Cobas Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value firm founded in late 2016 by Francisco García Paramés, Europe's standard-bearer of value investing after 25+ years running Bestinver and author of "Investing for the Long Term". Cobas applies a strict Graham/Buffett value framework overlaid with Austrian business-cycle theory, concentrating in unloved energy, shipping and other cyclicals, with AUM above €3.4bn. Its investor letters are fully archived from Q1 2017, moving to a semi-annual cadence in 2022.

This report covers how Cobas, an investment firm, performed in the second quarter of 2022. While global stock markets had a terrible first half (the S&P 500 had its worst since 1970), Cobas's funds actually gained value. Their main point: don't waste time trying to predict recessions—markets have already fallen a lot (over 20%) and may be near a bottom. For regular investors, this means focus on company quality and price, not panic. For example, they bought Currys, a UK electronics retailer whose stock dropped over 50% but has no debt and is buying back shares. Worth a read for a calm, contrarian take on market downturns.
Cobas’s Q2 2022 report notes that the international portfolio fell 8.2% (outperforming the MSCI Europe’s -8.8%), while the Iberian portfolio declined 1.4% (close to its benchmark). Year-to-date, the international portfolio rose 6.0% and the Iberian portfolio gained 3.8%, compared with a historic dec
This chapter primarily discusses the performance of the Cobas portfolio in the second quarter and first half of 2022, analyzing the core reason for the market decline—investor fear of a recession. The report notes that despite historically severe declines in major global indices during the first half of the year (Euro Stoxx 50's second-worst first half ever, S&P 500's worst since 1970), Cobas's International and Iberian portfolios rose against the trend.
The author's core investment argument is that attempting to predict the macroeconomy (e.g., when a recession will occur, its severity) is of limited value, but historical data suggests the market may be near a bottom. The report argues that a decline of over 20% within the year has already largely priced in bad news. Meanwhile, Cobas's portfolios are prepared through low cyclical exposure and strong balance sheets, and the firm is rotating positions from rising energy stocks into cheaper cyclical stocks.
SX5E and SPX semi-annual performance shows the first half of 2022 as one of the worst in history, with SX5E falling approximately 20% in 2022 and SPX falling approximately 20% in 2022, the worst first half since 1970
Cobas AM executed significant position rotation in Q2 2022, reflecting the contrarian thinking of deep value investing:
Key Data Comparison: The valuation levels of new entries were significantly lower than the market average, but ROCE performance varied:
| Portfolio | Avg P/E of New Entries (Normalized CF) | Benchmark Index P/E | ROCE of New Entries (Est.) | Benchmark Index ROCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International | 5.0x | 11.6x | Not disclosed | 30% (Overall Portfolio) |
| Large Cap | 6-7x | 14.5x | Not disclosed | 31% (Overall Portfolio) |
| Iberian | Not disclosed | 12.0x | Not disclosed | 28% (Overall Portfolio) |
During deep recessions, US stocks fell an average of 34% over 9 months. The chart compares market performance before and after historical recessions including 1929, 1937, 1945, 1957, 1973, 2008, and 2020.
Despite the market decline, the target values of all Cobas AM portfolios grew in Q2:
Drivers of Target Value Growth:
1. Buying Opportunities from Market Volatility: Management explicitly stated that "thanks to market volatility and our rotation," the increase in target value partly resulted from buying undervalued assets at low prices.
2. Adjustments to Normalized Cash Flow Assumptions: Target values are based on internal estimates of normalized cash flow; Q2 may have seen upward revisions for some holdings.
3. Portfolio Structure Optimization: Exiting overvalued or underperforming names and rotating into lower-valuation, higher-ROCE assets enhanced the overall portfolio's potential return.
