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Robotti & CompanyQuarterly30 Jun 2019Source: advisors.robotti.com

Robotti & Company Advisors Q2 2019 Letter

Robotti & Company is a New York deep-value boutique founded by Bob Robotti in 1983, specializing in left-for-dead cyclical industries — energy services, building products, shipping — with multi-year holding periods and occasional activist letters. It manages about $650m; Bob is regarded as one of the most steadfast Graham-tradition cyclical value hunters.

Bob Robotti · 1983 · 美国纽约Deep value / cyclical

In plain words

This article compares today's hype around 'unicorn' companies (private firms worth over $1 billion) to historical bubbles like the Dutch tulip mania and the dot-com crash. The author argues that many investors confuse speculation with investing, chasing trendy stocks while ignoring solid, old-economy businesses like industrial and healthcare firms. For regular investors, the takeaway is to avoid overpriced hype stocks and focus on undervalued companies with real cash flows, then wait patiently for the market to recognize their worth.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

The Robotti report draws parallels to the 1633 Dutch tulip mania and the late-1990s internet bubble, arguing that the current market is experiencing a new "unicorn" bubble—private companies valued at over $1 billion. As of early 2019, there were more than 300 unicorn companies globally, with 26 forc

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter draws historical parallels with the 1633 Dutch tulip mania and the late-1990s internet bubble, arguing that the current market is experiencing a new "unicorn" bubble—private companies valued at over $1 billion. As of early 2019, there were over 300 unicorn enterprises globally, with 26 forced into IPOs in 2018 alone. The author emphasizes that during bubble periods, speculation and fundamental investing are often conflated; early investors may profit, but latecomers chasing trends often lose everything.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is that the current market is confusing speculation with investment, particularly in the unicorn space, where many companies are not going public voluntarily but are forced into public markets because private markets have no buyers. Counterintuitive judgments include: although value investing has been declared "dead" by the market, it is precisely this pessimism that creates opportunities; investors' frenzy over "virtual" assets leads to undervaluation of "physical" assets, which are the foundation supporting the former.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Historical Parallels: After the 1637 tulip bubble burst, speculators lost everything; meanwhile, the Dutch East India Company (the world's first publicly traded company) was undervalued but maintained long-term dominance.
  • Unicorn Bubble: In 2018, 26 unicorns went public via IPOs, many forced to do so (no buyers in private markets). The author notes that private markets use "mark-to-model" valuations, while public markets use "mark-to-market," the latter being closer to real transactions.
  • Valuation Comparison: Two model portfolios constructed by The Wall Street Journal show:
  • The Millennial Portfolio (including Beyond Meat, Uber, Snap, Tesla, Netflix) has a price-to-sales ratio of 24.7x.
  • The Baby Boomer Portfolio (including Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, Home Depot, CVS) has a price-to-sales ratio of 3.65x.
  • The S&P 500's average price-to-sales ratio since 1998 is 1.7x, peaking at 2.3x during the 2000 internet bubble; the author's current portfolio has a price-to-sales ratio below 1.3x.
  • Value Investing Performance: After the internet bubble burst, the author experienced double-digit annualized returns over five consecutive five-year periods, significantly outperforming the Russell and S&P indices.

Companies/Assets Involved

  • Millennial Portfolio (not held): Beyond Meat, Uber, Snap, Tesla, Netflix—the author believes these companies are overvalued, with a price-to-sales ratio of 24.7x.
  • Baby Boomer Portfolio (not held): Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Home Depot, CVS—price-to-sales ratio of 3.65x, still above historical averages.
  • Dutch East India Company: A historical case of a "boring" company undervalued during a bubble but maintaining long-term dominance.
  • Author's Portfolio: Price-to-sales ratio below 1.3x, far below the S&P 500's historical average of 1.7x, which the author believes is severely undervalued.

Investment Insights

  • Short/Avoid Overvalued Unicorns: The author explicitly bears on currently hyped "virtual" assets (such as companies in the Millennial Portfolio), believing their valuations have detached from fundamentals.
  • Go Long on Undervalued Physical Assets: The author argues that physical-world assets (such as industrial, healthcare, and consumer companies) are overly neglected by the market, with their cash flows undervalued, presenting value investing opportunities.
  • Patiently Wait for Value Reversion: The author emphasizes that value investing requires years or even decades of patience, and the current cycle is particularly prolonged, but history shows that value will eventually revert.