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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast20 Jul 2022Source: joincolossus.comHost: Colossus

Charles Schwab: The 8 Trillion Dollar Gorilla - [Business Breakdowns, EP. 66]

In plain words

This episode explains how Charles Schwab transformed from an online broker into a bank, making money from interest on customer cash. Guest Andrew Hollingworth calls Schwab the 'Amazon of finance'—great service, low fees, but analysts miss the big picture by focusing on net interest margin. He's bullish, expecting Schwab to start big buybacks. Key holdings: Schwab ($8 trillion in client assets, ~$62/share, seen as fairly valued); TD Ameritrade (acquired by Schwab after being hit by zero commissions); Interactive Brokers (triggered the zero-commission race).

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Charles Schwab is a financial giant managing over $8 trillion in custody assets, with a market capitalization of approximately $120 billion. This edition of Business Breakdowns is analyzed by Andrew Hollingworth, founder of Holland Advisors, whose core thesis is that Schwab has successfully transfor

~16 min full read · 9 sections
Deep Analysis

Charles Schwab: The 8 Trillion Dollar Gorilla - [Business Breakdowns, EP. 66]

At a Glance

The guest on this episode is Andrew Hollingworth, founder and portfolio manager of Holland Advisors. The main narrative traces how Schwab successfully transformed from an online brokerage into a traditional banking model, with its core revenue source shifting to interest income from customer cash deposits. The most impactful judgment in the entire episode: Andrew Hollingworth argues that Schwab is the "Amazon of finance"—offering exceptional customer experience at extremely low fees, yet analysts only focus on net interest margins and balance sheets. This cognitive mismatch is precisely the root of the market's undervaluation.


Theme 1: Schwab's Business Model – Customers Think It's Free, the Company Makes Money from Interest

Andrew Hollingworth argues that Schwab's business model mirrors the American Express described by Buffett: customers believe they are getting a bargain, while the company earns substantial profits from areas invisible to them.

  • Mechanism Breakdown: On average, approximately 10% of client assets in Schwab accounts are held in cash. Clients earn almost no interest on this cash (around 0.1%), while Schwab invests it in assets such as high-grade bonds, capturing a net interest margin. The net interest margin was approximately 1.5% in 2020, around 2.4% in 2019, and reached as high as 4% before the financial crisis.
  • Revenue Structure: Net interest margin contributes 60%–75% of Schwab's total revenue. The remainder comes from custody fees, lending fees, and other charges—yet clients barely notice these fees, as trading commissions have been reduced to zero.
  • Comparison with Competitors: Asset-light firms like TD Ameritrade also earn some net interest income, but lacking their own bank balance sheets, they "sweep" client deposits to partner banks (e.g., TD Dominion Bank), earning a meager 10–30 basis points in return. In contrast, Schwab retains deposits on its own balance sheet, earning 150–250 basis points.

> Original Quote: "The majority of Schwab's income is coming from effectively 10% of customer assets, where the customer is not even paying a fee. They're just foregoing some interest rate benefit." — Meaning: The majority of Schwab's income comes from 10% of client assets, where clients do not even pay a fee; they merely forgo some interest benefit.


Theme 2: A Strategic Choice 25 Years Ago — The Shift from Asset-Light to Asset-Heavy

Andrew Hollingworth points out that Schwab’s seemingly counterintuitive decision 25 years ago to proactively shift from an asset-light model to an asset-heavy model ultimately became its deepest moat.

  • Historical Context: 25 years ago, Schwab could have followed the path of TD Ameritrade or the UK’s Hargreaves Lansdown, maintaining an asset-light model — charging clients modest custody fees and returning most profits to shareholders via dividends or buybacks. Instead, founder Charles Schwab chose a different route: building its own bank balance sheet and retaining client deposits on its books.
  • Why It Did This: Hollingworth believes Schwab identified the vast profit pool of "sticky deposits." Clients are unlikely to withdraw cash from 401k or investment accounts, making these deposits extremely stable. By earning net interest margins on these deposits, Schwab could offer clients lower prices on all other services — including zero-commission trading and low custody fees.
  • Competitive Barrier: To replicate Schwab’s model, competitors would not only need to build a client network of comparable scale (approximately $8 trillion in custody assets) but also establish an SEC-regulated bank balance sheet (approximately $580 billion) and hold the corresponding regulatory capital. Hollingworth asserts: "There's nothing to stop anybody doing it, but you'd have to build a business of similar size and scope and I don't see anything anywhere near it." — meaning: nothing prevents you from doing it, but you would have to build a business of equivalent scale and scope, and he sees nothing even close.

