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Patient Capital ManagementQuarterly10 Oct 2025Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

3Q25 Portfolio Recap

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This report explains how a fund manager adjusted his portfolio in the third quarter. He focuses on two stocks: Precigen (a small biotech company developing a rare disease drug) and UnitedHealth (a health insurance giant). He believes Precigen's new drug still has about 80% upside, and UnitedHealth's profit could double in three to five years despite current industry headwinds. For ordinary investors, the takeaway is: don't just chase hot stocks; look for undervalued ones. Also, understand what you're buying rather than following hype. It's worth reading because it shows how professionals balance risk and reward.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Patient Capital's Patient Opportunity Equity Strategy delivered strong performance in the third quarter, with a return of 14.1%, significantly outperforming the benchmark S&P 500's 8.1%; year-to-date return stands at 18.9%, also ahead of the S&P 500's 14.8%. Since taking over at the end of 2022, the

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter primarily discusses the investment performance and portfolio adjustments of Patient Capital's Patient Opportunity Equity Strategy in the third quarter. The report notes that while rising market valuations have reduced new opportunities, the fund manager maintains high confidence in the existing portfolio, with a focused analysis of the investment logic behind two core holdings: Precigen (PGEN) and UnitedHealth (UNH).

Core Views

The author's core investment thesis is: in the late stages of a bull market, balance "letting winners run" with "redeploying capital into mispriced laggards." Counterintuitive judgments include: 1) Despite Precigen's significant rally, the papillomatosis indication still offers approximately 80% upside, and if the entire pipeline succeeds, the value could reach 10-15 times current levels; 2) UnitedHealth faces industry headwinds, but the author believes its business remains intact, with earnings capable of doubling over the next 3-5 years.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Precigen (PGEN): In December 2024, a private investment was made via preferred shares and warrants, with the stock trading at approximately $0.75 at the time of the transaction. The FDA granted early approval for Papzimeos, with a label scope exceeding expectations. The stock surged from $1.71 at the end of July to over $5 post-approval, before pulling back to $3.00. The company subsequently secured a $125 million credit facility. The author's valuation for the papillomatosis indication is approximately $5.50 (including international), representing roughly 80% upside from the current price; if the entire pipeline succeeds, the company's value potential could reach 10-15 times current levels.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH): A position was established in the second quarter at an average cost of $289.79, with additional purchases during the third-quarter decline, making it the fifth-largest holding. The author believes the company's earnings can double within 3-5 years, achieving low-to-mid-teens compound growth.
  • Portfolio Structure: Approximately 43% of the portfolio is allocated to momentum areas (AI/tech, cryptocurrencies, financials), with the remainder in high-conviction laggards. The healthcare sector accounts for 26.2% of the portfolio (19.8% excluding Precigen).

Comparative Data Table:

Metric Patient Opportunity Equity Strategy S&P 500
Q3 Return 14.1% 8.1%
Year-to-Date Return 18.9% 14.8%
Annualized Return Since End of 2022 31.5% 24.1%

Companies/Assets Involved

  • Precigen (PGEN $3.19): The largest quarterly contributor, adding over 500 basis points. Bullish, but partially reduced to manage risk.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH $367.69): Fifth-largest holding, average cost $289.79. Bullish, with the view that earnings can double.
  • QXO (QXO $19.73): A non-momentum winner, bullish.
  • Royalty Pharma (RPRX $36.14): A non-momentum winner, bullish.
  • Expedia (EXPE $216.81): A non-momentum winner, bullish.
  • Crocs (CROX $80.39): Faces tariff headwinds but offers a 15% free cash flow yield, bullish.
  • Mattel (MAT $18.10): Next year will be a pivotal year for its transition to a digital IP company, bullish.
  • IAC ($33.41): Extremely undervalued, with Barry Diller focused on narrowing the value gap, bullish.
  • Biogen (BIIB $149.61): Multiple sclerosis business under pressure, but pipeline value is not properly priced by the market, bullish.

Investment Implications

  • For Precigen: The current price still offers approximately 80% upside (based on the papillomatosis indication valuation), but the binary risk of drug development is extremely high, requiring investors to accept high volatility. If the entire pipeline succeeds, potential returns could reach 10-15 times, though the probability of success is low.
  • For UnitedHealth: The current valuation reflects industry headwinds, but the author views this as a classic insurance cycle. Earnings recovery will take several years, but long-term compound returns could reach low-to-mid teens. Suitable for patient capital.
  • Portfolio Strategy: In the late stages of a bull market, balance momentum positions (AI/tech, cryptocurrencies, financials) with high-conviction laggards (Crocs, Mattel, IAC, Biogen). The healthcare sector provides diversification and stability.