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Patient Capital ManagementArticle19 Oct 2026Source: patientcapitalmanagement.com

Opportunity Equity Strategy Update for 10/09/2026 – 10/16/2026

Patient Capital Management is a Baltimore asset manager founded in 2020 by Samantha McLemore, CFA — Bill Miller's long-time co-manager (working together since 2002, running the flagship Opportunity Equity strategy since 2014). Continuing the Miller-school contrarian tradition, it practices "time arbitrage": exploiting behavioral mispricing to concentrate in controversial growth names (tech, healthcare, Bitcoin-related) at deep discounts to intrinsic value. Its site preserves Bill Miller's complete 1995-2022 market letters, alongside ongoing quarterly letters and webinars.

Samantha McLemore · 2020 · 美国巴尔的摩Contrarian growth-value / time arbitrage

In plain words

This report covers the Opportunity Equity fund's performance for the week of October 9-16, 2026. The fund fell 0.82%, slightly more than the S&P 500's 0.36% decline, but its long-term returns still beat the index. The report doesn't give a clear market view from the manager, but holdings suggest optimism on healthcare and AI, while caution on rising oil costs. Key holdings: UnitedHealth Group (beat earnings, stock up 5.8%), Crocs (Barclays raised target and upgraded rating, stock up 7.1%), and Nvidia (fell 6.6% on AI bond spread concerns, CEO downplayed worries).

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

At a Glance Patient Capital's Opportunity Equity Strategy fell 0.82% last week (10/09-10/16), underperforming the S&P 500's 0.36% decline, with a YTD return of 12.10%, lagging the benchmark by 128 basis points. Key thesis: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose on better-than-expected earnings, with revenue

~5 min full read · 6 sections
Deep Analysis

Monthly Report Card

Month: -0.82% vs S&P 500 -0.36%; Year-to-Date: 12.10% vs 13.38%.

Metric Fund S&P 500
Last Week (10/09-10/16) -0.82% -0.36%
Month-to-Date -2.51% 0.56%
Quarter-to-Date -2.51% 0.56%
Year-to-Date 12.10% 13.38%
1 Year 18.73% 16.75%
3 Years 31.44% 23.18%
5 Years 7.37% 12.81%
10 Years 13.28% 15.51%
Since Inception (Annualized, from 2000/6/26) 8.67% 8.51%

Who Contributed, Who Detracted

Position Contribution/Detraction One-Line Attribution
Adyen N.V. +7.5% Driven by limited news; reclaimed the 100-day moving average
CVS Health Corp +7.2% Followed UNH's earnings strength; reclaimed above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Royalty Pharma plc +7.1% Driven by limited news; broke above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages
Crocs, Inc. +7.1% Barclays raised the price target and upgraded to Overweight
UnitedHealth Group +5.8% Reclaimed the 50-day and 100-day moving averages after a better-than-expected earnings report
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. -10.6% Dragged down by a 10.4% rise in WTI crude oil
Precigen, Inc. Warrant 2034 -19.8% Declined on limited news
Precigen, Inc. -18.2% Declined on limited news; broke below the 50-day moving average
Nvidia Corp -6.6% CoreWeave bond spread widening sparked AI concerns
Amazon.com, Inc. -4.7% Wells Fargo lowered margin expectations

Individual Stock Commentary

  • UnitedHealth Group (UNH): The better-than-expected earnings report was the week's biggest highlight. Revenue was $112.7 billion (estimate $111.0 billion), EPS was $4.56 (estimate $3.83), and the midpoint of FY2026 EPS guidance was raised from $18.70 to above $19.50. Goldman Sachs raised the price target from $490 to $506 (26% upside), citing faster-than-expected recovery in Medicare Advantage margins and additional earnings potential from Optum Health and Medicaid. Goldman Sachs believes this quarter provides further evidence that a cyclical recovery is underway.
  • Crocs (CROX): Barclays raised the price target from $118 to $139 (13% upside) and upgraded the rating from Equal Weight to Overweight. Barclays believes visibility into sustainable revenue growth is improving, driven by product innovation, international expansion, and a potential turnaround for HEYDUDE. New products beyond the classic Clog are gaining market traction, and the company's expansion in key markets such as China, India, and Western Europe remains in early stages.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Broke below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages due to AI trade concerns triggered by a significant widening of CoreWeave bond spreads. CEO Jensen Huang downplayed concerns, emphasizing that CoreWeave's financial position is improving and reiterating that AI's benefits will outweigh investor worries.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Broke below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $338 to $329 (32% upside), citing downward revisions to FY2026–FY2028 operating margin expectations to reflect higher-than-expected fuel prices.
  • United Airlines (UAL): The stock fell due to a 10.4% increase in WTI crude oil. UBS maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $146 to $139 (45% upside).

Manager's Market View

[Cautious] The report does not express a clear view on the overall market, but indirectly reflects optimism toward specific sectors (healthcare, AI) and vigilance toward macro costs (oil prices) through position performance and external commentary. Position structure data such as net exposure, leverage, and long/short ratio were not disclosed.

Position Moves: Where to Add, Where to Reduce

The report did not disclose any new positions, additions, reductions, or closures. All mentioned positions are existing holdings, with price fluctuations driven by market events rather than portfolio adjustments. No sector, theme, or geographic capital movements were mentioned. Changes in net exposure, long/short ratio, or leverage were not disclosed.

Fund Matters

The report did not disclose any changes in fund size, investor communications, or risk warnings.