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Hosking Partners Letters & Research Archive

Hosking Partners is a London boutique founded in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management for over 25 years. It runs a single global equity strategy built on the capital-cycle, supply-side approach — contrarian, long-term, and unusually diversified (350+ holdings) under a multi-counsellor model, managing around $5.5bn.

99 pieces · 2015–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

10-16Search Engine to Steam EngineThis report says the AI investment boom is showing cracks, with US tech giants forced into a spending war while Chinese firms show better capital discipline. The author is cautious, noting early signs…→10-16Q3 2026 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says the fund manager is cautious about the AI infrastructure boom, warning it could become commoditized like solar power. The fund returned +3.5% this quarter and +19.3% year-to-date, bea…→09-10‘Death of the Brand’ or dearth of thought?This report argues that the belief in brand 'moats' is a bubble. Since 2017, the author has bet against big brands (like Nestle, Unilever, Diageo) and for retailers (Costco, Kroger, Walmart, Tesco). S…→08-24Q2 2026 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report shows how a fund uses voting and buying to back its beliefs. In 2025 it bought Studsvik, a Swedish nuclear services firm, betting nuclear power is key for clean energy and security, though…→08-10Merryn Talks Money - The Capital Cycle Is Turning→07-20Q2 2026 - Quarterly Report CommentaryThe market is experiencing one of the biggest momentum rallies in history, with 85% of gains coming from AI-related stocks. Four stocks alone (Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, Sandisk) are expected to contri…→07-16Fit for PurposeWhen choosing a fund, don't just look at the star manager. Research shows that a fund's internal structure—like whether decisions are made by a team of independent managers or a single person—explains…→07-09Value Investing with Legends PodcastThis deep-dive analyzed a legal disclaimer from Hosking Partners LLP—just regulatory registrations and standard risk warnings. It contains no investment insights, market analysis, or actionable ideas.…→07-02'Normal' Service ResumesThis report argues that today's market volatility and rising bankruptcies aren't signs of trouble—they show the market is returning to normal after a decade of unusually low interest rates and low vol…→06-09Super cycle or capital cycle?This report looks at the three big memory-chip makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron), whose stocks have surged 5–8x in the past year to over $1 trillion each. The author argues that while AI is boosting…→06-03Paint by numbersThis report explains why several companies in our portfolio have been targeted for cheap buyouts by industry rivals. It's not because the market is overheated, but because investors are distracted by…→05-26Ed Conway on ‘The Material World’ – Spring Drinks 2026This report explains that Hosking Partners, an asset manager, is legally registered in the UK, US, South Africa, and Australia, but only serves professional clients (like wealthy institutions or indiv…→05-20SynconaThis analysis explains why Syncona, a biotech investment company, is a good bet right now. Unlike normal funds that must return money after 10 years, Syncona has permanent capital from the Wellcome Tr…→05-19Q1 2026 - ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report argues that investors shouldn't automatically rule out companies in 'dirty' industries like mining. It highlights Altius Minerals, a Canadian royalty company that doesn't operate mines but…→05-06Business Breakdowns Podcast - Altius MineralsThis report is a legal notice from Hosking Partners, explaining they only serve professional investors (like institutions or wealthy individuals) in the UK, US, and South Africa. For regular investors…→04-23Asian Investing Summit - MOI GlobalThis is a legal notice from Hosking Partners, an investment firm. It explains which countries they operate in and who they can serve: for example, only professional clients in the UK, accredited inves…→04-20Q1 2026 - Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report explains how Hosking Partners performed in early 2026 by focusing on industries where companies have cut back on spending and consolidated. For example, the memory chip industry went from…→04-16First Impressions: Q&A with Michael GodfreyThis interview shows how new manager Michael Godfrey uses a 'capital cycle' approach—tracking where money flows and how industries change—to find undervalued stocks. For regular investors, it means: d…→04-01TCFD Report: Product-LevelThis report from Hosking Partners shares their fund’s 2025 carbon data. They avoid complex climate models like CVaR (a risk measure) and temperature-alignment (predicting warming), preferring to analy…→04-01TCFD Report: Entity-LevelThis report explains how a long-term investment firm handles climate change. Instead of setting quick emission targets, they treat climate risk as a complex, long-term issue that investment managers j…→03-27Money of MineThis is a legal notice from Hosking Partners, an investment firm. It says they only work with professional clients (like institutions or wealthy individuals), not regular retail investors. It also war…→03-17Babcock International - March 2026This report is about Babcock International, a UK defense engineering firm that maintains nuclear submarines and naval bases. Despite rising defense spending after the Ukraine war, its stock was underv…→03-12The saga of Saga PlcThis article explains how Hosking Partners found a hidden gem in Saga Plc, a UK company serving over-50s. They're optimistic, saying the stock could rise 5x more after already jumping 8x from its 2022…→03-06The saga of Saga PlcThis report explains how to find stocks that could rise 10x. The author's simple method: look for stocks with a future P/E (price vs. expected profit) near 1x—meaning the market is practically giving…→03-03Star Mica: Finding value in occupied assetsThis article explains how Star Mica, a Japanese company, profits by buying apartments with tenants (which are 15-20% cheaper than empty ones due to strong tenant protection laws), collecting rent, the…→02-26In the Company of MavericksThis report is actually a legal disclaimer, not investment advice. It says the material is only for qualified professional investors in places like the UK, US, and Australia. There are no stock picks…→02-26Q4 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report argues that ESG ratings (scores for a company's environmental, social, and governance practices) are often unreliable because different agencies can give the same company wildly different…→01-26The investment case for diversificationThis report argues against the popular idea that you need to concentrate your bets on a few stocks to make money. Instead, it claims diversification—spreading investments across many stocks—is the bet…→01-19Q4 2025 - Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report explains how Hosking Partners beat the market in 2025 by using a 'capital cycle' strategy—buying unloved companies with improving fundamentals and avoiding overhyped stocks. They earned 33…→

