Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
This piece covers two main themes in mining: copper's long-term structural deficit (BHP sees a potential 10 million-tonne annual shortfall by 2035) and gold M&A opportunities, while warning about indigenous political risks (e.g., Seabridge Gold's KSM project losing indigenous support). Author Rick Rule is cautiously optimistic, favoring copper and gold development. Key holdings: BHP plans ~$20B in capex to boost copper output; Wheaton Precious Metals bought BHP's silver stream for $4.3B, called a win-win; Seabridge Gold got a $100M short-term loan after indigenous opposition, hinting it may need to give up more project stake.
One-sentence summary: Mining investment is currently centered around the long-term structural deficit in copper and M&A opportunities in gold mine development, but indigenous political risks (such as the Seabridge KSM project) serve as a critical warning. [Cautious]
The Gitxsan Huwilp Government withdrew support for the KSM project in June 2026, backing the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha Nation (TSKLH) over insufficient consultation on environmental risks, a claim upheld by the BC Supreme Court. The author warned in [RIN #19] that Indigenous opinions could shift, and Seabridge now serves as a case in point. Gitxsan Huwilp Government Co-Chairs Brian Williams and Norman Moore stated: "Gitxsan Hereditary Chiefs are looking far beyond the court order to real economic partnerships with collaboration and shared decision-making." Seabridge claims the action has no legal effect and that it still enjoys support from the Tahltan and Nisga'a Nations (which hold recognized Indigenous land rights in the project area). However, the company secured a $100 million unsecured short-term loan in July, suggesting joint venture partners may need to cede greater interests—the author believes Indigenous groups are seeking a larger share.
BHP's FY2026 copper output reached 1.4 million tonnes, with copper prices exceeding $6/lb, contributing 54% of EBITDA (margin 70%), and a breakeven price of just $1.50/lb, far below the market's long-term consensus of $4.76/lb. The author notes that BHP's analysis of the copper market is worth attention, given its position as a leading copper producer. The company forecasts non-traditional demand (decarbonization, digitalization, data centers) will grow at approximately 6.5% annually through 2035, and "A persistent structural deficit could lead to a shortfall of up to ~10 Mtpy next decade." BHP plans to make final investment decisions within 18 months on the new Escondida concentrator (investment $5.4–6.3 billion, adding 230,000–270,000 tonnes/year) and the Vicuña Phase I project. By 2035, copper growth capital will reach approximately $20 billion, with annual production increasing by 600,000 tonnes, and an integrated capital intensity of $33,000 per tonne of installed capacity. The author places this in a macro context: UNCTAD estimates the industry needs $250 billion in investment for at least 80 new projects by 2030, making BHP's $20 billion a drop in the bucket.
Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM) acquired 33.75% of BHP's silver production from the Antamina mine for $4.3 billion. Author Rick Rule calls this a "win-win" and foresees more such deals ahead. The author explains the logic: BHP's silver is valued at 6–7 times cash flow multiples for copper, but as a standalone silver stream, it could reach 15 times; Wheaton, as a smaller company, has a lower cost of capital than BHP. The author's original words: "This is a transaction the market's going to see a lot more of because that US$250B capital stack is going to require US$30-35B or more of unconventional finance." This offers a solution to the industry's financing challenges.
OceanaGold (TSX/NYSE:OGC) acquired Ausgold (ASX:AUC) for $549 million (28% premium), gaining the Katanning gold project in Western Australia, targeting first production in 2029. The author notes that OGC seeks to boost output above 500,000 ounces/year through external assets, but Australia is its sole operating region, exposed to energy vulnerabilities from the Iran conflict, which provides OGC with a low-cost window. CEO Gerard Bond stated: "The acquisition of AUC adds an advanced, high-quality, low-capital, open-pit development asset to our portfolio at an attractive valuation."
Equinox Gold (NYSE-A/TSX:EQX) completed a $18.5 billion merger with Orla Mining in July and received a positive Record of Decision from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management for the South Railroad gold project. The project's 2026 feasibility study shows: average annual production of 130,000 ounces in the first five years, over 100,000 ounces/year over a 10-year mine life, initial capital of $395 million, targeting first gold in 2028. CEO Jason Simpson stated: "The incremental production from South Railroad will be the first meaningful contributor towards our objective of adding 800koz of annual gold production from our organic development pipeline."
