Voss Capital Letters & Research Archive

Voss Capital is a Houston hedge fund founded by Travis Cocke in 2011, running value-oriented, bottom-up strategies focused on underfollowed small- and mid-cap special situations through long/short and long-only funds, increasingly turning activist.

26 pieces · 2021–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

03-31Voss Capital Q1 2026 Letter to PartnersThis report warns that the stock market is dangerously concentrated, with money flooding into AI and semiconductors like during the dot-com bubble. It says this could reverse if Chinese memory chips e…→01-16The Price of Time — Key Takeaways from Edward Chancellor's ‘The Price of Time’This report breaks down a book called 'The Price of Time,' arguing that long-term low interest rates are harmful. It uses history to show low rates benefit bankers and the wealthy, not everyone, and f…→

2025

12-31Voss Capital Q4 2025 Letter to PartnersThis report explains why Voss Capital lost about 2% in late 2025 when AI breakthroughs (like Claude Code) triggered a panic sell-off in software stocks. The author argues the fear is overblown: histor…→09-30Voss Capital Q3 2025 Letter to PartnersThis is Voss Capital's Q3 2025 letter to its investors. It describes a split market: on one side, speculative stocks like AI and meme stocks are soaring—some revenue-less companies are worth billions,…→07-29Flywire's Flywheel — FinTech Fixing to Flip the Faulty NarrativeThis report argues that Flywire (FLYW), a company that helps universities process international student payments, is deeply undervalued. The stock has fallen sharply due to fears over student visa res…→06-30Voss Capital Q2 2025 Letter to PartnersThis is Voss Capital's Q2 2025 letter to partners. It says the overall market is a bit 'frothy' (overpriced in some areas, like AI companies spending huge amounts with uncertain returns), but their ow…→03-31Voss Capital Q1 2025 Letter to PartnersThis report explains how hedge fund Voss Capital sees a big split in the stock market: small-company stocks are oversold and priced for a recession, while big names like Tesla (200 times earnings) and…→

2024

03-24PAR’s Path to $80 Redux — Godot Finally ArrivesThis report argues that PAR Technology, a restaurant software company, is finally nearing a long-awaited turning point. After years of delays, it has landed big clients like Burger King and plans to s…→

2023

11-10Paving the Road to Alpha — Long CRHThis report argues that CRH, a top supplier of cement, gravel, and asphalt in Europe and North America, is deeply undervalued. While everyone chases AI stocks, CRH enjoys local monopolies—hauling grav…→09-10Chip Wars — Summary of 'Chips Wars' by Chris Miller, the History of the Semi Conductor Industry and the Potential Geopolitical (and Investing) ImplicationsThis report covers the history of the semiconductor industry, from Cold War rivalry sparking chip innovation to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan's rise, and the US-China tech war. For everyday investors, the…→06-13Software Siphon — An Updated Look at Stock Comp in Software This report warns that software companies often hide a big cost: stock-based compensation (paying employees with stock). Even after the 2022 crash, this cost stayed high, meaning shareholders are gett…→

2022

09-22The Big Long? A Deep Dive on US Housing (Part 6) — What Drives Home Prices and Buy vs RentThis report looks at whether US home prices will crash. The author finds that the key short-term driver is local job growth, not interest rates or income ratios—cities with strong employment over the…→08-04Extreme Visibility — Update on a Top Long Idea: Extreme Networks (EXTR)This report is about Extreme Networks (EXTR), a networking gear company. The author thinks the market is too pessimistic, making the stock undervalued. EXTR has a record backlog of orders (25 times pr…→07-20Stock Comp in Software — Hidden Margin Deterioration?This report argues that many software companies are hiding real profit deterioration by using stock-based compensation (paying employees with shares) and capitalizing R&D (treating research costs as i…→05-20The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 5) — Part 5 – AffordabilityThis report explains why U.S. housing is so expensive and whether regular people can still afford a home. It argues the price surge isn't speculation but a simple shortage: not enough new homes were b…→05-05Garage Sale — A Hidden Play on Commercial Construction and Home Improvement With 150% UpsideThis analysis is about Griffon Corp. (GFF), a company that looks like a typical construction firm but has a hidden gem: it's North America's largest garage door maker (Home and Building Products, or H…→05-03The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 4) — Part 4 – What Slow Down? Recent Commentary from Builders and Building Product CompaniesThis report pushes back against the panic that the U.S. housing market is about to crash. It quotes executives from homebuilders and home-improvement companies who say demand is still strong because t…→04-20The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 3) — Part 3 – Homeowner Balance Sheets and Historical Declines in Home ValuesThis report argues that a U.S. housing market crash is unlikely. While prices have risen sharply, history shows that big national declines (like 10-20%) are rare except for the 2008 financial crisis.…→04-13The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 2) — Part 2 - What’s Driving Demand?This report explains why U.S. housing demand is strong and likely to last. Two main drivers: first, people moved from strict-COVID states like California and New York to places like Texas and Florida,…→03-23The Big Long? A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing (Part 1) — Part 1 - Where Is The Inventory?This report explains why there are so few homes for sale in the U.S. It's not a sudden shortage but the result of over a decade of underbuilding while the population grew. Even if builders ramp up, it…→03-16The State of Software — Is Profitability the New Growth?This report explains why software stocks have crashed recently. It's not because these companies are doing worse—their revenue growth is actually at a 20-year high. Instead, investors have shifted fro…→

2021

06-10Inflation Series (Part 3) — Will the 2020s US end up like 1920s Germany?This report asks whether the US could end up like 1920s Germany, where hyperinflation made money worthless. The author says no—the US doesn't face war reparations or an external threat, and the Fed is…→05-05Inflation Investigation (Part 2) — Why the US (Probably) Isn't the Next JapanThis report uses Japan's 'lost decades' as a cautionary tale to ask whether the US could face a similar fate. After Japan's bubble burst, commercial real estate prices crashed 87%, bad loans hit 75%,…→04-27Roaring Eighties — The Japanese Bubble during the 1980sThis report explains how Japan's 1980s bubble was a political creation: after the 1985 Plaza Accord, the government slashed interest rates and loosened rules to keep the economy growing, which trigger…→04-13Inflation Investigation (Part 1) — Intro to Inflation and Why Common Leading Indicators Aren't Always ReliableThis report asks whether inflation is coming back and what it means for stocks. The author says that while CPI data looks calm, the Fed allowing inflation to overshoot 2% and some early indicators (li…→03-25The Animation Boom — A Brief Look Back at the Early Days of Disney, the Current Cartoon Renaissance and the Future of Thunderbird Entertainment (TBRD)This report looks at how Disney's early obsession with quality and tech (like adding sound to cartoons and using expensive color) made it dominant, and reveals a surprising fact: licensing Mickey Mous…→