Baillie Gifford is an Edinburgh investment partnership founded in 1908, famous for ultra-long-horizon, high-conviction growth investing — its early stakes in Amazon, Tesla and NIO are classics. Its "actual investors" philosophy holds world-changing companies on 5-10 year views; AUM is around $120bn. The Insights column carries its managers' investment views and thematic research.
This report says China's innovation in green tech, advanced manufacturing, and AI is hidden by macro headlines, and investment opportunities remain strong. Manager Linda Lin compares judging China by macro alone to 'judging a restaurant from the weather outside.' Key holdings: BYD (BYD) – Seagull model costs ~£8,000, flash charging adds 400 km in 5 minutes; CATL – supplied nearly 40% of global EV batteries in 2025, installed in over 24 million cars by March 2026; Meituan – served over 800 million users in 2025, completed over 1 million drone delivery orders by July 2026.
One-sentence summary of the author's market view this period: China's global competitiveness in green technology, advanced manufacturing, and AI is overshadowed by macro narratives, yet investment opportunities remain strong. [Bullish]
The article argues that judging the Chinese market solely through macroeconomic headlines misses companies that are leading globally in technology and manufacturing. Linda Lin, co-manager of the China Growth Trust, likens this approach to "judging a restaurant from the weather outside." She notes that while the overall economic picture is real, her meetings with founders reveal ambition and rapid innovation. In green technology, advanced manufacturing, robotics, and artificial intelligence, China is setting the pace, and broad economic narratives may obscure the true face of enterprises doing entirely different things.
The article points out that geopolitical and regulatory risks have been factored into company and portfolio-level considerations to assess whether potential returns remain attractive. Taking the world's largest pure electric vehicle manufacturer BYD as an example, the institution's investment case assumes that BYD will not sell passenger cars in the United States—the products may be appealing, but political factors could keep them out. For the European market, the outlook is less clear; although tariffs and political headwinds may limit its market share, early expansion is encouraging. Nonetheless, managers still see a strong growth case. The article emphasizes that managers conduct deep dives into each company to evaluate whether potential returns remain attractive after accounting for risks.
The article uses specific examples to show how Chinese companies seamlessly connect digital services with the physical world and achieve technological leadership in manufacturing.
The article argues that China's approach to AI focuses more on practical applications, and localized in-depth research is key to uncovering such investment opportunities.
The article notes that Chinese companies are increasingly difficult to simply analogize with Western competitors; they are reshaping the global competitive landscape. PDD Holdings, Didi, and RedNote were once referred to by Western markets as China's versions of Amazon, Uber, and Instagram, respectively. But when Western competitors are all imitating TikTok, what can ByteDance be called a Chinese version of? Similarly, RedNote, Temu, and SHEIN are changing how consumers discover content and shop. Advances in EVs, batteries, open-source AI, and semiconductors are reshaping global competition. If China can develop domestic alternatives under external constraints, this could strengthen its manufacturing ecosystem and alter the prospects for its chipmakers, manufacturers, and technology platforms.
| Ticker | Direction | Author's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD | Hold & Observe | Even assuming no sales in the U.S., the growth case remains strong; vertical integration and technological leadership form core advantages. | Seagull priced at ~£8,000; Yangwang U9 is the world's fastest production car; flash charging technology adds 400 km of range in 5 minutes. |
| CATL | Hold & Observe | Manufacturing expertise, scale, and determination for technological iteration make it the global battery champion. | Supplied nearly 40% of global EV batteries in 2025; installed in over 24 million vehicles as of March 2026. |
| Meituan | Hold & Observe | Deep integration of digital and physical experiences; drone delivery showcases innovation. | Served over 800 million users in 2025; completed over 1 million drone delivery orders as of July 2026. |
| PDD Holdings | Hold & Observe | As a digital platform, it is changing how consumers discover content and shop; difficult to benchmark against Western companies. | No specific data. |
| RedNote | Hold & Observe | Alongside Temu and SHEIN, it is reshaping the global consumption landscape, shedding the "Chinese Instagram" label. | No specific data. |
| Horizon Robotics | Hold & Observe | China's leader in autonomous driving chips and software; localized patient research is the key discovery path. | Team tracked for years before IPO; founder Yu Kai originally worked at Baidu. |
| ByteDance | Hold & Observe | Combination of AI models with strong distribution capabilities; data and distribution advantages help turn technology into products. | No specific data. |
| Didi | Not specified | Mentioned as a case of the "Western benchmark" label, but no specific view or data. | No specific data. |
| Temu | Not specified | Mentioned as one of the companies reshaping the consumption landscape, but no specific view or data. | No specific data. |
| SHEIN | Not specified | Mentioned as one of the companies reshaping the consumption landscape, but no specific view or data. | No specific data. |