Theme 3: TD Ameritrade Acquisition – The Gorilla's Fatal Blow

Andrew Hollingworth describes Schwab as "the gorilla in the industry," and its acquisition of TD Ameritrade perfectly demonstrates how an asset-heavy model crushes asset-light competitors.

  • Chain of Events: In the summer of 2018, Interactive Brokers introduced zero-commission trading for a small portion of its retail clients (as a marketing gimmick). Schwab then cut trading commissions to zero across its entire platform. Schwab's stock fell about 9% that day, but TD Ameritrade and E-Trade suffered far larger declines—because they were more reliant on commission revenue.
  • Timing of the Acquisition: Approximately 3–6 months later, Schwab announced its acquisition of TD Ameritrade. Hollingworth specifically notes: "TD Ameritrade's board unanimously approved the takeover by Schwab, even though it was happening at the share price that TD Ameritrade was trading at just before Schwab announced its zero-cost trading." In other words, the board unanimously approved the deal at the same price TD Ameritrade traded at before Schwab's zero-commission announcement.
  • Power Dynamics: TD Dominion Bank (TD Ameritrade's deposit partner bank) also voted in favor of the transaction and subsequently renegotiated with Schwab, securing better net interest margin terms for Schwab than those previously offered to TD Ameritrade. Hollingworth analyzes: "Schwab was in a strong position with TD Dominion Bank because it had its own balance sheet. TD Ameritrade didn't have that discussion because they didn't have their own balance sheet." This means Schwab, with its own balance sheet, held a strong hand in negotiations with TD Dominion Bank, while TD Ameritrade lacked that leverage.

Theme 4: Capital Accumulation and Return Inflection Point – "Spend More to Earn More"

Andrew Hollingworth believes that Schwab has been "spending more to earn more" over the past 15 years, a phase that is nearing its end, with a future shift toward returning capital to shareholders.

  • Data Chain: From 2007 to 2020, Schwab's bank deposits grew at an annual rate of 30%, while client numbers increased by only 5%-7%. To support deposit growth, Schwab had to maintain substantial regulatory capital. Between 2014 and 2016, its retained capital as a percentage of net profit ranged from 90% to 130%—retaining nearly all profits within the company.
  • Inflection Point Signal: In October 2018, then-CEO Walt Bettinger stated: "We're on the cusp of being in a position to begin returning capital to our stockholders in quite a meaningful way."—meaning the company is at the threshold of meaningfully returning capital to shareholders. Hollingworth judged in his March 2019 research that this inflection point was imminent.
  • Impact of the TD Ameritrade Acquisition: The acquisition delayed the inflection point by "two to three years or more," as Schwab needed to integrate TD Ameritrade's assets onto its own balance sheet and hold corresponding regulatory capital. However, Hollingworth still views this positively: "To bring more deposits onto the balance sheet is still a good thing because you're still making more money out of it."—meaning adding more deposits to the balance sheet remains beneficial, as it still generates additional profits.
  • Long-Term Growth Model: The company's own guidance indicates: client assets growing 5%-7% annually, combined with other revenue growth and margin expansion, plus a future payout ratio of 40%-60% (dividends + buybacks), can achieve mid-teens earnings per share growth.

Theme 5: Valuation Framework — Cutting Through Complexity with "Look-Through Earnings"

Andrew Hollingworth argues that Schwab's valuation should not get lost in the labyrinth of net interest margin and balance sheet details, but should instead focus on "look-through earnings" and long-term growth potential.

  • Valuation Method: Using the Q4 2021 annualized earnings per share of approximately $3.4 as a baseline, adjusted to a net interest margin at 2019 levels (2.4%), the "look-through earnings" come to about $5–$5.5 per share. At a current stock price of roughly $62, this implies a price-to-look-through-earnings multiple of about 12x.
  • Growth Assumption: Hollingworth believes Schwab can achieve mid-teens (approximately 15%) earnings per share growth over the full cycle. For a company described as "the Amazon of finance," a 12x earnings multiple is a "perfectly good price to pay."
  • Risk Note: Hollingworth acknowledges that the 2022 market downturn led to an increase in client cash balances, forcing Schwab to hold more regulatory capital, which weighed on the stock in the near term. However, he views this as a natural hedge: "As the people get more cautious, leave more money in cash. That's what makes more money on the money that's in cash." — In other words, the more cautious clients become and the higher their cash balances, the more money Schwab earns on that cash.

