Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
This piece says that geopolitical conflicts and AI warfare are making metals like copper and uranium more strategically valuable, and mining stocks may benefit. Rick Rule is bullish on this trend. Key names: Barrick (aims to boost North American gold output to 3M oz, but Pakistan copper project is on hold), Newmont (generated $5.3B free cash flow in H1, bought back $4.6B in shares, reducing share count by 9%), and First Quantum (its Panama copper mine report was misread by the market—talks may restart; stock crashed 30% then halted).
Rick Rule believes that geopolitical conflicts and the militarization of AI are driving up the strategic premium for defense metals such as copper and uranium, while traditional mining valuation models face revision. At the same time, large gold and copper producers are in a cycle of capacity adjustment and shareholder returns. [Optimistic]
Robert Friedland warns that the US will lose sovereignty if it cannot secure critical mineral supplies, arguing that the militarization of AI is dramatically increasing the strategic value of defense metals and rendering traditional mining valuation methods obsolete. At the MFA conference, Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) founder Friedland showed a video of humanoid robots, dog-like robots, and drones carrying high explosives and machine guns charging on a battlefield, and asked rhetorically: “Why are we still running NPV models on mining when, if you don’t have the metals to defend yourself, you are dead?” — meaning: “If we don’t even have the metals to defend ourselves, what NPV model are we running?” He noted that BMO has raised its copper price forecast to $18,000/ton, while Deutsche Bank sees $22,000/ton (see Chart 1). Readers should note that Friedland, as a mineral developer, has a strong vested interest, but his geopolitical logic is being validated by policy actions.
Barrick (NYSE:B) adopts a strategy of 'stability first, growth second,' with Nevada Gold Mines targeting a return to 3 million ounces/year, while copper projects show clear divergence. CEO Mark Hill emphasized spending the first year restoring credibility. The company maintains its plan for an IPO of North American operations by end-2026, with Hill leading North America and Sebastien Bouchard leading the rest of the world. COO Tim Cribb stated that Nevada Gold Mines (a joint venture with Newmont (NEM)) plans to expand Cortez to 1 million ounces/year by building a new roaster similar to Carlin, with Carlin also capable of becoming a 1 million ounce hub, and is studying rail transport of Cortez ore to Carlin for processing. On copper, the Lumwana mine in Zambia targets first production from its expansion in Q1 2028, doubling annual output from 117,000 tonnes to 240,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the Reko Diq project in Pakistan was suspended in March, with Bouchard stating that large-scale investment will only occur after improving 'conditions' (referring to physical security).
Newmont (NEM) has completed its portfolio adjustments following the Newcrest acquisition and has shifted to aggressive share buybacks and dividend increases using substantial free cash flow to create per-share value. CEO Natascha Viljoen stated that future priorities include operational consistency, margin protection, brownfield expansions, and per-share value creation. In the first half of 2026, free cash flow reached a record $5.3 billion, of which $4.6 billion was returned via dividends and buybacks, reducing share count by 9% (100 million shares). An additional $6 billion buyback authorization was approved this year. Viljoen indicated that the lower share count will drive an increase in quarterly dividends. Although production is at a trough in 2026, the company targets annual output of 6 million ounces of gold and 150,000 tonnes of copper.
Gold Fields (GFI)'s A$27 billion hostile bid for Northern Star was rejected, but potential synergies are significant; First Quantum's Panama copper mine report caused market misinterpretation, actually pointing toward restart negotiations. GFI proposed a cash-and-stock offer of A$27 per share (22% premium) for Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), which was rejected by the board. CEO Mike Fraser said that if completed, production could exceed 4 million ounces/year, reserves reach 77 million ounces, with synergies estimated at $4-5 billion. On the other side, First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) saw its shares drop over 30% before trading was halted, following a report from Panama's Ministerial Council on the Cobre Panama mine. The report made 17 recommendations, including authorizing the start of formal negotiations to assess a new agreement, and mentioning 'orderly closure.' A Scotiabank research note indicated that the market misinterpreted this as a near-term closure, when it actually refers to final closure after the mine's end of life; it expects President Mulino to accept the recommendations and initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, higher copper price forecasts (BMO $18,000/ton, DB $22,000/ton) provide valuation support for FM.
