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Oakmark FundsQuarterly30 Sep 2024Source: oakmark.com

Oakmark Fund: Third Calendar Quarter 2024

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This report explains how Oakmark Fund performed in the third quarter of 2024. It beat the S&P 500, returning 7.38% vs. 5.89%. The fund looks for stocks that are undervalued because of short-term fears. For example, Charles Schwab (a brokerage) was hurt by regulation and lower interest income, but Oakmark thinks its deposit base will stabilize and its long-term advantages still matter. Merck (a drugmaker) faces a patent expiration for its top drug Keytruda in 2028, but Oakmark says the cash flow from current products already covers the stock price, so the pipeline of new drugs is almost free. Genuine Parts (a car and industrial parts distributor) has a huge network of stores that's hard to copy, and its stock is cheap relative to profits. The fund sold American Express and Moody's because they reached fair value. The key lesson: when expensive and cheap stocks diverge a lot, look for companies whose cash flows justify the price even if bad news is scaring others.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark Fund returned 7.38% in the third quarter of 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 5.89%, and has achieved a cumulative return of 12.86% since inception, surpassing the index's 10.67%. Core view: Against the backdrop of an unusually wide spread between high-PE and low-PE stocks, the fund co

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter is the Oakmark Fund's investment review for the third quarter of 2024, focusing on the fund's performance during the quarter, key contributors and detractors, and the latest portfolio adjustments. The market backdrop is characterized by an unusually wide valuation gap between high-PE and low-PE stocks, which the report argues creates broad opportunities for value investing.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is that in an environment of extreme valuation dispersion, the fund can consistently outperform the broader market by selecting undervalued stocks across various industries. Counterintuitive judgments include: regulatory pressure on Charles Schwab is overpriced by the market, as the report believes its deposit decline will stabilize and long-term scale advantages will still create value; concerns over Merck's Keytruda patent expiration are exaggerated, as the report argues that cash flows from existing products already cover the current stock price, and the pipeline value is nearly ignored by the market.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Performance Comparison: The fund returned 7.38% for the quarter, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.89%; since inception, the cumulative return is 12.86%, surpassing the index's 10.67%.
  • CBRE Group: Second-quarter revenue, earnings per share, and free cash flow all exceeded market expectations; the CEO expressed optimism about the company's prospects and the quality of the execution team, highlighting multiple growth paths, including expanding business lines with greater cyclical resilience.
  • Charles Schwab: Net interest income (the largest revenue source) declined year-over-year, as falling deposit balances forced the company to use higher-cost funding sources; combined with regulatory scrutiny of brokerages' cash balance interest rates, this weighed on the entire sector's stock price. However, the report believes Schwab's role as an independent advisor service provider makes it less affected by regulation than peers, and deposit declines will stabilize, with business growth gradually replacing high-cost funding with low-cost deposits.
  • Merck: Keytruda is an immuno-oncology drug treating multiple cancers and is expected to become one of the best-selling prescription drugs in history. The market worries about its U.S. patent expiration in 2028, but the report argues that lifecycle management can extend its value; more importantly, the discounted cash flow from already marketed products already covers the entire current stock price, making the pipeline value nearly zero.
  • Genuine Parts Company: Operates in the automotive and industrial replacement parts market, with the NAPA brand owning nearly 2,000 company-operated stores and nearly 4,800 independent stores; Motion Industries' revenue is roughly twice that of its closest direct competitor. Historical returns have been consistently high, and the stock's PE ratio trades at a significant discount to peers and the broader market.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company Role Key Data Bullish/Bearish
CBRE Group Top contributor Q2 revenue, EPS, FCF exceeded expectations Bullish: Strong management, clear growth path
Charles Schwab Largest detractor Net interest income declined YoY Bullish (contrarian): Deposit decline to stabilize, scale advantage long-term effective
Genuine Parts Company New buy ~2,000 company stores + 4,800 independent stores; Motion revenue 2x competitor Bullish: PE discount, high returns, scale moat
Merck New buy Keytruda could become best-selling drug ever; 2028 patent expiry Bullish: Existing product cash flows cover stock price, pipeline value undervalued
American Express Sold Approaching intrinsic value Neutral: Reached target valuation
Moody's Sold Approaching intrinsic value Neutral: Reached target valuation
Cisco Systems Sold Small loss Bearish: Fundamentals missed expectations

Investment Implications

  • Value opportunities remain in extreme valuation dispersion: With the current abnormal spread between high-PE and low-PE stocks, continue to seek undervalued stocks across sectors, especially those where the market has over-discounted due to short-term concerns (e.g., patent expirations, regulatory pressure).
  • Focus on "margin of safety" companies where cash flows cover the stock price: As the Merck case shows, when cash flows from existing products already cover the current market cap, downside risk is limited even if the core product faces a patent cliff, while pipeline value provides additional upside.
  • Watch for sector-wide mispricing under regulatory pressure: Schwab's regulatory impact has been amplified by the market, but as an independent advisor service provider, its exposure should be less than peers, offering an entry point for contrarian investing.
  • Distribution network moats deserve attention: Genuine Parts' NAPA and Motion Industries networks are difficult to replicate, with scale advantages providing pricing power and stable demand, making such assets attractive when trading at valuation discounts.