Hosking Partners is a London boutique founded in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management for over 25 years. It runs a single global equity strategy built on the capital-cycle, supply-side approach — contrarian, long-term, and unusually diversified (350+ holdings) under a multi-counsellor model, managing around $5.5bn.
This report uses a 'capital cycle' lens to warn that offshore wind's high returns are a trap, as too much capital will compete them down. The author is cautious, blaming low rates and green enthusiasm for misallocated funds. Key mention: Japan's Cosmo Energy, which has multiple paths to success, offering a safety margin against unpredictability.
One-sentence summary: From a capital cycle perspective, the high returns in offshore wind are a trap, while Japan's Cosmo Energy offers a margin of safety through its multiple paths to success. [Cautious]
The article points out that Hosking Partners' capital cycle approach suggests high returns attract capital inflows, which are ultimately eroded by competition, and the offshore wind industry currently faces the risk of capital destruction due to misallocation. The author states, "our capital cycle approach teaches us to be cautious about high returns, as they act as a magnet which draws in new capital, with the likelihood that those high returns are competed down." The article further argues that when "environmental priorities" become the source of "commercial" ideas and capital is mispriced, funds flow into projects with unreasonable economic returns, ultimately leading to capital destruction. In recent years, the soaring valuations of wind power stocks reflect unrealistically low costs of capital—the only way to rationalize project economics. When massive capital floods the industry, catalyzed by well-intentioned regulation, wishful thinking, and near-zero interest rates, the warning signs are clear.
The article uses the example of Cosmo Energy in Japan to illustrate that investment outcomes are often unpredictable, making it crucial to have multiple paths to victory. The author states, "This quarter we include an engagement example from Japan – Cosmo Energy – which demonstrates how outcomes do not always materialise in the way we expect." The article emphasizes that this highlights the importance of having multiple "ways to win," which provides a margin of safety and guards against unpredictability.
| Instrument | Direction | Author's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmo Energy | Hold for observation | Multi-pathway wins provide a margin of safety against unpredictability | No specific data |
| Offshore Wind Industry (General) | Not explicitly stated | High returns are a trap; capital misallocation leads to risk of destruction | Valuation has surged in recent years, reflecting unrealistically low cost of capital |