Paul’s Notes #17 — 25th September, 2026
Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
In plain words
This article is about the author's takeaways from a precious metals summit, where he is very bullish on gold, silver, and mining stocks. He notes high industry sentiment, ample cash, and technical analysis predicting silver could hit $250-500/oz in 3-5 years. Key holdings: Artemis Gold bought Vista Gold for about $40/oz, seen as a bargain; Luca Mining acquired Capstone Copper's mine for $290 million; and author Rick Rule personally invested in Goldgroup Mining's $125 million private placement, showing his confidence.
At a Glance
One-sentence summary: The author holds a strongly bullish stance on precious metals and junior mining companies [Optimistic], believing that industry sentiment is high, capital is abundant, and technical indicators point to extreme price moves.
- The 2026 Precious Metals Summit saw a record 1,700 attendees, reflecting extremely optimistic industry sentiment.
- Technical analysis predicts silver prices could reach $250–500 per ounce over the next 3–5 years, with a gold target of $8,900 per ounce.
- A global bond sell-off has driven yields higher, becoming a core issue affecting the pricing of all assets.
- Junior mining companies are well-capitalized and show no interest in being acquired; Artemis Gold acquired Vista Gold at approximately $40 per ounce, far below the $600 per ounce paid by Agnico Eagle.
- Mexican mining has become a hotspot for investment, with Luca Mining acquiring Capstone Copper’s Cozamin mine for $290 million, and multiple companies releasing project data with high IRRs.
At a Glance
Precious Metals Summit Sets Records, Industry Sentiment Soars
The 2026 Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit in Colorado saw over 240 participating companies and 1,700 delegates (a record), with more than 10,000 meetings scheduled and the longest waitlist in history. The author, who has attended for at least 11 consecutive years, considers this the annual highlight, citing the pleasant autumn setting of the Rocky Mountain ski resort and the concentrated venue at the summit, which fosters ample spontaneous networking opportunities for exchanging rumors and catching up on the latest developments. The author conducted approximately 20 video interviews for Kitco, featuring John Hathaway of Sprott Asset Management, Ronald Stoeferle of Incrementum, Grant Williams of The End Game podcast, and Florian Grummes of Midas Consulting, alongside numerous CEOs and dozens of impromptu meetings. The author describes the dinner atmosphere at the Beaver Creek Chop House as resembling the Great Hall of Hogwarts Castle, where amid the din, some kind of "magic" was clearly unfolding among many well-known industry figures.
Global Bond Selloff Becomes Core Topic, Impacting Cost of Capital
The global bond selloff and rising yields are the focus of the financial world, as bond yields represent the cost of money, affecting borrowing costs for everyone. This was the core theme of Grant Williams' keynote address. The author's original quote: "Bonds may be boring but they impact everyone’s lives as bond yields are the cost of money: when yields rise, the baseline cost to borrow money increases for everyone." The author believes this topic, though dry and difficult, is critically important.
Young Leaders Forum: The Rise of a New Generation of Mining Management
The author moderated a forum on emerging young leaders, focusing on the next management teams investors should watch after seasoned veterans like Pierre Lassonde, Ross Beaty, and the Lundin family. The forum featured three guests who have already proven successful and whose experience will be invaluable over the next 20-30 years of their careers: Mani Alkhafaji of First Majestic Silver, Frederick Bell of Elemental Royalty, and Charles Funk of Heliostar Metals. The Northern Miner deemed this topic significant enough to feature as a headline story.
Technical Analysis Bullish on Gold and Silver, Silver Target $250-$500
Technical analysis indicates a substantial rise in gold prices, while silver's "cup and handle" pattern suggests a potential price of $250-$500 per ounce over the next 3-5 years. Florian Grummes broke down decades of technical analysis on gold prices in his keynote, with charts showing gold prices are indeed set to move significantly higher. His analysis of silver prices declared "the mother of all cup and handles," with charts displaying a beautiful, semi-circular bowl pattern formed over many years, now complemented by a corresponding handle. Grummes later told the author that the significance of the cup and handle pattern lies in the fact that when a breakout occurs, the height or magnitude of the move often equals the depth of the bowl, which is why he believes silver could reach $250-$500 per ounce in the next 3-5 years. Meanwhile, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle told delegates that his gold price target of $8,900 per ounce, forecast in 2020, remains valid within a similar timeframe.