The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) will provide up to $7 billion in financing to support critical mineral and energy projects in Argentina, marking the US using government funds to lock in overseas supply. The plan was announced at the UN General Assembly and is part of the 'Andes-Atlantic Corridor' initiative, covering transportation, energy, mining, and digital infrastructure. Previously, EXIM had provided $500 million to Glencore (LSE:GLEN)'s Project Vault. Operating companies in Argentina can use the financing to purchase US equipment within two years. This clearly indicates US policy support for strategic metal supply chains, benefiting mining companies with operations in the country.
This article presents two main themes: first, geopolitical conflict and the militarization of AI are driving up the strategic premium for defense metals such as copper and uranium, with traditional valuation models facing revision; second, large gold and copper producers (Barrick, Newmont, etc.) are in a cycle of capacity adjustments and shareholder returns, while riskier projects (Reko Diq, Cobre Panama) remain constrained by political/security issues. Bias Note: Rick Rule himself is a mining investor, so his views are naturally bullish on resource stocks; the EXIM news comes from the company's official website, but there is uncertainty regarding the timing of policy implementation and execution effectiveness.
The author notes that large-scale financing continues to flow into mine development, with an increasing share coming from non-traditional sources. While developer production carries risks, the subsequent valuation re-rating potential is substantial. The author's original statement, "Large sums continue to be raised for mine development, and not all from traditional sources," implies that substantial capital is being raised for mine development, and not all of it originates from conventional channels. He also notes that "developers going into production is a risk, but the reward is the substantial valuation re-rate."
In specific cases, Troilus Mining (TSX:TLG) secured USD 850 million in debt financing commitments from KfW IPEX-Bank and Societe Generale for the Troilus gold-copper project in Quebec, with a total planned financing package of CAD 1.1 billion (including a proposed CAD 250 million contribution from Export Development Canada). The senior secured loan is priced at export credit terms, featuring a three-year construction grace period and a ten-year amortization structure.
Mayfair Gold (TSXV:MFG) signed a CAD 10 million strategic investment from Macquarie (at USD 4.26 per share, a 10% premium), along with a USD 300 million project financing letter of intent for the Fenn-Gib gold project in Timmins, Ontario, covering most of the USD 450 million initial capital outlined in the 2026 PFS. This also includes Macquarie's gold off-take on the first 50,000 ounces of annual production (capped at 300,000 ounces cumulative).
| Company | Financing Type | Amount | Key Capital Provider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troilus Mining | Debt Financing (Commitment Letter) | USD 850 million (Total package ~CAD 1.1 billion) | KfW IPEX-Bank, Societe Generale, EDC |
| Mayfair Gold | Strategic Investment + Project Financing Intent | CAD 10 million (Equity) + USD 300 million (Debt intent) | Macquarie |
Several companies have completed capital raising through equity instruments and introduced top-tier mining streaming companies such as Franco-Nevada as shareholders. Mayfair Gold's strategic investment was already mentioned in the previous section (10% premium). Revival Gold (TSXV:RVG) filed a CAD 200 million base shelf prospectus, intending to issue shares, warrants, subscription receipts, units, debt securities, or stock purchase contracts depending on market conditions, with proceeds used for continued development of the Mercur gold project in Utah and exploration at Beartrack-Arnett in Idaho.
Banyan Gold (TSXV:BYN) completed a CAD 54.3 million financing and welcomed Franco-Nevada (TSX:FNV) as a new shareholder. Proceeds will advance the AurMac and Nitra gold projects in the Yukon.
Dakota Gold improved oxide recovery rates through PFS trade-off studies, and Aris Mining completed the ESIA for the Soto Norte project in Colombia, pending environmental permit submission. Dakota Gold (NYSE-A:DC) completed a PFS trade-off study for its Richmond Hill gold oxide heap leach project in South Dakota, selecting an 0.5-inch design crush size, which increased modeled oxide recovery from 75.9% at 1 inch to 80.4%, and adopted a single heap leach facility within the Phase 1 IACF area. The PFS is expected in Q4 2026, with a feasibility study targeted for mid-2027.
