This episode explains what the Metaverse really is—a connected 3D internet, not a single virtual world—and how far we are from it. Matthew Ball sees Roblox (55 million daily users, mostly kids) and Epic Games (maker of Fortnite, with strong tech) as the closest templates, while Meta's Horizon Worlds lags despite huge spending. He thinks the Metaverse's biggest value may be in industrial uses, like simulating city traffic or surgeries, not just entertainment.
Matthew Ball, in his appearance on the Invest Like the Best podcast, delved into the definition, current state, and future of the Metaverse. The core argument is that the Metaverse is not a single virtual world, but an interoperable digital network gradually evolving from platforms such as Minecraft
Matthew Ball, former head of strategy at Amazon Studios and one of the most authoritative researchers in the Metaverse space, systematically deconstructs the definition, current state, and future trajectory of the Metaverse in this issue. His core thesis: The Metaverse is not a single virtual world, but an interoperable digital network gradually evolving from platforms such as Roblox, Fortnite, and Unreal. Its greatest value lies not in consumer entertainment, but in industrial simulation and infrastructure optimization.
Matthew Ball argues that the existing platforms closest to the Metaverse are Roblox and the Epic Games ecosystem, not Facebook's Horizon Worlds.
Ball holds a cautiously approving view of Meta's long-term intentions: Zuckerberg attempted to acquire Unity as early as 2015, and an internal memo from 2018 stated that the Metaverse is "something they cannot afford to lose." However, Ball reminds readers to note—this is a perspective from a position holder, and Meta's massive investment itself is also a defensive response to its business model (which suffered a $10 billion loss in operating cash flow due to Apple's ATT policy).
Ball breaks down the current technological gaps in VR hardware, arguing this is the core obstacle to Metaverse adoption.
Ball cites John Carmack's view: If asked in 2000 whether the Metaverse could be built with 100 times the computing power available then, Carmack would have said "yes." But 22 years later, the devices in hand have indeed achieved 100-120x the computing power, yet remain far from the goal.
Ball argues that interoperability is the core feature distinguishing the Metaverse from existing 3D platforms, and a key source of its economic value.
Ball refutes the criticism that "the Metaverse lacks demand," arguing that its time source is television, not a replacement for real-world experiences.
Ball argues that the greatest economic value of the Metaverse may come from industrial simulation and infrastructure optimization, rather than consumer entertainment.
| Position | Analyst Stance | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Roblox | Bullish (currently the closest platform to Metaverse) | 55 million DAU, 45% under 13 years old, 75 million virtual worlds |
| Epic Games / Fortnite | Bullish (ecosystem with the most potential) | Fortnite Creative Mode accounts for nearly 50% of playtime; Unreal Engine covers 75% of next-gen games |
| Meta (Facebook) | Neutral to cautious (right direction but lagging execution) | Billions of dollars invested annually; Horizon Worlds is not popular; ATT policy cost $10 billion in operating cash flow |
| NVIDIA | Bullish (core beneficiary of infrastructure) | World's seventh-largest company; Founder Jensen Huang calls gaming "the best strategic choice" |
| Unity | Not explicitly stated | Zuckerberg attempted to acquire it in 2015; Hong Kong International Airport uses it for real-time simulation |
| Microsoft / Activision Blizzard | Bullish (acquisition provides Metaverse foundation) | $75 billion enterprise value acquisition; Satya says "provides the cornerstone for the Metaverse" |
| Disney | Risk warning (lacks gaming capabilities) | No gaming business; Ball believes "this is a problem" |
| Apple | Risk warning (may hinder Metaverse development) | Tim Sweeney says "Apple has banned the Metaverse"; 30% commission, restrictions on OpenGL/WebGL |
| Coinbase / MetaMask / FTX | Not explicitly stated (mentioned as examples of payment services) | No specific data |
| Discord | Not explicitly stated (mentioned as an example of communication services) | No specific data |
| TikTok | Not explicitly stated (mentioned as an example of new companies) | No specific data |
1. The Metaverse is "a real-time, 3D version of the internet" (Matthew Ball) — the key is interoperability, not visual immersion. The internet is powerful because The New York Times can link to The Washington Post; 3D worlds currently lack this capability.
2. VR hardware is still 3x short of the "minimum acceptable specification" (Matthew Ball) — it requires 120Hz refresh rate, 8K display, PS5-level graphics compute, and must solve sensory rejection (users need to know if the house is on fire).
3. The Metaverse's time comes from television, not the real world (Matthew Ball) — 300 million Americans watch 5.5 hours of TV per day, 65% of which is spent alone on the couch. This is the time the Metaverse is most likely to compete for.
4. Roblox's rise is synchronized with the iPad-native generation (Matthew Ball) — Roblox took off in 2016, exactly when the generation of children who "pinch-zoom magazine images with their fingers" reached the age to use Roblox. 75% of children aged 9-12 use Roblox regularly.
5. The key to interoperability is not "bringing a banana peel from Fortnite to Call of Duty" (Matthew Ball) — far more valuable is the continuity of identity, payment history, and creation records. In educational scenarios, physics experiments students conduct in 3D simulations should be reusable on the Moon, Mars, and Venus.
6. The Metaverse's greatest economic value may lie in industrial simulation, not consumer entertainment (Matthew Ball) — Johns Hopkins performed the first live surgery using XR; Tampa used Unreal Engine to simulate the impact of urban development on traffic and temperature. Ball states: "The world's largest and most important software development platform is the world itself."
7. "The computer is the network" — this is the core technological contradiction of the Metaverse (Matthew Ball, quoting Sun Microsystems' motto) — compute power can be resolved on the client or server side, but the speed-of-light limit between them cannot be bypassed. Tim Sweeney bets on Moore's Law (client-side compute improves faster), while the cloud gaming camp bets on network infrastructure.
8. The Metaverse will make all existing internet problems harder to solve (Matthew Ball) — data rights, security, platform power, harassment, misinformation, radicalization — "Radicalization is already terrifying in 2D social media; it is even more terrifying in 3D spaces, and decentralization makes it even more so." But Ball also believes that platform transitions offer a window of opportunity to "reset" these issues.