Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.
This week's update covers the Opportunity Equity portfolio, which beat the S&P 500 and is ahead by 2.46 percentage points for the year. The manager is broadly optimistic but flags a newly bought, not-yet-disclosed derivative—a financial product that can swing sharply—down about 32% in the week. Key holdings: Amazon rose after strong earnings and faster AWS cloud growth, with Goldman raising its price view to $375 from $335; Meta fell 6.5% on a profit miss and soft guidance; Crocs beat estimates, raised its profit outlook and bought back shares, yet the stock still dropped 5%.
In this reporting period, the Opportunity Equity strategy outperformed the S&P 500. The author holds a 【positive】 view on overall portfolio performance, but cautions that the undisclosed new derivative position carries material drawdown volatility.
The Opportunity Equity strategy representative account rose 3.05% last week (07/24-07/31), outperforming the S&P 500's 1.06%, with a year-to-date return of 12.60%, leading the index by 246 basis points.
Performance comparison: The representative account returned +3.05% after fees last week (S&P 500 +1.06%), with MTD and QTD both at +2.17% (S&P 500 -0.06%); YTD 12.60% vs. 10.14%. Over longer horizons, 1-year 29.99% vs. 19.56% and 3-year 23.41% vs. 19.32% both outperformed; however, 5-year (6.71% vs. 12.86%) and 10-year (14.36% vs. 15.08%) still lag; since inception on June 26, 2000, the annualized return is 8.77%, slightly above the S&P 500's 8.46%.
| Period | Opportunity Equity | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Last week (07/24-07/31) | 3.05% | 1.06% |
| MTD | 2.17% | -0.06% |
| QTD | 2.17% | -0.06% |
| YTD | 12.60% | 10.14% |
| 1 Year | 29.99% | 19.56% |
| 3 Year | 23.41% | 19.32% |
| 5 Year | 6.71% | 12.86% |
| 10 Year | 14.36% | 15.08% |
| Since Inception (Annualized) | 8.77% | 8.46% |
Amazon (AMZN, Hold/Watch): Earnings significantly exceeded expectations, with AWS revenue growth accelerating from 28% in Q1 to 38%; the stock broke above its 50/100/200-day moving averages, contributing 17.0% to the portfolio's return for the week.
Revenue was $201B (up 20% YoY), above the expected $197B; operating income was $27.5B (up 43% YoY), far exceeding the expected $23.6B. AWS growth was the fastest in 18 quarters. Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $335 to $375 (38% upside), arguing that operating margin expansion proves the company is seeing meaningful returns on its AI investments; Goldman reiterated that "Amazon remains one of the most compelling names in its coverage" — meaning "Amazon remains one of the most attractive names in its coverage," given its exposure to long-term structural growth opportunities.
Alphabet (GOOGL, Hold/Watch) recovered its 100/200-day moving averages; Precigen (PGEN) hit a 52-week high, with its equity and warrants jointly contributing over 15%; Adobe (ADBE) broke above its 50/100-day moving averages amid limited news flow.
Google pulled back last week after its capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlook came in higher than expected, but recovered this week. Loop maintained its $490 price target (38% upside), arguing that market estimates for 2027 cloud revenue are "far too conservative." Precigen's equity rose 16.1% for the week, while the warrants expiring in 2034 rose 15.4%; Adobe rose 11.2%.
Meta (META, Hold/Watch): Earnings were mixed. EPS of $6.18 was about 14% below expectations, with 3Q26 revenue guidance and CAPEX guidance both soft; the stock fell 6.5% for the week.
Revenue of $61B slightly exceeded the expected $60B, but EPS of $6.18 came in well below the expected $7.15; the midpoint of 3Q26 revenue guidance was $62.5B, below the market's expectation of $63B; FY26 CAPEX guidance was narrowed from $125B-$145B to $130B-$145B (the low end raised by $5B). Citi cut its price target from $850 to $800 (53% upside) due to elevated spending, but maintained a Buy rating, citing AI-driven engagement gains, broader adoption of new AI tools, and potential monetization opportunities from new product lines.
Crocs (CROX, Hold/Watch): Results beat expectations and guidance was raised; the company repurchased roughly 5% of shares outstanding during the quarter, with authorization equal to about 31% of market cap, yet the stock still fell 5.0%.
Revenue of $1,179M beat the expected $1,148M; adjusted EPS of $4.55 beat the expected $4.35. The company raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance from $13.20-$13.75 to $13.70-$14.00. During the quarter, it repurchased 2.3 million shares (roughly 5% of shares outstanding) and added a $1.5B buyback authorization, bringing total authorization to $2B, about 31% of current market cap. Baird raised its price target from $150 to $163 (27% upside). The original report did not explain the reason for the stock's decline; it merely stated the fact that it "beat and raised guidance yet still fell."
Coinbase (COIN, Hold/Watch) fell 7.6% as both revenue and EBITDA missed expectations; Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH, Hold/Watch) fell 4.3% despite an EPS beat, as 3Q net yield guidance was weak.