Aris Mining (TSX/NYSE:ARIS) completed the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the Soto Norte gold-copper project in Santander, Colombia. Community engagement will begin in October, followed by submission of the ESIA and environmental permit application. Colombia's new government has revoked the restrictive La Baja permanent and temporary protected area extensions, resetting the area's expiration to March 2027 (aligned with the project timeline), while the Santurbán Páramo boundary delineation remains under existing protections. Soto Norte is located outside the Páramo and its buffer zone. The redesigned project holds reserves of 4.6 million ounces of gold (grade 7 g/t), with a mine life of 22 years, using a 3,500 t/d concentrate-only process (no cyanide, no mercury), of which 750 t/d will process ore from local miners (continuing Aris's partnership model in Segovia and Marmato).
Focus on developers supported by non-traditional financing—especially those nearing production with significant valuation re-rating potential. Investors should note that author Rick Rule is the founder of the Rule Symposium, and the original text references "Rule Symposium company/participant" multiple times (e.g., Revival, Banyan, Dakota, Aris). These companies have affiliations with him, so promotional bias should be considered when interpreting. Meanwhile, each project still faces risks related to permits, community relations, and funding, such as the ongoing uncertainty in Colombia's policy environment.
| Ticker | Direction | Author's Stance in One Sentence | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrick (NYSE:B) | Hold & Observe | Stability first, growth second; North American gold resumes growth but copper expansion faces uncertainty. | Nevada Gold Mines target 3M oz/yr; Lumwana copper mine targets first production of 240kt/yr in 2028. |
| Newmont (NEM) | Hold & Observe | Shareholder returns prioritized, creating per-share value through massive buybacks and dividends. | 2026H1 free cash flow $5.3B, buybacks $4.6B, share count reduced by 9%. |
| First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) | Hold & Observe | Panama copper mine report misinterpreted by market; actually points to restart negotiations, copper price upside provides valuation support. | Shares fell over 30% on the report then halted; BMO sees copper at $18,000/t, DB at $22,000/t. |
| Gold Fields (GFI) | Not specified | Hostile bid for Northern Star rejected, but potential synergies are significant. | Offer A$27/sh cash + stock, 22% premium; if successful, output could exceed 4M oz/yr, synergies $4-5B. |
| Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) | Not specified | Under hostile bid from Gold Fields, board has rejected. | Acquisition offer A$27B. |
| Troilus Mining (TSX:TLG) | Not specified | Secured non-traditional debt financing; project entering construction phase, meaningful valuation re-rating potential. | $850M debt financing commitment, total financing package ~C$1.1B. |
| Mayfair Gold (TSXV:MFG) | Not specified | Received strategic investment from Macquarie and project financing indication, covering most initial capital. | C$10M equity (10% premium) + $300M project financing indication. |
| Banyan Gold (TSXV:BYN) | Not specified | Completed financing and introduced top-tier streaming company Franco-Nevada as shareholder. | C$54.3M financing. |
| Franco-Nevada (TSX:FNV) | Not specified | Became new shareholder of Banyan Gold, reflecting top mining streaming company's positioning. | — |
| Dakota Gold (NYSE-A:DC) | Not specified | Improved oxide recovery through PFS trade-off study; feasibility study progressing. | Oxide recovery increased from 75.9% to 80.4%; PFS expected completion in Q4 2026. |
| Aris Mining (TSX/NYSE:ARIS) | Not specified | Completed ESIA for Soto Norte project in Colombia, awaiting environmental permit application. | Reserves 4.6M oz gold (grade 7g/t), mine life 22 years. |
| Glencore (LSE:GLEN) | Not specified | Received $500M EXIM loan as part of US supply chain strategy. | EXIM provided $500M for Project Vault. |
| Revival Gold (TSXV:RVG) | Not specified | Filed a base shelf prospectus, intends to finance project advancement subject to market conditions. | C$200M base shelf prospectus. |