2025

11-18Q3 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report shows how Hosking Partners, an investment firm, makes money by actively talking to company management. For example, they owned shares in Shelf Drilling, an offshore oil rig company. When a…→10-16Q3 2025 - Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says global stock markets are shifting: US stocks, especially tech, are at record-high valuations (like price-to-earnings ratios), and AI spending may not pay off. Meanwhile, Japan, UK, an…→10-03PGM updateThis report is about platinum group metals (PGMs), rare metals used in car exhaust systems and jewelry. The author argues that despite big price gains this year, the real super-cycle is just beginning…→09-19African Allocator PodcastThis report is a legal notice from Hosking Partners, an investment firm. It explains that they only work with professional clients, like institutions or wealthy individuals, not regular retail investo…→09-16The AI Paradox: Capital QuestionsThis report highlights a paradox in AI: tools like ChatGPT have millions of users but few profitable companies, while firms pour billions into data centers. OpenAI is valued at $500 billion but may bu…→09-03Q2 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report looks at Toyota Motor's lowball buyout of Toyota Industries (TICO). Toyota offered 16,300 yen per share, but TICO's Toyota shares alone are worth 3.2 trillion yen, plus it has profitable f…→09-03Meeting the challenges of a changing worldThis report highlights investment opportunities in Japan's stock market, but warns about a common trap: controlling shareholders may use low stock prices to buy out minority investors at unfair prices…→08-15UK Stewardship CodeThis report explains how Hosking Partners manages money. Instead of chasing popular stocks, they invest in unloved, low-profit companies where industries are consolidating, expecting a turnaround. The…→07-17Q2 2025 - Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report explains how Hosking Partners navigated the tariff shock in Q2 2025 by investing in cheap, non-U.S. stocks (like Korean banks, Japanese tools, and platinum miners). They beat the market by…→06-17A Tale of Two Neighbours: The Tiger and the LionThis report compares two neighboring stock markets: India's is expensive (24 times earnings) while Sri Lanka's is cheap (10 times). The author warns that India may be overvalued and risky, while Sri L…→06-17Sri Lanka: You Will Come Back for MoreThis report argues that severe economic crises in emerging markets, like Sri Lanka's 2022 debt default, can create great investment opportunities. After the crisis, some companies were valued far belo…→05-28The Capital Cycle WayThis report explains how to make investment predictions for 10+ years. The key method is called the 'capital cycle'—focus on supply, not demand. For example, when an industry goes from 100+ companies…→05-26MetamorphosisThis report says European chemical stocks are deeply out of favor—profits are at 15-year lows and many investors think the industry is doomed. But the author disagrees: several companies trade below t…→05-20Q1 2025 - ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report argues that European chemical stocks are extremely cheap, with market values below the cost of rebuilding their factories. The industry hit a low due to an energy crisis and inventory glut…→04-15Q1 2025 Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says the market is shifting away from US tech giants. The author is skeptical about the AI boom, having sold all Nvidia shares and cut positions in Broadcom and Applied Materials, arguing…→04-10Plunging share prices and soaring ‘known unknowns’This report says Hosking Partners chose to sit tight during the tariff-driven market plunge rather than panic-sell. They believe the selloff confirms that markets were too focused on tech stocks and p…→03-31Reflections from Mexico and ArgentinaThis report is about a fund manager's trip to Mexico and Argentina to check on two investments. First, Cemex, a Mexican building materials firm that was once in trouble but is now investment-grade, ye…→02-04A Part of the MainThis report argues that traditional ESG investing focuses too much on environment and governance, ignoring the 'social' factor—things like community relations and AI safety—which are becoming key to p…→02-03Q4 2024 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report says that in 2024, social issues (like how the energy transition affects communities) will replace decarbonization as the new focus in responsible investing. The author, Hosking Partners,…→

