← Back to list
Hosking PartnersReport31 Mar 2025Source: hoskingpartners.comAuthor: Luke Bridgeman

Reflections from Mexico and Argentina

Hosking Partners is a London boutique founded in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management for over 25 years. It runs a single global equity strategy built on the capital-cycle, supply-side approach — contrarian, long-term, and unusually diversified (350+ holdings) under a multi-counsellor model, managing around $5.5bn.

Jeremy Hosking · 2013 · 伦敦Capital cycle / contrarian

In plain words

This report is about a fund manager's trip to Mexico and Argentina to check on two investments. First, Cemex, a Mexican building materials firm that was once in trouble but is now investment-grade, yet trades at a big discount to similar US companies—the author sees an opportunity. Second, two Argentine companies bought after the 2024 election, betting on reform under new president Milei, though the author admits this is risky. The tone is cautiously optimistic, favoring Cemex's value and Argentina's potential turnaround.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

At a Glance

One-sentence summary: Through on-the-ground research, the author confirms the valuation discount opportunity in Cemex, a leading infrastructure materials company in Mexico, and validates the thesis for building positions in Argentine reform beneficiaries, maintaining an overall stance of 【cautious optimism】.

  • The author conducted their first on-the-ground research trip to Mexico and Argentina, focusing on the long-term portfolio holding Cemex, and confirmed that its valuation is significantly below that of comparable North American aggregates companies.
  • The author built positions in two Argentine companies after the 2024 Argentine general election. This research trip aimed to validate the turnaround hypothesis that "this time might really be different," while acknowledging the riskiness of this judgment.
  • The research conclusions point to two specific investment themes: the valuation recovery opportunity in Cemex and the potential turnaround in Argentine reform beneficiary stocks.
~4 min full read · 4 sections
Deep Analysis

At a Glance

Through on-the-ground research in Mexico and Argentina, the author confirmed the valuation discount opportunity in Cemex and the thesis for building positions in Argentine reform beneficiaries. In March 2025, Luke traveled to Mexico and Argentina for the first time. After concluding meetings with U.S. colleagues, he spent five days meeting with local companies. The author stated: "Mexico was an opportunity to check in with some longstanding names in the Hosking Partners portfolio such as Cemex, once a distressed casualty of the financial crisis, now an investment-grade peer of other aggregates companies who share a focus on North America but trade on a big premium to Cemex." This means: "Mexico provided a chance to review some long-held names in the Hosking Partners portfolio, such as Cemex—once a distressed victim of the financial crisis, now an investment-grade company on par with other aggregates firms that also focus on North America but trade at a significant premium to Cemex." The author noted that tariff escalation and uncertainty surrounding the USMCA free trade agreement were additional reasons to visit this country of 130 million people, adjacent to the fastest-growing region of the United States.

Argentina: Reform May Bring a Turning Point, but Requires Cautious Validation

The author established positions in two Argentine companies after the 2024 election, and this research aimed to test the hypothesis that "this time may really be different." The author stated: "We had initiated positions in a couple of Argentine companies in 2024 soon after the election as president of reforming outsider Javier Milei. A visit was in order to check in on them as well as to meet other companies for the first time, while testing the thesis that this time really may be different in Argentina – a dangerous proposition." This means: "Shortly after the 2024 election, when reformist outsider Javier Milei was elected president, we built positions in a few Argentine companies. This visit was intended to review those companies, meet other firms for the first time, and test the thesis that 'this time Argentina may truly be different'—a risky proposition." The author explicitly acknowledged the riskiness of this judgment, reflecting a cautious stance from the perspective of a position holder.

Investment Implications

The article points to two specific investment themes: the valuation recovery opportunity for Cemex, a Mexican infrastructure materials leader, and the potential turnaround for Argentine reform beneficiaries. Institutional bias: As a position holder, the author's assessment of Cemex and Argentine companies naturally carries an optimistic tilt. Readers should note that the research conclusions may reinforce existing position logic rather than provide an independent, objective evaluation.


Position Moves

Ticker Direction Author's One-Sentence View Key Data
Cemex Hold for Observation Confirms the valuation discount opportunity, believing the valuation premium is significant compared to other North America-focused aggregates companies Both are investment-grade companies, but trade at a much higher price than Cemex
Argentine Companies (two unnamed) Initiate Position Validates the reform turnaround hypothesis that "this time may really be different," but acknowledges the judgment carries risk Position initiated after the 2024 general election, following Milei's presidential victory