Junior Miners Well-Funded, Uninterested in Being Acquired
Currently, junior mining companies are well-funded, have no financing needs, and are reluctant to be acquired by larger companies, as they do not want to miss out on the value appreciation that comes from entering the development stage and producing their first ounce of gold. The author notes that companies are no longer in "capitulation mode" seeking relief. As an example, in this week's M&A deal, Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG) acquired Vista Gold (NYSE/TSX:VGZ) at a ratio of 0.0966 ARTG shares per Vista share, implying a value of $2.83 per share (a 29% premium) and a total value of $427 million, gaining the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory. On a per-ounce basis, ARTG paid approximately $40/oz. In comparison, Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) paid $600/oz when it acquired Rupert Resources (TSX:RUP)'s development-stage asset in Finland earlier this year, suggesting ARTG appears to have secured a bargain. The author states they are compiling relevant data and hopes to share it in the future.
Investment Implications
The article is clearly bullish on precious metals (gold, silver) and junior mining companies, citing high industry sentiment, ample funding, and bullish technicals. However, readers should note that this is an optimistic narrative from an industry summit. The author, as a long-time participant, may carry industry bias, and the technical analysis targets (silver at $250-$500/oz) represent an extreme bullish scenario that warrants caution.
Mexico Mining Boot Camp: An Overlooked Investment Opportunity Window
Rick Rule will host an 8-hour online "Mexico Mining Boot Camp" on September 26, 2026, targeting intermediate to advanced investors and designed to provide actionable, in-depth information. The article notes that Mexico is a leading mining jurisdiction globally, the world's largest silver producer, and also strong in gold, copper, lead, and zinc. The author believes that successfully navigating this market requires deep expertise, and this boot camp is specifically designed for that purpose.
Highlights of the boot camp include:
- Over 6 hours of expert instruction: Covering regional geology, corporate strategy, local politics, infrastructure, and socioeconomic dynamics.
- Elite lineup of instructors: Including Rick Rule, CEO of the Mexican Mining Chamber Karen Flores, retired professor from the Colorado School of Mines Dr. Stephen Enders, and founder and CEO of Riverside Resources (TSXV:RRI), Dr. John-Mark Staude.
- Virtual booths and interactive networking: Providing opportunities for direct contact with industry organizations and participants.
Mexico Mining M&A and Project Progress Intensify, Multiple Companies Release Key Data
The core content of this section is the dense release of company news during the PMS conference, involving M&A, resource estimates, and economic studies. These developments provide specific targets and valuation references for mining investment in Mexico and globally.
Below is a summary of key transactions and project progress:
| Company | Event | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Luca Mining (TSXV:LUCA) | Acquisition of the Cozamin mine in Zacatecas, Mexico, from Capstone Copper (TSX:CS) | Cash and stock consideration of $290 million, with up to $95 million in deferred/contingent consideration |
| Scout Discoveries | AEM invested C$14.8 million for a 14.9% stake; The Electrum Group invested C$10.2 million, increasing its stake to 30% | AEM can earn up to a 70% interest in multiple Scout projects through up to $90 million in exploration expenditures |
| Ivanhoe Electric (NYSE-A/TSX:IE) | Released feasibility study for the Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona | First 15-year average annual production of 75,000 tonnes of cathode copper, C1 cash cost of $1.47/lb, initial capex of $1.43 billion, first production expected in 2029 |
| Meridian Mining (LSE/TSX:MNO) | Released feasibility study for the Cabaçal gold-copper-silver project in Brazil | Annual production of 113,000 ounces of gold, AISC of $1,056/oz, after-tax NPV5 of $2.09 billion, IRR of 107.6%, payback period of 0.9 years |
