Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.
This report explains how the Miller Opportunity Equity fund performed in early 2022. It lost 7.12%, worse than the S&P 500's 4.6% drop. The reason: energy stocks (like Ovintiv and Diamondback, oil companies) and steel stocks (like Cleveland-Cliffs) did well, but consumer tech (like Farfetch, a luxury fashion site) and social media (Meta, Facebook's parent) tanked. For regular investors, it shows that betting on commodities can pay off when prices rise, but growth stocks can be risky if their business weakens. Worth a read because it uses real numbers to show why stock picking matters.
Miller Opportunity Equity posted a total return of -7.12% (net of fees) in the first quarter of 2022, underperforming its benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, which returned -4.60%. Attribution analysis indicates that stock selection and interaction effects detracted from performance, partially offset by a
This chapter analyzes the performance of the Miller Opportunity Equity fund in the first quarter of 2022. The fund posted a total return of -7.12% after fees, underperforming its benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, which returned -4.60%. The report uses attribution analysis to break down the sources of excess returns and discusses in detail the top five positive contributors and the top five negative contributors.
The author's core investment thesis is: The strong performance of the energy and steel sectors was the main positive contributor to the portfolio, while weakness in consumer tech and social media stocks severely dragged down results. The report emphasizes that the portfolio's overweight positions in energy and industrial sectors (such as Ovintiv, Diamondback, and Cleveland-Cliffs) captured opportunities from rising commodity prices, but heavy holdings in growth companies like Farfetch and Meta suffered significant declines due to deteriorating fundamentals.
Counter-intuitive/Contrarian Judgments:
Comparative Data Table:
| Company | Quarterly Return | Key Financial Data | 2022 Guidance/Expectations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ovintiv (OVV) | +60.76% | Q4 EBITDA $786M (below consensus $928M), FCF $320M (below consensus $439M) | 2022 FCF $2.9B (FCF yield 19.3%) |
| Diamondback (FANG) | +27.92% | Q4 Revenue $2.1B (above consensus $1.7B), EPS $3.63 (above consensus $3.37) | 2022 FCF $4B (FCF yield 16.1%) |
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) | +63.86% | Q4 Revenue $5.35B, EBITDA $1.46B (both below consensus) | 2022 Avg. Price $1,225/metric ton, $1B buyback plan |
| Farfetch (FTCH) | -55.31% | Q4 Revenue $666M (below consensus $672M), EBITDA $36.1M (below consensus $38.8M) | 2022 GMV Growth 28-32%, EBITDA Margin 1-2% |
| Meta Platforms (FB) | -33.73% | Q4 Revenue $33.7B (above consensus $33.4B), EPS $3.67 (below consensus $3.85) | Q1 Revenue Guidance $27-29B (below consensus $30.2B), iOS Impact $10B |
This section lists several other Miller Value Partners research reports published concurrently with the current report, including Samantha McLemore's Opportunity Equity quarterly commentary and Christina Siegel's market highlights. These contents aim to provide readers with supplementary analysis from the same institution under different strategies or perspectives.
By enumerating these "related articles," the author implies that investors should combine perspectives from different fund managers to understand the market. The core judgment is that the performance of a single strategy (e.g., Opportunity Equity's -7.12%) needs to be interpreted within a broader market context (e.g., Christina Siegel's macro analysis) to avoid one-sided conclusions.
This section does not provide new data or analysis, serving only as an index. However, in context, the performance data of the Opportunity Equity strategy (-7.12% vs. the S&P 500's -4.60%) contrasts with Christina Siegel's market commentary, suggesting the impact of the macro environment (e.g., interest rates, inflation) on stock-picking strategies.
This section does not mention specific companies or assets.
Investors should proactively consult macro market commentaries published by the same institution (e.g., Christina Siegel's report) to verify or revise conclusions drawn from the performance of a single strategy. For example, if Opportunity Equity's negative returns are primarily driven by Consumer Discretionary and Meta Platforms, it is necessary to confirm whether the macro report identifies consumer weakness or declining advertising spending as systemic risks.