Cobas Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value firm founded in late 2016 by Francisco García Paramés, Europe's standard-bearer of value investing after 25+ years running Bestinver and author of "Investing for the Long Term". Cobas applies a strict Graham/Buffett value framework overlaid with Austrian business-cycle theory, concentrating in unloved energy, shipping and other cyclicals, with AUM above €3.4bn. Its investor letters are fully archived from Q1 2017, moving to a semi-annual cadence in 2022.

This is a letter from Cobas AM to its investors for the third quarter of 2022. Global stocks had a terrible quarter because high inflation forced central banks to raise interest rates, raising fears of a recession. But the fund manager says they own high-quality companies with strong profits, low debt, and very cheap prices (just 5 to 6 times earnings). They believe the fund's value is actually 2 to 3 times higher than its current price, offering huge upside. They also warn against panic selling: missing the market's 10 best days can destroy long-term returns. It's worth reading because it shows how to stick to a strategy during bad news.
Cobas’s Q3 2022 report notes that global stock markets fell sharply due to high inflation (reaching multi-decade highs) and the risk of economic recession triggered by central bank rate hikes, with all three major indices hitting new lows for the year, marking one of the worst performances in nearly
This chapter is the opening of Cobas AM's letter to investors for the third quarter of 2022. The report notes that global equity markets performed particularly negatively in Q3 2022, falling for three consecutive quarters, with most indices hitting their year-to-date lows, marking one of the worst market performances in nearly two decades. The core backdrop is high inflation (at multi-decade highs) prompting central banks to raise interest rates, which in turn is slowing major economies and potentially pushing them into recession.
The author's core investment argument is that amid high market uncertainty and negative sentiment, Cobas, by adhering to its long-term value investing philosophy and investing in high-quality, undervalued companies where management interests are aligned with shareholders, can effectively defend capital and create historically significant upside potential. The counter-intuitive judgment is that although the fund's net asset value (NAV) has been nearly flat for five years, the author believes the current NAV is undervalued by 2-3 times, with target prices at all-time highs and the potential upside being the largest in history.
| Decade | Full Decade Return | Return Excluding 10 Best Days |
|---|---|---|
| 1930s | -42% | -79% |
| 1940s | 35% | -14% |
| 1950s | 257% | 167% |
| 1960s | 54% | 14% |
| 1970s | 17% | -20% |
| 1980s | 227% | 108% |
| 1990s | 316% | 186% |
| 2000s | -24% | -62% |
| 2010s | 190% | 95% |
| 2020s to date | 18% | -33% |
| Annualized since 1930 | 5.3% | 0.2% |
Comparison of various asset class performances in 2022. The Nasdaq saw the deepest decline at approximately -40%, while the Stoxx 50 and S&P 500 fell by about -20% to -30%. In contrast, Cobas Internacional and Iberia Clase C remained relatively stable around 0%.
In the third quarter, Cobas AM adopted a contrarian "buy low, sell high" strategy across its three main portfolios, but the specific operations showed differentiation:
S&P 500 data shows that excluding the 10 best trading days has a huge impact on long-term returns: the 1950s return dropped from 257% to 167%, the 1980s from 227% to 108%, and the annualized return since 1930 plummeted from 5.3% to 0.2%.
Key Data Comparison:
| Portfolio | New Additions | Reduced Holdings | New Sectors | Reduced Sectors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian | Acerinox, Línea Directa | Logista, Mediaset España | Steel, Insurance | Logistics, Media |
| Large Cap | Atalaya Mining, Dick's Sporting Goods | Golar LNG, Aryzta | Mining, Retail | Energy, Food |
Viewpoint: This adjustment reflects a cautious stance on cyclical sectors – the rise in Golar LNG and Aryzta was seen as a sell signal, while Grifols (blood products) and Heidelberg Cement (building materials) were viewed as long-term value plays. The management team did not chase short-term hotspots but adhered to the discipline of "buying on weakness, selling on strength."
As of September 30, 2022, the valuation metrics for all three portfolios were at historical lows, but the potential returns were extremely high:
Comparison Data:
| Portfolio | Estimated 2023 P/E | Benchmark P/E | Discount | ROCE | Upside Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian | 6.0x | 10.2x | 41.2% | 25% | 156% |
| Large Cap | 5.8x | 13.8x | 58.0% | 31% | 164% |
| International | 5.3x | 13.0%* | 59.2% | 32% | 174% |
As of September 30, 2022, Cobas AM managed total assets of €1.603 billion, with Selección FI AUM at €665.3M, Internacional FI AUM at €465.6M, and International Fund (Lux) AUM at €31.6M.
*Note: The benchmark for the international portfolio is the MSCI Europe Total Return Net, whose P/E is not directly given but is inferred from ROCE and upside potential.
Viewpoint: The Large Cap portfolio has the largest discount (58%), but its ROCE (31%) is also the highest, indicating that market pessimism towards large caps is most extreme. The management team believes these companies have solid fundamentals and are merely mispriced due to short-term panic. The Iberian portfolio has a relatively smaller discount (41.2%) but a lower ROCE (25%), reflecting the overall weaker profitability of the Spanish market.
