Hosking Partners is a London boutique founded in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management for over 25 years. It runs a single global equity strategy built on the capital-cycle, supply-side approach — contrarian, long-term, and unusually diversified (350+ holdings) under a multi-counsellor model, managing around $5.5bn.
This report covers hosking_partners' Q2 2024 investment review. They are cautiously optimistic, believing the market is too concentrated in tech and value stocks may rebound. The fund underperformed by 0.6% this quarter but beat the market by nearly 5% over the past year. Key drags were not holding Apple and underweighting Nvidia (an AI chip maker), though their overall AI exposure cost little. Top performers included shipping firm Hafnia and miner Anglo American, both undervalued. Japanese stocks were hurt by the yen's fall, but diversification helped.
One-sentence summary of the author's market view this period: Maintains a [cautiously optimistic] stance on market broadening and value reversion, believing current concentration historical patterns suggest value factors may outperform.
Performance Comparison: Over the past 12 months, the strategy outperformed the MSCI ACWI by nearly 5%, but lagged by 0.6% in the most recent quarter. The quarter showed a "mixed" pattern: the start and end combined contributed approximately 3.2% in positive relative returns, but the middle four weeks saw a net relative loss of about -3.9%, completely offsetting earlier gains.
Performance Attribution: The benchmark's concentration is higher than the strategy's (active share of approximately 84%). Not holding Apple (benchmark weight of 3.8%) caused a relative loss of 0.7% for the quarter, but contributed 0.5% in positive returns over 12 months. The author believes "short-term volatility is a price worth paying." Nvidia (strategy weight of 0.5% vs. benchmark 3.5%) resulted in a 0.9% relative loss, but the overall weight of the AI-enabled portfolio, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and SK Hynix (strategy 4% vs. benchmark 4.6%), narrowed the relative cost to 0.6%.
Positioning Logic: Broadcom is a long-term holding, with the core thesis being CEO Hock Tan's exceptional capital allocation skills. Holdings in memory stocks are based on capital cycle analysis—rising capital demands will drive industry consolidation. The author stated, "We own Nvidia because its combination of both hardware and software (its Cuda platform) make it likely that it will take the lion’s share of the profit pool from parallel processing, of which generative AI is just one application," meaning "We hold Nvidia because its combination of hardware and software (the Cuda platform) makes it likely to capture the largest share of the profit pool from parallel processing, of which generative AI is just one application." The author is skeptical about the scale and sustainability of AI demand but believes the held AI-enabled companies possess strong competitive positions and technological advantages. Profits have been gradually taken on all four holdings.
Performance Highlights: Two of the quarter's top three contributors were value stocks—shipping company Hafnia and diversified miner Anglo American—both trading below replacement value. Anglo American's strong performance stemmed from a takeover bid by competitor BHP Group. Although the author does not hold BHP, they view the industry leader's recognition of a "buy rather than build" strategy as a positive signal. 3i (through its holding of European discount retailer Action) and Costco also ranked among the top ten contributors, both positioned high on the capital cycle curve.
Major Quarterly Drags: Beyond the underweight in large-cap tech, the largest drags came from event-driven positions. Mexican cement maker Cemex fell 29% in USD terms due to AMLO's successor Sheinbaum's landslide victory and peso depreciation, causing a 0.2% relative loss. Japanese paper company Hokuetsu declined after a March short squeeze reversed, and activist shareholders' efforts to replace management have yet to succeed. Toyota Industries reported more certification compliance issues (disappointing the author, who met with Tokyo management in February), and the subsequent buyback was insufficient to prevent a 19% underperformance in USD terms for the quarter, resulting in a 0.1% loss.
Macro Impact: The yen weakened from 151 to 161 against the USD during the quarter, despite Japan's Ministry of Finance spending $60 billion to intervene in the currency market in April. Yen weakness was partly due to higher-for-longer US interest rates and partly due to the Bank of Japan's reluctance to end ultra-low rates. The Japan portfolio overall dragged by 0.5%, but Hitachi (an exporter benefiting from AI and grid transformation) and activist scenario stocks Dai Nippon Printing and Suncorporation contributed strongly. Over the past 12 months, the Japan portfolio contributed a cumulative 0.5% in positive returns. The strategy's Japan weight is 12.3% vs. the benchmark's 5.3%, with a diversified portfolio of 54 stocks covering both export leaders and domestic companies, buffering the exchange rate impact.