2024

12-31Q4 2024 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report argues that US growth stocks (like tech giants) are overvalued, while traditional value stocks (energy, materials) may be due for a comeback. The fund manager is cautious, attributing unde…→11-12From Darkness, Light?This report argues that the old ESG investing approach is dead and should be replaced by a simpler 'two-label' system: funds that just aim for returns, and funds that genuinely create real-world impac…→11-11Q3 2024 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report says ESG investing is moving from hype to substance, stressing the need to separate impact-driven from profit-driven investments to avoid greenwashing. The author believes ESG is here to s…→11-04Rolling in the Deep: The Capital Cycle in PGMsThis report says the platinum group metals (PGM) industry has under-invested for a decade, and electric vehicle (EV) adoption is slower than expected, creating a supply shortage and deeply undervalued…→09-30Q3 2024 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says the fund manager believes the US economy has achieved a soft landing (rate cuts without a recession), and markets will revert to normal, moving away from just a few mega-cap stocks. T…→09-30Babcock InternationalThis piece explains why Hosking Partners is warming to the defense sector after years of avoiding it, especially liking Babcock International. The fund was cautious on defense because US giants seemed…→08-12Japan: The Best Game in TownThis report says the 12% crash in Japan's stock market on August 5 wasn't due to bad fundamentals but because big institutions (like banks and insurers) that borrowed money to buy stocks were forced t…→07-31Q2 2024 – ESG and Active Ownership Report→07-09Q2 2024 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report covers hosking_partners' Q2 2024 investment review. They are cautiously optimistic, believing the market is too concentrated in tech and value stocks may rebound. The fund underperformed b…→05-17A focus on… Incentivising long-termismThis article argues that most companies reward managers based on short-term metrics like sales or earnings per share, which encourages bad capital allocation and hurts long-term value. The author beli…→05-17Shipping: A bigger splash?This report says shipping is in a long-term upcycle because few new ships are being built, environmental rules are scrapping old ones, and longer trade routes boost demand. The author, Hosking Partner…→05-16Q1 2024 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report explains how Hosking Partners finds investment opportunities through an ESG lens. They argue that shipping, often seen as a tough sector, is vital to the global economy and offers value if…→03-31Q1 2024 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says a long-awaited shift toward value stocks has begun, and the fund beat the market last quarter. They are optimistic but warn of more bumps ahead. Key holdings: Apple and Tesla (zero ow…→02-21The Opportunity in JapanThis piece says Japan's stock market reforms are working but have a long way to go. The author, hosking_partners, is optimistic, noting the Tokyo Stock Exchange is pushing companies to improve capital…→02-13Q4 2023 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report uses a 'capital cycle' lens to warn that offshore wind's high returns are a trap, as too much capital will compete them down. The author is cautious, blaming low rates and green enthusiasm…→02-12Blowin in the windThis piece explains how offshore wind became a bubble driven by hype and cheap money, then crashed. The author argues that markets wrongly assumed wind costs would fall like solar's, but physics limit…→