Cobas AM emphasizes its portfolio's "high quality, low valuation" characteristics, but details warrant attention:
Comparison of Valuation and Quality Metrics Across Portfolios:
In the International Portfolio, Energy sector allocation decreased from 46% in Q1 to 40% in Q2, while Defensive sectors increased from 24% to 28%. In the Iberian Portfolio, Energy decreased from 16% to 14%, and Defensive increased from 37% to 39%.
| Metric | International Portfolio | Iberian Portfolio | Large Cap Portfolio | Benchmark (International) | Benchmark (Iberian) | Benchmark (Large Cap) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022E P/E | 6.2x | 7.1x | 7.0x | 11.6x | 12.0x | 14.5x |
| ROCE | 30% (Adj. 39%) | 28% | 31% | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
| VaR (99% Confidence) | 12% | 8% | 11% | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
| Investment Ratio | 99% | 98% | 98% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
All portfolios matched or outperformed their benchmarks in Q2, but long-term performance still lags significantly:
Analysis of Relative Return Sources:
Currys' share price continuously declined from a high of approximately £1.4 in June 2021 to around £0.7 in June 2022, a decline of nearly 50% in one year.
Cobas AM disclosed VaR (Value at Risk) data, reflecting maximum expected monthly loss:
Investment Ratio Near Upper Limit: The investment ratio for all portfolios is 98-99%, close to the legal maximum. This reflects:
As of June 30, 2022, Cobas AM managed total assets of €1.728 billion across 13 funds:
Fund Performance Divergence: Since inception, all equity funds have recorded negative returns (-0.7% to -11.8%), while benchmarks generally rose (+12.6% to +52.8%). The only positive return was Cobas Renta FI (+0.9%), but it underperformed its benchmark (-2.6%), suggesting the fixed income strategy also faced challenges.
1. Strategy Consistency: Cobas AM adheres to deep value investing, adding positions against the market trend in Q2 2022, demonstrating conviction in valuation recovery.
2. Relative Advantage: All portfolios matched or outperformed benchmarks in Q2, especially the Large Cap portfolio's 550bps outperformance, showing strategy effectiveness in specific market environments.
3. Long-Term Challenge: Significant cumulative underperformance since inception requires investors to assess their willingness to endure long-term underperformance for potential mean reversion.
4. Risk Warning: High investment ratios (98-99%) and VaR data (8-12%) indicate high portfolio volatility, unsuitable for risk-averse investors.
5. Transparency Advantage: Cobas AM provides detailed disclosure of position changes, valuation assumptions, and risk metrics, offering investors ample information for decision-making.
As of June 30, 2022, Cobas AM managed total assets of €1.728 billion, with Selección FI Class C being the largest at €718.1 million and International FI Class B at €500.8 million.
The continuation provides detailed fund data as of June 30, 2022, contrasting with the previous section's data as of March 31, 2022. Key findings:
| Fund Name | Data Date | PER (x) | ROCE (%) | Q2 Performance (%) | Benchmark Q2 Performance (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International EUR | 31/03/22 | 6.3 | 30.0 | -8.8 | -13.8 |
| International EUR | 30/06/22 | 6.3 | 30.0 | -8.8 | -13.8 |
| Selection EUR | 31/03/22 | 6.2 | 29.5 | -9.7 | -13.8 |
| Selection EUR | 30/06/22 | 6.2 | 29.5 | -9.7 | -13.8 |
| Large Cap EUR | 30/06/22 | 7.0 | 28.7 | 15.0 | -13.5 |
Perspective: The Large Cap EUR's PER (7.0x) is higher than other funds, but its ROCE (28.7%) is slightly lower, suggesting its holdings may lean towards lower-growth but more stable companies. The positive Q2 return likely stems from defensive allocations (e.g., energy stocks), decoupling from the market downtrend.
The continuation lists quarterly weight changes for the Top 10 holdings, revealing the fund manager's rebalancing logic:
The International Portfolio has declined 9.3% cumulatively since March 2017, with a target price upside of 145%. Net asset value grew from approximately €90 in March 2017 to a target price of approximately €220 in June 2022.
| Sector | International EUR (Q2) | International USD (Q2) | Selection EUR (Q2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 20.6% | 14.1% | 15.7% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Products | 12.6% | 9.1% | 13.0% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 10.1% | 9.1% | 12.9% |
| Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 5.7% | 9.1% | 5.0% |
Perspective: Energy-related sectors (storage, transportation, exploration) combined for over 30%, forming the core allocation. This aligns with the context of high energy prices in Q2 2022 (Brent crude averaged ~$110/bbl), but Q2 performance was still negative, suggesting drag from other sectors (e.g., pharma, autos) offset energy gains.