Position Changes: Quarterly turnover was 9%, driven by the addition of new fund manager Omar Malik and his portfolio adjustments. On the buy side, financial services (banks and insurance) were most prominent, but each trade was stock-specific rather than thematic. Exposure to platinum group metals (PGM) was increased, while Anglo Platinum was rotated out to manage the spin-off and return of capital. A new position was initiated in Argentina's Cresud (a farmland operator and developer, also the controlling shareholder of the country's leading real estate company). Australian e-commerce company Kogan was sold, replaced by UK's Asos and China's Alibaba. Sells were primarily profit-taking in shipping stocks (where the order book has started to grow) and semiconductor stocks.
Market View [Cautiously Optimistic]: The author cites research from Empirical Research Partners, noting that historically, when US market returns are concentrated among a few leaders, the value factor tends to outperform growth and momentum in the following year. The strategy currently benefits from diversification across approximately 350 stocks, remaining competitive despite an underweight of roughly 21.5% in the US (benchmark weight 63.9%) and 15.4% in IT relative to the benchmark. The author believes "the potential appears extremely exciting for when eventually the market broadens, dollar strength weakens, value is re-rated and money flows elsewhere from the FOMO frenzy which is the AI phenomenon," meaning "When the market eventually broadens, the dollar weakens, value is re-rated, and money flows away from the FOMO frenzy that is the AI phenomenon, the potential appears extremely exciting." However, the trigger could be mean reversion or unexpected events such as geopolitical shocks.
| Ticker | Direction | Author's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | Not Held | Short-term volatility is a price worth paying; cumulative positive return of 0.5% over 12 months | Benchmark weight 3.8%, quarterly relative loss of 0.7% |
| NVIDIA | Hold & Watch | The combination of software and hardware (Cuda platform) will capture the largest share of the parallel processing profit pool | Strategy weight 0.5% vs. benchmark 3.5%, quarterly relative loss of 0.9% |
| Broadcom | Hold & Watch | Long-term holding; core thesis is the CEO's exceptional capital allocation ability | Part of the AI-enabled portfolio; partial profit-taking executed |
| Micron | Hold & Watch | Based on capital cycle analysis, rising capital demand will drive industry consolidation | Part of the AI-enabled portfolio; partial profit-taking executed |
| SK Hynix | Hold & Watch | Based on capital cycle analysis, rising capital demand will drive industry consolidation | Part of the AI-enabled portfolio; partial profit-taking executed |
| Hafnia | Hold & Watch | Represents a value stock, trading below replacement value | One of the top three quarterly contributors |
| Anglo American | Hold & Watch | Represents a value stock; competitor BHP's takeover bid is a positive signal | One of the top three quarterly contributors |
| 3i | Hold & Watch | Through its holding in European discount retailer Action, it sits at a high point on the capital cycle curve | Among the top ten contributors |
| Costco | Hold & Watch | Positioned at a high point on the capital cycle curve | Among the top ten contributors |
| Cemex | Hold & Watch | Fell 29% in USD terms due to Mexican political events and peso depreciation | Quarterly relative loss of 0.2% |
| Hokuetsu | Hold & Watch | Price retreated after a short squeeze; activist shareholders' efforts to replace management have not yet succeeded | Major quarterly drag |
| Toyota Industries | Hold & Watch | Further certification compliance issues; buybacks insufficient to halt share price decline | Underperformed by 19% in USD terms in the quarter, loss of 0.1% |
| Hitachi | Hold & Watch | An exporter benefiting from AI and grid transformation; strong contribution | Outstanding performer in the Japan portfolio |
| Dai Nippon Printing | Hold & Watch | An activist situation stock; strong contribution | Outstanding performer in the Japan portfolio |
| Suncorporation | Hold & Watch | An activist situation stock; strong contribution | Outstanding performer in the Japan portfolio |
| Cresud | New Position | Argentine farmland operator and developer, also the controlling shareholder of the country's leading real estate company | New position |
| Asos | New Position | Switched into UK e-commerce | Switched in after selling Kogan |
| Alibaba | New Position | Switched into Chinese e-commerce | Switched in after selling Kogan |
| Anglo Platinum | Reduced Position | Rotated out to manage spin-off proceeds | Rotated out while increasing exposure to platinum group metals |
| Kogan | Liquidated | Sold Australian e-commerce | Switched into Asos and Alibaba |
| Shipping Stocks | Reduced Position | Profit-taking; order book begins to grow | Sold in the quarter |
| Semiconductor Stocks | Reduced Position | Profit-taking | Sold in the quarter |