1% last week. The author attributes the decline to Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance. Following GOOGL's earnings, Bank of America raised its forecasts for 2Q AWS revenue and operating profit while maintaining its $310 price target (34% upside).
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) (Hold/Not Disclosed): Broke below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, posting a net return of -7.9% last week. The author likewise connects the decline to Alphabet's CAPEX guidance. Raymond James raised its price target from $825 to $850 (43% upside), citing the company's "optionality" to sell excess compute capacity into the AI cloud market and monetize it at an attractive ROIC.
Chime Financial falls below the 200-day moving average but receives bullish first coverage; People Inc declines amid quiet news flow.
Chime Financial Inc (CHYM) (Hold / Not disclosed): Fell below the 200-day moving average, with a net return of -7.3% last week. Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage with a $26 price target (26% upside), highlighting its structural cost advantage over traditional banks and citing Chime's first GAAP-profitable quarter as evidence that operating leverage improves as scale expands.
People Inc. (PPLI) (Hold / Not disclosed): Fell below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages amid quiet news flow, with a net return of -6.4% last week.
| Ticker | Direction | Author's Stance (One Sentence) | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) | Hold/Observe | Earnings beat across the board, but the higher CAPEX guidance sent the stock lower; analysts nevertheless raised the price target to $425 | Revenue $119.8B (est. $117.2B), adjusted EPS $3.50 (est. $3.14), cloud revenue $24.8B (est. $22.5B, +82% YoY), CAPEX guidance $185B→$200B, weekly net return -7.8% |
| Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) | Hold/Observe | Decline attributed to Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance; analysts remain bullish | Broke below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages; BofA maintains a $310 price target (34% upside), weekly net return -6.1% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) | Hold/Observe | Dragged down by Alphabet's CAPEX guidance; analysts raised the price target on the "option value" of AI compute monetization | Broke below the 50/100/200-day moving averages; Raymond James price target $825→$850 (43% upside), weekly net return -7.9% |
| General Motors Co (GM) | Hold/Observe | Beat on both top and bottom lines with raised guidance; management guidance viewed as conservative, potentially driving a valuation re-rating | Revenue $48.0B (est. $46.6B), adjusted EPS $3.57 (est. $3.19), FY2026 guidance midpoint $12.50→$13.00, repurchased 25 million shares (~3%), Barclays price target $105→$110 (33% upside), weekly net return +8.6% |
| Citigroup Inc. (C) | Hold/Observe | Goldman Sachs affirms execution of the strategic transformation, raises price target | Price target $155→$161 (22% upside), advancing toward FY2026 11% ROTCE target, weekly net return +2.2% |
| Chime Financial Inc (CHYM) | Hold/Observe | Initiated with a bullish view, highlighting structural cost advantages and operating leverage | Broke below the 200-day moving average; Freedom Capital Markets price target $26 (26% upside), weekly net return -7.3% |
| People Inc. (PPLI) | Hold/Observe | Drifted lower amid a quiet news flow; no new positive catalysts | Broke below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, weekly net return -6.4% |
| Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) | Hold/Observe | Moved higher amid a quiet news flow, with warrants outperforming | Common stock weekly net return +9.1%, 2034 warrants weekly net return +10.6% |
| Seadrill Limited (SDRL) | Hold/Observe | Reclaimed the 50-day moving average as Brent crude rose | Brent crude +9.9% last week, weekly net return +4.2% |