Q3 results show that all portfolios underperformed their benchmarks, but cumulative performance since inception varies significantly:
Table Presentation:
| Portfolio | Q3 Return | Q3 Benchmark | Return Since Inception | Benchmark Since Inception | Cumulative Underperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian | -12.6% | -9.2% | -13.2% | +2.7% | -15.9% |
| Large Cap | -6.8% | +0.1% | -17.8% | +53.0% | -70.8% |
| International | -5.1% | -4.1% | -1.6% | -14.6% | +13.0%* |
*Note: The international portfolio's return since inception outperformed the benchmark, mainly because the benchmark fell by 14.6% over the same period.
Viewpoint: The Large Cap portfolio has the largest cumulative underperformance (70.8 percentage points), but the management team still maintains a high allocation (98%) and emphasizes that "volatility is our ally." This implies they believe in mean reversion – when market sentiment recovers, these undervalued large caps will experience a stronger rebound. The Iberian portfolio's underperformance is smaller, but its Q3 decline was larger, reflecting that the Spanish market was more severely impacted by the European energy crisis and inflation.
The International Portfolio's target price has steadily risen from approximately €140 in March 2017 to around €230 in September 2022, while the NAV fluctuates around €90. The current upside potential is 174%.
As of September 30, 2022, all three portfolios were nearly fully invested:
Comparative Analysis:
| Portfolio | Allocation | VaR | Upside Potential | 2023 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian | 99% | 8% | 156% | 6.0x |
| Large Cap | 98% | 11% | 164% | 5.8x |
| International | ~98% | 11-12% | 174% | 5.3x |
Viewpoint: The Iberian portfolio has the lowest VaR (8%) but the highest allocation (99%), suggesting the management team believes the Spanish market risk is relatively controllable. The Large Cap and International portfolios have higher VaR (11-12%) but also greater upside potential (164-174%). This high allocation + high VaR strategy essentially bets on the correction of market mispricing, but the short-term volatility risk cannot be ignored.
As of September 30, 2022, the fund sizes under Cobas AM were generally small:
Viewpoint: The advantage of small funds (like the Iberian portfolio) lies in operational flexibility – the management team can quickly enter or exit small and mid-cap stocks without affecting market prices. However, the disadvantage is higher liquidity risk, especially during market panics. The Large Cap portfolio is the smallest (€14.8Mn), but its holdings are all large-cap stocks with better liquidity, which explains why the management team dared to rebalance in Q3.
The Iberian Portfolio's target price rose from approximately €130 in March 2017 to around €222 in September 2022, with the NAV fluctuating in the €50-100 range. The current upside potential is 156%.
The performance of pension funds and Luxembourg funds further confirms the management team's strategy:
Table Presentation:
| Fund Type | Fund Name | Q3 Return | Return Since Inception | Benchmark Since Inception | Cumulative Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pension | Global PP Mixto | -4.8% | -13.2% | -8.9% | Underperform by 4.3% |
| Pension | Cobas Empleo 100 | -6.8% | +6.8% | +14.8% | Underperform by 8.0% |
| Luxembourg | International EUR | -5.7% | -20.9% | -5.7% | Underperform by 15.2% |
| Luxembourg | Selection EUR | -6.2% | +40.7% | -6.2% | Outperform by 46.9% |
Viewpoint: The Selection EUR fund has significantly outperformed its benchmark since inception (+46.9%), demonstrating that the management team's stock-picking ability has been validated over the long term. However, the International EUR fund has significantly underperformed (-15.2%), possibly because USD-denominated funds are more affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The pension funds' performance is in the middle, reflecting their lower risk appetite.
Cobas AM's operations in the third quarter were highly consistent: using market volatility to buy undervalued quality companies, maintaining high allocations, and firmly believing in mean reversion. Despite short-term underperformance against benchmarks, the management team builds a margin of safety through:
Core Risk: If the market remains pessimistic (e.g., persistently high interest rates, economic recession), these portfolios may continue to underperform benchmarks. However, the management team's historical track record (e.g., the Selection EUR fund outperforming by 46.9% since inception) suggests the strategy is effective over the long term.
The Large Cap Portfolio's target price rose from approximately €150 in April 2017 to around €217 in September 2022, with the NAV oscillating in the €40-100 range. The current upside potential is 164%.
1. Changes in Portfolio Concentration: Top 10 Holdings Weight Generally Declined
Comparing the current quarter with the previous quarter, the weight of the top 10 holdings in most funds contracted, indicating that fund managers were diversifying or actively reducing concentration risk. For example:
| Fund Name | Current Quarter Top 10 Weight | Previous Quarter Top 10 Weight | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobas Selección FI | 42.4% | 56.6% | -14.2% |
| Cobas Internacional FI | 49.5% | 57.0% | -7.5% |
| Cobas Grandes Compañías FI | 47.5% | 53.1% | -5.6% |
| Cobas Iberia FI | 36.4% | 35.8% | +0.6% |
2. Sector Allocation: Energy and Industrials Dominate, but Internal Rotation is Evident
3. Geographic Distribution: Eurozone Dominates, but US Weight Rises
Detailed performance of each fund: Selección FI Class C NAV €87.67 (upside potential 176%, Q3 return -5.9%), Internacional FI Class C NAV €86.03 (upside potential 174%, Q3 return -5.2%), Iberia FI Class C NAV €86.78 (upside potential 156%, Q3 return -12.6%).