2023

12-30Q4 2023 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report is Hosking Partners' Q4 2023 commentary. They are optimistic about value stocks (cheaper companies) and think the risk of a 'hard landing' (severe recession) is already priced in. Key hold…→11-08Q3 2023 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report focuses on two themes: China's solar industry faces state-backed overcapacity and forced labor allegations, weakening its investment case; Japan's corporate governance reforms, pushed by a…→11-07Dark Side of the SunThis report warns that China's solar industry faces deep problems: its cost advantage relies on cheap coal power and alleged forced labor, both unsustainable. Overcapacity and grid bottlenecks also th…→09-30Q3 2023 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says Hosking Partners is cautious on the market, warning the long bond bull market may end and Big Tech is overvalued. They favor energy and Japanese stocks due to tight supply and cheap v…→09-14Taking TimeThis piece argues that long-term investing (holding stocks for ~10 years) is a structural advantage, like bamboo that flowers every 120 years to avoid predators. Hosking Partners is optimistic, saying…→08-03Offshore drillersThis report is bullish on offshore drilling companies. The author thinks the market overlooks physical assets like drilling rigs, which are now scarce because many were scrapped and new ones are expen…→08-01Three-Body ProblemThis report says investing in China is risky because the Taiwan issue is as unpredictable as the 'three-body problem' in physics, and many Chinese industries have overcapacity and low returns. The aut…→08-01Q2 2023 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report covers Hosking Partners' Q2 2023 activities. They underweight China directly but remain exposed indirectly through other holdings, and worry about US-China tensions (especially Taiwan). A…→08-01A focus on… Central and South AmericaThis report says frontier markets like Brazil are cheap right now, while developed markets are expensive. The author thinks Brazil's stock valuations are near 2008 crisis lows, making it a good contra…→06-30Q2 2023 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report covers Hosking Partners' Q2 2023 performance and views. The fund sees a shift from 'virtual world' tech stocks to 'physical world' sectors like banks and energy, but short-term pain is rea…→05-10Cosmo EnergyThis report argues global refinery assets are undervalued, especially in Japan. Hosking Partners is bullish, saying markets are too pessimistic: replacement costs far exceed stock prices, and Japan's…→04-30Only dead fish swim with the streamThis report argues that oversimplified ESG investing (which focuses on environmental, social, and governance factors) is causing capital to flow into narrow areas like renewables, while starving tradi…→04-30Q1 2023 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report argues that rigid ESG investing rules can backfire, favoring a flexible approach. Hosking Partners is cautious overall but sees two opportunities: Japan, where governance reforms may boost…→04-30A focus on Canadian oil sandsThis report argues that Canadian oil sands, despite high carbon emissions, could be a surprise winner as global oil demand stays high and new projects struggle for funding. The author is cautiously op…→03-30Q1 2023 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis is Hosking Partners' Q1 2023 review. The fund manager doubts three market beliefs: that a recession is near, interest rates have peaked, and central banks can control inflation. They think value…→03-19Where’s a copper when you need oneThis report says copper mining could be very profitable because new mines are hard to find and existing ones have less copper, while demand from EVs and renewable energy is rising. The fund manager is…→02-01Q4 2022 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report says that after a year of shocks, old market beliefs like quantitative easing, passive investing, and ESG policies are being re-evaluated. The fund sees this as an opportunity for patient,…→

