The Capital Cycle (Marathon) Letters & Research Archive

The Capital Cycle is the official podcast that Marathon Asset Management (the London firm founded in 1986) launched in 2024, hosted by financial historian Edward Chancellor, who interviews Marathon's investors about each Global Investment Review letter — applying the firm's long-term, contrarian "capital cycle" supply-side approach.

24 pieces · 2025–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

06-30Passive’s Massive AI Gamble (June 2026)This report argues that passive investing (like index funds) isn't neutral—it actually pushes up prices of the biggest stocks, especially tech giants, because index funds must buy them in proportion t…→06-30DeepSequel (June 2026)This report shows how Chinese companies are copying or beating global giants at a fraction of the cost—DeepSeek's AI model costs 90% less, and Chery's hybrid SUV sells for half the price of a Land Rov…→05-29AI and the Material World (May 2026)This report warns that AI-related investments now make up over 40% of U.S. economic growth, while other sectors are shrinking. Meanwhile, emerging market stock indexes are heavily dominated by a few c…→05-29AI Disruptees (May 2026)This report argues that fears about AI destroying data-focused companies (like credit bureaus or legal information providers) are overblown. In fact, AI may make their data more valuable, since AI nee…→03-31Aircraft Leasing Lift-Off (March 2026)This report explains a plane shortage. Since 2018, Boeing and Airbus have cut production by about 30% due to accidents and the pandemic, but air travel keeps growing. This shortage is expected to last…→03-31Masters of the Air (March 2026)This report argues that in European aerospace, the real winners aren't plane makers like Airbus or Boeing, but engine makers like Rolls-Royce and Safran. With aircraft orders backlogged into the 2030s…→02-27The Tyranny of the Index (February 2026)This report uses over 100 years of data to show that the US stock market is dangerously concentrated—the top 10 tech stocks now dominate the index, similar to the 1999 dot-com bubble. The author warns…→02-27AI eats software? (February 2026)This report uses the story of the Jacquard loom to explain how AI coding tools are flooding the software industry with excess capacity and competition. Even though stocks like ServiceNow have dropped…→02-09Capital Account Book (February 2026)→

2025

12-23Boxing Day Gift (December 2025)This report looks at the North American cardboard box industry (the kind used for shipping) and makes a counterintuitive point: even though box sales have fallen back to 2016 levels, big producers are…→12-23Job Lot on Sale (December 2025)This report looks at Kanzhun (Boss Zhipin), a Chinese job platform. It argues that while Boss Zhipin already dominates with 51% of daily users, it's barely started making money—only 30% of employers p…→12-23Churn Chat (December 2025)This piece uses a fictional board meeting to reveal a dangerous game in AI infrastructure: companies commit trillions (like $1.4 trillion) to build computing power, but the money comes not from paying…→11-26A Different Network Effect (November 2025)This report says AI data centers are consuming so much power that Europe's electricity grids are becoming a bottleneck. That's good news for European utility companies (like National Grid and Iberdrol…→11-26Barbarous Relics (November 2025)This report divides companies into two types: big spenders (like tech giants pouring money into data centers) and disciplined operators (like firms consolidating telecom or real estate). It argues the…→09-30AI: Mad Maths? (September 2025)This report uses a 'capital cycle' lens to question the AI investment frenzy. It argues that nearly $3 trillion planned for data centers by 2028 is far too high for reasonable returns. For example, ju…→09-30The Long Tail (September 2025)This report uses a Canadian company, Richelieu Hardware, to explain the 'long tail' strategy: instead of chasing blockbuster products, profit from serving many small, niche customers—like tiny woodwor…→08-29Mucky Business (August 2025)This report looks at the waste treatment industry, but not the trash you throw away—it's about industrial waste from energy companies. The author argues that companies like Secure Waste Infrastructure…→08-29Chinese Property Opportunity (August 2025)This report compares China's current property crisis to the US 2008 crash and Japan's 1990s bust. The key difference: the US let weak builders fail and strong ones take over, creating a profitable oli…→06-30Japan Merger Mania (June 2025)This report explains why Japan is seeing a surge in corporate mergers and buyouts, driven by government pressure, investor demands, and changing board attitudes. For everyday investors, this means opp…→06-30Greek Banking Odyssey (June 2025)This report is about Greek banks, especially National Bank of Greece (NBG). After the debt crisis, Greek banks got bailed out with €50 billion, shrank from 40+ banks to just four, and now control 95%…→05-30Platinum Bombed (May 2025)This report looks at platinum group metals (PGMs, used in car exhaust systems) mining companies. Prices and stocks have crashed, and the industry is losing money. But the author argues that because ev…→05-30US Small Caps: Margin of Safety (May 2025)This report says U.S. small-cap stocks (shares of smaller companies) are now very cheap compared to big-cap stocks (like Apple or Microsoft), with the biggest gap since the dot-com bubble in 2000. For…→05-01Founder’s Story (May 2025)This report argues that a company's management matters more than its financials for long-term investing. The authors found that humble, self-critical CEOs who avoid the spotlight often create the most…→03-31Whitbread (March 2025)This report looks at how the UK hotel industry changed after COVID. Many small hotels closed for good, and high interest rates make it hard to build new ones. Meanwhile, demand is almost back to pre-p…→