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Oakmark FundsQuarterly30 Jun 2026Source: oakmark.com

Wrong in the right direction | International equity market commentary 2Q 2026

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This commentary from Oakmark explains why they haven't sold their holdings in ASML (a chip equipment maker) and Samsung (a memory chip maker) even though AI hype has driven their stocks up. They say they were 'wrong in the right direction'—they underestimated how much AI would boost profits, but that mistake actually made them money. The key insight: These companies' long-term competitive advantages (like ASML's near-monopoly in EUV lithography) matter more than the temporary AI boom. For ordinary investors, it's a reminder not to sell a great company just because its stock shot up—check if its moat is still strong. Worth reading because it shows how disciplined investors think beyond market hype.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark’s second-quarter 2026 international equity market commentary notes that AI demand continues to diverge: “AI losers” (software, IT services) keep declining, while “AI winners” (semiconductors, equipment) contributed approximately 35% of the MSCI World ex USA index’s returns, despite an averag

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter opens Oakmark's second-quarter 2026 international equity market commentary. The report notes that the market has continued the divergence seen in the first quarter: AI-related stocks (semiconductors, equipment) have continued to rise, while non-AI sectors (software, IT services) have continued to decline. One exception is oil prices, which have fallen back to near pre-war levels as the U.S. and Iran approach a compromise.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is: Oakmark's positions in ASML and Samsung represent "directionally correct mistakes" — they underestimated the positive impact of AI on the fundamentals of these two companies, but this mistake is favorable. Despite significant short-term stock price gains, Oakmark has not substantially reduced its positions because its valuation models indicate that the market is overly pessimistic about the sustainability of cash flows driven by AI, and the companies' long-term competitive advantages (rather than the AI super-cycle) are the fundamental logic behind the holdings.

Key Arguments and Data

  • AI demand explosion: The annualized revenue of leading AI labs (excluding Google) has exceeded $80 billion, four times the level from the same period last year.
  • HBM capacity consumption: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) consumes three times the capacity of legacy memory, leading to supply shortages.
  • Industry profits: Semiconductor industry revenue and profits are already several times their previous peak levels and continue to grow at an astonishing pace.
  • Position adjustment mechanism: Samsung has triggered internal reviews twice this year due to valuation increases exceeding 10%, but Oakmark has chosen to maintain its positions.
  • Valuation signals: Current low trading multiples indicate market skepticism about the sustainability of these cash flows, but Oakmark believes that even if the cash dividend is temporary, the competitive landscape has undergone a structural shift (from spot market pricing to multi-year "take-or-pay" contracts).

Companies/Assets Involved

Company Role Key Data View
ASML Semiconductor equipment Near-monopoly supplier of EUV lithography machines Bullish; holding logic is long-term competitive advantage, not the AI super-cycle
Samsung Memory manufacturing Scale and process leadership in HBM Bullish; holding logic is decades of accumulated scale and process advantages
Intertek Testing and certification Acquired by private equity Bullish on board decision; believes accepting the acquisition is a rational choice

Investment Implications

  • For AI-related assets: Do not rush to take profits due to short-term stock price gains; reassess the sustainability of AI's impact on fundamentals. Current market skepticism about cash flow sustainability may be excessive, while structural changes in the competitive landscape (e.g., long-term contracts) add positive skew.
  • For value investing strategies: When fundamentals exceed expectations, respond through systematic valuation adjustment mechanisms (e.g., multiple reviews) rather than mechanically "selling on strength." The key is to distinguish between "temporary cash dividends" and "structural competitive advantage changes."
  • For non-AI assets: Focus on cases like Intertek — when management and the board can rationally assess the execution risk of self-improvement opportunities and accept reasonable offers, such companies may become acquisition targets.