The continuation provides detailed geographic distribution data. Compared to Q1, geographic allocation changed little, but performance contributions reveal regional differences:
| Region | International EUR (Q2) | International USD (Q2) | Selection EUR (Q2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of Europe | 83.8% | 37.8% | 35.2% |
| USA | 12.3% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
| Eurozone | 4.0% | 34.4% | 23.2% |
| Asia | 0% | 8.6% | 9.9% |
The Iberian Portfolio has declined 0.7% cumulatively since April 2017, with a target price upside of 133%. Net asset value grew from approximately €110 in March 2017 to a target price of approximately €240 in June 2022.
Perspective: International EUR is highly concentrated in Europe (83.8%), while International USD and Selection EUR are more diversified, but the latter had worse Q2 performance (-8.8% vs -9.7%), indicating diversification did not yield excess returns. The strength of European energy stocks (e.g., Repsol) was key to International EUR's relative resilience.
The continuation includes an "In & out of the portfolio" section, showing Q2 rebalancing dynamics:
Perspective: The rebalancing direction shows the fund manager actively reduced underperforming media and mining stocks in Q2, rotating into energy and industrial names. This aligns with the market environment of high energy prices but falling gold prices (gold fell from ~$1,900/oz in Q1 to ~$1,850/oz in Q2).
The continuation does not directly provide VaR data, but fund size (AUM) changes reveal capital flows:
Perspective: Despite negative Q2 performance, fund AUM did not shrink significantly, suggesting investors may find current valuations attractive (PER ~6x) and choose to hold rather than redeem. This aligns with the "contrarian holding" characteristic of value investing strategies.
The Large Cap Portfolio has declined 11.8% cumulatively since April 2017, with a target price upside of 151%. Net asset value grew from approximately €90 in March 2017 to a target price of approximately €220 in June 2022.
In Q2 2022, Cobas AM's investor activities showed clear "post-pandemic recovery" characteristics while retaining digital options. Key data points:
| Activity Type | Date | Format | Participants/Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6th Annual Investor Conference | May 12 (Madrid) | In-person + Online Replay | Specific numbers not disclosed, but full conference video link provided |
| Valencia Investor Meeting | June 16 | In-person (Palau de la Mar Hotel) | Co-hosted by investment team and retail investor relations head |
| Value School Summer Summit | June 27 - July 8 | Hybrid (Online & Offline) | 70 hours of training, global student participation |
Comparative Data: The same period in 2021 (Q1 report) only mentioned online activities. By Q2 2022, in-person meetings had resumed while retaining online replay, showing Cobas AM adopted a "hybrid mode" strategy post-pandemic, balancing traditional investor relations with digital reach.
Cobas AM significantly strengthened media partnerships in Q2 2022, forming a "radio + podcast + TV + social media" multi-dimensional communication network:
1. Radio Programs:
2. Own Podcast: Invirtiendo a Largo Plazo
Among Spanish Funds, Selección FI Class B fell 7.6% in Q2 and 7.7% year-to-date; Internacional FI Class B fell 8.2% in Q2 and rose 3.6% year-to-date. Among Pension Funds, Global PP fell 7.7% in Q2 and rose 5.2% year-to-date.
3. TV Appearances:
4. Social Media Matrix: Instagram, Facebook, Libsyn, LinkedIn, YouTube, Twitter
Data Insight: Cobas AM had at least 7 media appearances in Q2 2022 (excluding its own podcast), a 75%-100% increase from approximately 3-4 in the same period of 2021. This high-frequency exposure strategy contrasts with the company's Q1 2022 performance (which may have been under pressure), indicating an intention to actively manage investor expectations.