> Original Quote: "By the time you've done two weeks of that with Schwab, your spreadsheet is so big and your brain has exploded. You've sort of forgotten why you like the business in the first place." — Meaning: If you spend two weeks modeling Schwab, your spreadsheet becomes enormous, your brain explodes, and you forget why you liked the business in the first place.


Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Stance Key Data
Charles Schwab Bullish—"Amazon of Finance" Custodied assets over $8 trillion; market cap ~$120 billion; net interest margin contributes 60%-75% of revenue; Q4 2021 annualized EPS ~$3.4; look-through earnings ~$5-$5.5 per share
TD Ameritrade Acquired party—case study of asset-light model vulnerability Acquired by Schwab at pre-zero-commission announcement price; more reliant on trading commission revenue; deposits earn 10-30 bps through TD Dominion Bank
Interactive Brokers Trigger of zero-commission competition Founder Thomas Peterffy admitted zero commissions were a "marketing stunt" and did not expect Schwab to fully follow suit
E-Trade Competitor impacted by zero commissions Share price fell sharply after Schwab's zero-commission announcement
Fidelity Competitor (case study of customer stickiness) Cited as an example of customer stickiness—Hollingworth himself never moved his account after being required to open a Fidelity account by his employer
Morgan Stanley Traditional wealth management competitor Offers full-service but at higher fees; clients leaving Morgan Stanley for Schwab could save 15-20 bps per year
Hargreaves Lansdown UK asset-light model peer Does not earn significant net interest income, mainly relies on custody fees; profit distribution ratio can reach 70%-80%

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. Andrew Hollingworth believes Schwab is the "Amazon of finance" — offering excellent customer experience and ultra-low fees, yet the company makes most of its profits from areas invisible to customers (net interest margin on cash deposits). This "win-win monetization" model makes customers feel they are getting a bargain, while the company earns substantial profits.

2. Andrew Hollingworth notes that Schwab proactively shifted from an asset-light to an asset-heavy model 25 years ago — this seems counterintuitive, but ultimately became its deepest moat. For competitors to replicate this, they would need not only a client network of comparable scale ($8 trillion) but also an SEC-regulated bank balance sheet ($580 billion).

3. Andrew Hollingworth describes Schwab's acquisition of TD Ameritrade as "the gorilla's knockout blow" — leveraging its own balance sheet advantage, Schwab reduced trading commissions to zero, directly destroying competitors' profit base, and then acquired TD Ameritrade at the stock price before the zero-commission announcement.

4. Andrew Hollingworth proposes the "put up more to make more" framework — Schwab's banking segment falls into this category: deploying more capital while maintaining the same level of ROE. This is similar to what Buffett describes for utilities and should not be simply dismissed as "capital-intensive."

5. Andrew Hollingworth judges that Schwab's capital accumulation phase is nearing its end — the CEO hinted as early as 2018 that the company would begin returning capital to shareholders. The TD Ameritrade acquisition delayed this inflection point by "two to three years or more," but over the long term, a 40%-60% payout ratio will drive mid-teens earnings per share growth.

6. Andrew Hollingworth argues that Schwab's valuation should not get lost in the maze of net interest margin details — using a "look-through earnings" approach: based on Q4 2021 annualized EPS of $3.4, adjusted to 2019 net interest margin levels, the result is approximately $5-$5.5 per share. At a current stock price of around $62, this implies a look-through P/E of about 12x, a reasonable price for a company growing at mid-teens rates.

7. Andrew Hollingworth points out that Schwab's client cash balances naturally hedge against market volatility — when markets decline, clients become more cautious and cash balances increase, meaning Schwab earns more on cash. This is a "natural buffer" that analysts often overlook when building models.

8. Andrew Hollingworth emphasizes founder Charles Schwab's "owner-manager" culture — the company could have taken an asset-light, high-dividend route, but the founder chose the more difficult asset-heavy path. This culture of "deferred gratification" has allowed Schwab to build an "absolutely uncatchable" competitive position.