2022

12-30Embracing complexityThis piece argues that ESG investing (considering environmental and social factors in investment decisions) is messy because it confuses ethics with financial analysis. Hosking Partners is cautious, s…→12-30Q4 2022 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report covers Hosking Partners' Q4 2022 investment review. They are neutral on 2023 but bullish on value stocks, warning that growth stocks' hangover from QE is just starting. Key moves: increase…→10-01Q3 2022 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report explains how Hosking Partners genuinely weaves environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into stock picking, not just for show. They believe the energy transition is reshaping ec…→09-28A diverse worldThis report says the global energy transition affects countries differently. The author is cautiously optimistic about North America, which benefits from cheap shale gas and could see a manufacturing…→09-28Q3 2022 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report covers Hosking Partners' Q3 2022 performance. The manager is optimistic, believing value investing will recover in 2023 despite current gloom. Key holdings include Peabody Energy and Conoc…→09-28A focus on… ESG-linked remunerationThis report is skeptical of companies linking executive pay to ESG goals, calling it a 'group soothe' that adds complexity. The author is cautious, arguing that good ESG pay must tie directly to long-…→08-15Strong back, soft front, wild heartThis report says old-economy stocks (energy, industrials, materials) will keep outperforming because of years of underinvestment. The author thinks energy prices will stay high for longer than expecte…→07-01Q2 2022 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report explores how the global energy transition and geopolitics, especially Russia, can interact to create unexpected events. The author takes a neutral market view without favoring any specific…→06-30Q2 2022 – Quarterly Report CommentaryThis report says markets are shifting from years of under-investment in energy and materials, which is good for the fund. Key holdings: JD.com and Alibaba were added to because Alibaba's stock fell 90…→06-30The GamblerThis report argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is essentially an attempt to slow the global energy transition and protect its fossil fuel exports. The author is cautiously optimistic, believing…→04-30Q1 2022 – ESG and Active Ownership ReportThis report argues that ESG (environmental, social, governance) isn't a style label but a tool to find value. The author says ESG boils down to whether companies aim to make a long-term positive impac…→03-30Q1 2022 – Hosking Partners CommentaryThis report covers Hosking Partners' Q1 2022 investment review. They admit misjudging the Russia-Ukraine war risk, which caused their Russian assets (like Tinkoff Credit Systems) to be written down to…→

2021

12-09Taking on the ‘blob’This piece says public companies are drowning in compliance costs, letting private equity buy them cheap. Hosking Partners argues shareholders should team up to push companies back to business. Their…→11-09TandemThis report uses a 'capital cycle' framework (watching if too much money flows into an industry, which kills profits) to find opportunities. The author is optimistic, arguing that capital-intensive se…→

2019

06-27The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?This report warns that chasing unicorn companies like Uber is risky—they burn cash and have inflated valuations. Instead, it sees value in overlooked traditional industries like airlines and banks. Fo…→

2017

11-01The Death of the BrandThis report argues that the 'moat' of big consumer brands—built on TV ads and store shelves—is being destroyed by the internet and e-commerce. The author says consumers can now easily find cheaper, be…→01-19What shall we do with the drunken sailor?This report says shipping is nearing a turnaround because new ship orders are at historic lows, shipyards are closing, and banks have stopped lending. The author is bullish, especially on container gi…→

2015

03-03What Works In InvestingThis article argues that market prices are often wrong, so investors should think against the crowd. The author believes long-term investing is more certain than short-term; for example, low oil price…→