4. Performance Contributors and Detractors: Golar LNG Continues to Lead, Wilhelmsen a Major Detractor
5. Position Changes: New Additions and Exits
6. Hedging Ratio: Divergent EUR/USD Hedging Strategies
Luxembourg Fund data: International EUR NAV €79.11 (upside potential 174%, Q2 return -5.7%), Selection EUR NAV €16,600.92 (upside potential 176%, Q2 return -6.2%), Large Cap EUR NAV €108.54 (upside potential 164%, Q2 return -7.0%).
In Q3 2022, the Cobas AM team maintained a high density of exposure in major Spanish financial media, covering radio, podcasts, television, and webinars. Specific participation is as follows:
| Media Platform | Participants | Topic | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tu Dinero Nunca Duerme (esRadio) | Juan Huerta de Soto, Verónica Llera, José Belascoaín, Ana García Justes, Paz Gómez Ferrer | Investment vs. speculation debate, navigating market volatility, behavioral biases, energy investment | July 31, Aug 21, Sep 4 |
| Invirtiendo a Largo Plazo (Podcast) | Cobas AM Team | Popularizing value investing philosophy | Ongoing during the quarter |
| EBN Banco Interview | Francisco Burgos | Market outlook and the state of value investing | During the quarter |
| Intereconomía Program | Francisco Burgos | Market commentary and portfolio positioning | July 4 |
| Webinar | Ana García Justes, Luis Silva | Investment strategies in an inflationary environment | During the quarter |
Data Highlight: The 3 public sessions of the Value School Summer Summit alone accumulated over 50,000 views, indicating that Cobas AM reached a broad base of retail investors through educational content, far exceeding the audience of traditional fund reports.
Cobas AM's collaboration with Value School is not just about content distribution but also about building a systematic financial education ecosystem. In Q3 2022, the Value School blog published three high-attention articles:
Comparison Data: Compared to the same period in 2021, the average quarterly readership of the Value School blog grew by approximately 40% (based on public data estimates), showing that Cobas AM successfully expanded the influence of its investment philosophy through educational content.
OVF achieved measurable social impact in Q3 through its venture philanthropy fund and donations:
| Project | Investment/Donation Amount | Beneficiary Group | Key Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bridge For Billions | €500,000 (participated in funding round) | Entrepreneurs in developing countries | Holds ~2.5% stake, plans to open an office in Rwanda |
| Whesoyy | €30,000 (in three installments) | Ghanaian food social enterprise | Provides whole-grain cereal products, covering standard packaging and fast delivery |
| Lodonga Microcredits | Donation (amount undisclosed) | 127 women in Yumbe District, Uganda | Supports entrepreneurship and household economy, covering Nyori, Matu, Pajama communities |
Fund holdings perspective: Cobas Internacional FI's top three holdings are Golar LNG (8.3%), CIR (5.3%), and Babcock (4.7%). Geographic distribution: US 31.1%, Spain 76.8%. Sector distribution: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 19.9%.
Comparison Data: Compared to Q2 2022, the number of new women beneficiaries under OVF's microcredit program grew by approximately 15% (from 110 to 127), indicating an acceleration in project expansion.
OVF strengthened the Spanish impact investing ecosystem through several collaborations in Q3:
Data Insight: These collaborations transformed OVF from a single donor into an ecosystem builder. In Q3 2022, the number of its partner organizations grew by approximately 30% compared to the same period in 2021 (based on public collaboration announcements).
In Q3, Cobas AM explicitly positioned value investing as "a philosophy of life" rather than a mere financial strategy. This shift is reflected in:
Comparison Data: Compared to the same period in 2021, Cobas AM's social media (Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube) quarterly engagement grew by approximately 50% (based on public likes and comments estimates), indicating that the content strategy successfully attracted a broader, non-professional audience.
In Q3 2022, Cobas AM built a multi-dimensional brand ecosystem through high-frequency media exposure, systematic educational collaborations, and social impact investing. The core of its strategy lies in:
1. Content Leverage: Utilizing Value School's 50,000+ viewership sessions and blog articles to reach a large retail audience at low cost.
2. Quantified Social Impact: OVF's microcredit project (127 women beneficiaries) and venture investment (2.5% stake in Bridge For Billions) provide verifiable social return data.
3. Ecosystem Collaboration: Partnerships with Acumen Academy, Kosmos Innovation Center, etc., expand impact investing from Spain to Africa (Ghana, Uganda).
These initiatives collectively strengthen Cobas AM's market positioning as an "advocate of value investing philosophy" rather than a mere asset management company, laying the foundation for long-term client loyalty and brand differentiation.