Coinbase revenue was $1.2B, below the expected $1.3B; EBITDA was $208M, below the expected $322M. Citi lowered its price target from $235 to $210 (44% upside) due to recent weakness in the crypto market, but maintained a Buy, citing Coinbase's category leadership and growth potential from blockchain adoption and tokenization expansion.
NCLH revenue of $2.6B was in line, and adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat the expected $0.39, but the stock fell below its 50/100-day moving averages. The author believes the sell-off likely stemmed from management's 3Q net yield guidance of -8.9%, weaker than the expected -7.5%; the company also narrowed its FY26 EPS outlook from $1.45-$1.79 to approximately $1.50. Stifel lowered its price target from $26 to $25 (35% upside), reiterating that "the company remains in turnaround mode and the investment thesis requires patience" — meaning "the company is still in a turnaround phase, and the investment thesis requires patience."
The top drag was an undisclosed derivative position established during the quarter, with a net return of -31.9% for the week, far exceeding the declines of other laggards.
The original report refers to this position as "New Security*", with a footnote noting it was established within the quarter and the holding has not yet been publicly disclosed. This implies the portfolio holds a highly volatile, not-yet-disclosed position that was a significant drag on performance during the period; the other main laggards — Meta, Coinbase, Crocs, and NCLH — are all disclosed holdings.
There were six price target actions this week: Goldman raised Amazon, Baird raised Crocs, Loop maintained Alphabet, Citi lowered Meta and Coinbase, and Stifel lowered NCLH; on ratings, only Citi explicitly maintained Buy.
| Name | Firm | Action | Price Target Change | Upside | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | Goldman | Raise | $335 → $375 | 38% | Reiterated as one of the most attractive |
| Alphabet | Loop | Maintain | $490 | 38% | Not stated |
| Meta | Citi | Lower | $850 → $800 | 53% | Buy (Maintained) |
| Crocs | Baird | Raise | $150 → $163 | 27% | Not stated |
| Coinbase | Citi | Lower | $235 → $210 | 44% | Buy (Maintained) |
| NCLH | Stifel | Lower | $26 → $25 | 35% | Not stated |
| Ticker | Direction | Author's Stance (One-Line) | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | Hold/Watch | Earnings significantly beat expectations, AWS growth accelerated; Goldman Sachs raised its target price to $375 and reiterated it as one of the most attractive names | Revenue $201B (+20%) beat the $197B consensus; operating income $27.5B (+43%) far exceeded the $23.6B consensus; AWS growth 38%; contributed 17.0% to the portfolio for the week |
| Precigen (PGEN) | Hold/Watch | Hit a 52-week high; equity and warrants combined contributed over 15% | Equity rose 16.1% for the week; 2034-expiring warrants rose 15.4% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | Hold/Watch | Regained the 100/200-day moving averages; Loop believes market estimates for 2027 cloud revenue are "too conservative" | Loop maintained a target price of $490 (38% upside) |
| Adobe (ADBE) | Hold/Watch | Broke above the 50/100-day moving averages on limited news flow | Rose 11.2% for the week |
| Meta (META) | Hold/Watch | Mixed earnings report; EPS and guidance were on the weak side; Citi cut its target price but maintained Buy | Revenue $61B slightly beat; EPS $6.18 vs. $7.15 expected (~14% lower); 3Q26 revenue guidance midpoint of $62.5B below consensus; FY26 CAPEX guidance narrowed to $130B-$145B; fell 6.5% for the week |
| Crocs (CROX) | Hold/Watch | Beat expectations and raised guidance yet still fell 5%; buyback authorization equals 31% of market cap | Revenue $1,179M vs. $1,148M expected; adjusted EPS $4.55 vs. $4.35 expected; FY26 EPS guidance raised to $13.70-$14.00; repurchased 2.3M shares in the quarter (~5% of shares outstanding); new $1.5B buyback authorization brings the total to ~$2B (~31% of market cap); Baird raised its target price to $163 (27% upside) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | Hold/Watch | Revenue and EBITDA both missed; Citi cut its target price but maintained Buy | Revenue $1.2B vs. $1.3B expected; EBITDA $208M vs. $322M expected; Citi cut its target price from $235 to $210 (44% upside); fell 7.6% for the week |
| NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line) | Hold/Watch | EPS beat but 3Q net yield guidance was soft; the selloff may stem from guidance coming in below expectations; Stifel says "the company is still in a transition period" | Revenue $2.6B in line; adjusted EPS $0.48 vs. $0.39 expected; 3Q net yield guidance -8.9% vs. -7.5% expected; FY26 EPS outlook narrowed to ~$1.50; Stifel cut its target price from $26 to $25 (35% upside); fell 4.3% for the week |
| New Security* (Undisclosed Derivative) | New Position | Newly established in the quarter and not publicly disclosed; high volatility notably dragged on current-period performance | Weekly net return -31.9%, the top detractor |