This article highlights two main themes in mining investment: the long-term structural deficit in copper (BHP's heavy capital deployment) and M&A opportunities in gold development (OceanaGold, Equinox Gold), while also warning of Indigenous political risks (Seabridge). Institutional perspective bias: Author Rick Rule, a veteran resource investor, tends to emphasize that "challenges create opportunities" (e.g., the Wheaton deal); readers should note that his optimistic narrative may downplay project execution risks (e.g., KSM's legal uncertainties).
AngloGold Ashanti, South32, and Gold Fields have recently injected capital into specific junior explorers by increasing or maintaining their equity positions, securing project interests in the process.
Banyan Gold has intersected unusually high-grade mineralization at its AurMac project in the Yukon, potentially defining a high-grade open pit and adding incremental value to the project.
Gold miners are returning cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, while critical mineral companies like Almonty and US Antimony have announced large-scale buyback programs despite limited cash flow.
| Ticker | Direction | Author's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seabridge Gold | Hold & Watch | The reversal of indigenous support constitutes a major political risk, making the project's outlook uncertain | KSM project loses support from Gitxsan First Nation; company secures $100 million short-term loan |
| BHP | Hold & Watch | High-margin copper business drives massive investment, making it an industry leader whose market analysis is worth noting | Copper production of 1.4 million tonnes, copper price at $6/lb, EBITDA margin of 70%, breakeven price of $1.50/lb; plans to invest approximately $20 billion to increase production by 600,000 tonnes/year |
| Wheaton Precious Metals | Not Explicitly Stated | The silver stream deal is a "win-win" and signals more unconventional financing | Acquires 33.75% of silver production from BHP's Antamina mine for $4.3 billion |
| OceanaGold | Add to Position | Seeks to boost production to over 500,000 ounces/year through the acquisition of Ausgold | Acquires Ausgold for $549 million (28% premium), targeting first production in 2029 |
| Equinox Gold | Add to Position | Following the merger with Orla Mining, positive progress on the South Railroad project | $18.5 billion merger; South Railroad averages 130,000 ounces/year in the first five years, initial capital of $395 million, targeting first gold production in 2028 |
| Orla Mining | Add to Position | Merger with Equinox Gold, positive project outlook | Same as above (merged entity) |
| Ausgold | Add to Position | Acquired by OceanaGold, project is attractive | Acquired for $549 million, 28% premium |
| AngloGold Ashanti | Add to Position | Increases stake in Thesis Gold & Silver to 9.7%, supporting project exploration | Invests C$58.5 million, increasing stake from 5% to 9.7% |
| Thesis Gold & Silver | Add to Position | Receives increased stake from AngloGold Ashanti, funds used for exploration | C$58.5 million financing for Lawyers-Ranch gold-silver project |
| South32 | Add to Position | Maintains 19.9% stake in American Eagle Gold, supporting its drilling | Exercises top-up right for C$719,000 |
| American Eagle Gold | Add to Position | South32 maintains its stake, company is cash-rich and advancing drilling | Holds over C$50 million in cash, advancing drilling at the NAK project |
| Gold Fields | Add to Position | Invests in Founders Metals to a 19.9% stake, consolidating project interests | C$77 million investment, increasing stake to 19.9% |
| Founders Metals | Add to Position | Receives investment from Gold Fields, consolidates 100% interest in the Antino project | $17 million cash + 13.57 million shares to consolidate the project |
| Banyan Gold | Hold & Watch | High-grade drilling results may define a high-grade open pit, adding value to the project | Drill hole intercepts 14.2 meters at 13.03 g/t gold (including 1 meter at 142.7 g/t); total project resources exceed 7 million ounces |
| Almonty Industries | Not Explicitly Stated | Cash-rich but with limited revenue, a large-scale buyback plan is noteworthy | Cash of $1.2 billion, revenue of $43 million; plans $300 million buyback |
| United States Antimony | Not Explicitly Stated | Moderate cash position but announces a large-scale buyback, a positive signal | Cash of $41 million; plans $100 million buyback |