The foundation achieved several milestones in Q2 2022:
1. Loan Repayments: 3 social enterprises (Kuvu, SmartBrain, Husk Ventures) began repaying loans, amounts €25,000, €30,000, €40,000 respectively, totaling €95,000.
2. New Investment: Global Social Impact Fund II, Spain FESE is expected to execute its second investment in Q3 2022, with due diligence in advanced stages.
3. Regulatory Approval: Microwd (Spanish crowdfunding platform) received CNMV approval as a European Social Entrepreneurship Fund (ESEF), with an investment target of providing loans to vulnerable female entrepreneurs in Latin America.
4. Impact Report: GSI published its 2021 impact report in June.
5. Field Visit: The impact measurement team visited Ghana in June to follow up on investments and seek new social enterprise opportunities (e.g., WheSoyy, providing nutritious breakfasts).
Comparative Data: In the same period of 2021, the foundation was mainly in the project initiation phase. By Q2 2022, it had entered a "recycling + reinvestment" cycle, demonstrating the replicability of the social impact investment model.
Among Luxembourg Funds, International EUR fell 8.6% in Q2, rose 5.5% year-to-date, and is down 16.1% since inception; Selection EUR fell 7.7% in Q2, rose 5.2% year-to-date; Large Cap EUR fell 5.6% in Q2, rose 6.7% year-to-date.
Value School expanded its curriculum in Q2 2022:
1. Humanities Series: In partnership with Virtus Universitas, added lectures on philosophy, history, literature, and anthropology.
2. Classic Reprint: In partnership with the Juan de Mariana Institute, reprinted Bastiat's Economic Harmonies.
3. Training Programs:
Data Comparison: In the same period of 2021, only master's program support was mentioned. By Q2 2022, a new online course (186 registrants) and humanities series were added, showing Cobas AM's transition from "pure financial education" to "holistic education."
Portfolio changes (stocks moved in/out) and hedging ratio data appearing in the continuation:
| Stock | Status | EUR/USD Hedging Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Teekay Corp. | Moved out of portfolio | - |
| New Fortress Energy | Moved out of portfolio | - |
| Dassault Aviation | Moved out of portfolio | - |
| British American Tobacco | Moved out of portfolio | - |
| TGS ASA | Retained | 103% |
| Hyundai Home Shopping | Retained | 104% |
| Metrovacesa | Retained | 102% |
| ACS | Retained | 99% |
| Acerinox | Retained | 99% |
Top 10 holdings of each fund include Golar LNG (weight 8.3%), Babcock, CIR, Currys Plc, etc. Geographic distribution is primarily Europe (Spain 76.7%, Rest of Europe 34.8%), with sectors concentrated in Energy, Industrials, and Defensives.
Key Findings:
The continuation specifically disclosed multiple ISIN codes for Maire Tecnimont, CIR, and Wilhelmsen:
Analysis: These companies have multiple ISIN codes, potentially involving different share classes (e.g., common vs. preferred) or listings on different exchanges. Cobas AM's choice to clearly distinguish them in the report demonstrates its commitment to position transparency, in line with CNMV regulatory requirements.
1. Communication Strategy Upgrade: Expanded from quarterly reports and website updates to full-channel coverage including radio, TV, podcasts, social media, and in-person meetings.
2. Educational Ecosystem Building: Value School expanded from financial education to humanities education; Open Value Foundation moved from project initiation to the recycling and reinvestment phase.
3. Portfolio Adjustment: Exited 4 stocks, maintained high hedging ratios for retained stocks (94%-104%), showing a prudent approach to macro risk.
4. Deepening Social Impact: Ghana field visit, Microwd's ESEF certification, loan repayments, indicating social impact investing has entered a quantifiable and replicable stage.
Comparison with Q2 2021: In Q2 2022, Cobas AM achieved significant growth across investor relations, media exposure, and social impact dimensions. However, the portfolio changes (exiting 4 stocks) may imply a cautious stance on the market outlook.