| Bravo Mining (TSXV:BRVO) | Released pre-feasibility study for the Luanga PGM-nickel project in Brazil | Annual production of 208,900 ounces of palladium and 151,000 ounces of platinum, C1 cost of $478/oz 4E PGM, after-tax NPV8 of $1.45 billion, IRR of 35.1% |
| Contango Silver and Gold (NYSE-A/TSX:CTGO) | Updated resource estimate for the Kitsault Valley silver-gold project in British Columbia | Indicated resources increased 93% to 89.55 million silver-equivalent ounces, inferred resources of 64.92 million ounces |
| Silver X Mining (TSXV:AGX) | Updated resource estimate for the Nueva Recuperada silver project in Peru | M&I tonnage increased 173% to 10.4 million tonnes, containing 70.8 million silver-equivalent ounces; inferred resources increased 43% to 180.9 million ounces |
| Elemental Royalty (NASDAQ/TSX:ELE) | Acquired a portfolio of five streams and royalties from Orion Mine Finance | Consideration of $290 million in cash and stock; concurrently divested its power generation business to Carlin East, CEO departed |
Investment Implications
This section is extremely information-dense, providing investors with multiple trackable mining investment targets, ranging from junior explorers to mid-tier producers. The author, Rick Rule, himself participated in a $125 million private placement for Goldgroup Mining (NYSE-A/TSXV:GORO), demonstrating his direct confidence in Mexican and North American mining assets. Readers should note that this information is a summary of news released during the PMS conference, not Rick Rule's personal portfolio recommendations, but the detailed economic data included (such as IRR, NPV, cash costs) provides a solid foundation for independent analysis.
Position Moves
| Ticker | Direction | Author's One-Sentence Opinion | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG) | Add | Believes acquiring Vista Gold at ~$40/oz is a bargain | Acquisition price $2.83/share, total value $427M |
| Vista Gold (NYSE/TSX:VGZ) | Reduce | Being acquired, author does not comment | Acquisition premium 29% |
| Luca Mining (TSXV:LUCA) | New Position | Acquiring the Cozamin mine, author does not directly comment but lists it as a key transaction | Consideration $290M in cash and stock |
| Capstone Copper (TSX:CS) | Reduce | Selling the Cozamin mine, author does not directly comment | Sale consideration $290M |
| Scout Discoveries | New Position | AEM and Electrum Group invest, author does not directly comment | AEM invests C$14.8M for 14.9% equity |
| Ivanhoe Electric (NYSE-A/TSX:IE) | Hold & Watch | Releases feasibility study for Santa Cruz copper project, author does not directly comment | 75kt copper per year for first 15 years, C1 cost $1.47/lb |
| Meridian Mining (LSE/TSX:MNO) | Hold & Watch | Releases feasibility study for Cabaçal project, author does not directly comment | 113koz gold per year, IRR 107.6% |
| Bravo Mining (TSXV:BRVO) | Hold & Watch | Releases pre-feasibility study for Luanga project, author does not directly comment | 208.9koz palladium per year, IRR 35.1% |
| Contango Silver and Gold (NYSE-A/TSX:CTGO) | Hold & Watch | Updates resource estimate for Kitsault Valley project, author does not directly comment | Indicated resources up 93% to 89.55Moz silver equivalent |
| Silver X Mining (TSXV:AGX) | Hold & Watch | Updates resource estimate for Nueva Recuperada project, author does not directly comment | M&I tonnage up 173% to 70.8Moz silver equivalent |
| Elemental Royalty (NASDAQ/TSX:ELE) | New Position | Acquires Orion Mine Finance asset portfolio, author does not directly comment | Consideration $290M in cash and equity |
| Goldgroup Mining (NYSE-A/TSXV:GORO) | New Position | Author Rick Rule personally participates in its $125M private placement | Private placement $125M |
| First Majestic Silver | Hold & Watch | Guest company at the Young Leaders Forum, author does not directly comment | Forum guest Mani Alkhafaji |
| Heliostar Metals | Hold & Watch | Guest company at the Young Leaders Forum, author does not directly comment | Forum guest Charles Funk |
| Riverside Resources (TSXV:RRI) | Hold & Watch | Company of instructor Dr. John-Mark Staude, author does not directly comment | Instructor at Mexico Mining Bootcamp |