Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.
This weekly update says the Opportunity Equity portfolio fell 1.16% last week, but still beat the S&P 500's 1.55% decline; it is up 10.64% year to date, about one percentage point ahead of the index. The tone is neutral: strong earnings didn't help stocks. Citigroup (C) beat estimates and announced a $30B buyback, yet shares fell 8%. United Airlines (UAL) raised its full-year profit guidance, yet fell 8.4%. Nvidia (NVDA) slipped below its 50-day moving average (average closing price over 50 days) and lost 3.9%.
The author's stance this period [Neutral]: The portfolio fell 1.16% for the week, continuing to outperform the S&P 500, with a YTD lead of 100 basis points, but individual stocks diverged sharply — names with earnings beats fell sharply instead.
The portfolio fell 1.16% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's -1.55%, with a YTD return of 10.64%, leading the benchmark by 100 basis points.
Performance comparison: The Opportunity Equity representative account posted a net return of -1.16% for the week (07/10–07/17), versus -1.55% for the S&P 500; MTD 0.39% vs -0.52%, QTD the same; YTD 10.64% vs 9.64%; 1-year 27.83% vs 19.85%; 3-year 23.70% vs 19.74%; 5-year 6.88% vs 13.12% (lagging by about 624 basis points); 10-year 14.41% vs 15.10% (lagging by 69 basis points); Since inception (annualized from 6/26/2000) 8.71% vs 8.45%.
| Period | Opportunity Equity | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Last Week (07/10–07/17) | -1.16% | -1.55% |
| MTD | 0.39% | -0.52% |
| QTD | 0.39% | -0.52% |
| YTD | 10.64% | 9.64% |
| 1 Year | 27.83% | 19.85% |
| 3 Years | 23.70% | 19.74% |
| 5 Years | 6.88% | 13.12% |
| 10 Years | 14.41% | 15.10% |
| Since Inception (Annualized) | 8.71% | 8.45% |
RPRX and CVS hit 52-week highs, ADBE broke above its 50-day moving average, CHYM reclaimed its 200-day moving average, and SDRL rose 6.7% following Brent crude.
The author uses the heading to highlight this week's contrast — United fell 8.4% despite beating expectations and raising guidance, while Citi also fell 8.1% despite a significant beat.
Citigroup Inc. (C) (not specified): weekly net return of -8.1%, falling below its 50-day moving average, despite revenue of $24.8B beating the expected $23.7B and EPS of $3.15 well above the expected $2.70. Management reiterated its FY26 ROTCE target of 10–11%, while 1H26 actual results were approximately 13%; a new $30B buyback program was authorized, with $4B repurchased during the quarter (2% of market cap) and $10.3B repurchased year-to-date (5% of market cap). Jefferies maintained a Buy rating but cut its target from $180 to $165 (28% upside), citing expectations of lower 2H26 ROTCE; the firm still expects ROTCE to reach 14–15% in FY27–28.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) (not specified): weekly net return of -8.4%, despite revenue of $17.7B beating the expected $17.5B and adjusted EPS of $1.99 beating the expected $1.85, while raising the midpoint of FY26 adjusted EPS guidance from $9 to $10. JP Morgan raised its target from $156 to $203 (76% upside), expecting premium airlines to continue outperforming low-cost carriers and believing the premium segment may be on the verge of a broader re-rating cycle.
NVDA fell 3.9% for the week and broke below its 50-day moving average; Wells Fargo still maintains a $315 target; PGEN declined on limited news, with warrants and stock down 6.4% and 7.0%, respectively.
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) (not specified): weekly net return of -3.9%, falling below its 50-day moving average. Wells Fargo maintains a $315 target (55% upside) citing long-term growth trajectory, and believes NVDA should not trade at a discount to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) on a P/E basis.
Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) (not specified): declined on limited news; Precigen Warrant 2034 fell 6.4% for the week, while the stock fell 7.0%.
| Position | Direction | Weekly Net Return | Key Information |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royalty Pharma (RPRX) | Not specified | +3.1% | TD Cowen target $50→$65, 52-week high |
| Chime Financial (CHYM) | Not specified | +6.7% | Reclaimed 200-day moving average |
| Seadrill (SDRL) | Not specified | +6.4% | Followed Brent crude up 6.7% |
| Adobe (ADBE) | Not specified | +6.1% | Broke above 50-day moving average |
| CVS Health (CVS) | Not specified | +3.2% | Wells Fargo target $103→$123, 52-week high |
| Citigroup (C) | Not specified | -8.1% | Revenue/EPS both beat; $30B new buyback; Jefferies target $180→$165 |
| United Airlines (UAL) | Not specified | -8.4% | Beat and raised guidance; JP Morgan target $156→$203 |
| Precigen (PGEN) | Not specified | -7.0% | Declined on limited news; warrants -6.4% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Not specified | -3.9% | Broke below 50-day line; Wells Fargo maintains $315 target |
| Ticker | Direction | Analyst Take | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup (C) | Not indicated | Earnings beat significantly but the stock fell against the trend; Jefferies cut its price target | Weekly -8.1%; Revenue $24.8B vs. estimate $23.7B, EPS $3.15 vs. estimate $2.70; New $30B buyback, QTD buyback $4B (2% of market cap), YTD buyback $10.3B (5% of market cap); Jefferies PT $180→$165 |
| United Airlines (UAL) | Not indicated | Beat expectations and raised guidance, yet fell sharply; JP Morgan significantly raised its price target | Weekly -8.4%; Revenue $17.7B vs. estimate $17.5B, adjusted EPS $1.99 vs. estimate $1.85; FY26 guidance midpoint $9→$10; JP Morgan PT $156→$203 |
| Royalty Pharma (RPRX) | Not indicated | TD Cowen raised its price target; stock hit a 52-week high | Weekly +3.1%; PT $50→$65 (12% upside) |
| Chime Financial (CHYM) | Not indicated | Reclaimed the 200-day moving average | Weekly +6.7% |
| Seadrill (SDRL) | Not indicated | Rallied in tandem with Brent crude | Weekly +6.4%; Brent crude +6.7% for the week |
| Adobe (ADBE) | Not indicated | Broke above the 50-day moving average on limited news flow | Weekly +6.1% |
| CVS Health (CVS) | Not indicated | Wells Fargo raised its price target; stock hit a 52-week high | Weekly +3.2%; PT $103→$123 (14% upside) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Not indicated | Fell below the 50-day moving average; Wells Fargo maintained its price target | Weekly -3.9%; PT maintained at $315 (55% upside) |
| Precigen (PGEN) | Not indicated | Moved lower on limited news flow | Stock: weekly -7.0%; warrants (2034): weekly -6.4% |