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Oakmark FundsQuarterly31 Mar 2011Source: oakmark.com

Oakmark Fund: First Quarter 2011

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This is Oakmark Fund's letter for early 2011. Oil prices jumped 17-24%, and energy stocks soared, but the fund deliberately owned very few of them because they believed high oil prices wouldn't last. As a result, the fund gained 5%, slightly behind the S&P 500's 6%. Still, some holdings did well: H&R Block (tax prep) rose 42%, Harley-Davidson 23%. The biggest losers were Cisco (-15%) and Best Buy (-16%), but the manager thinks both are still cheap. The key takeaway: professional investors sometimes avoid hot trends (like energy) and instead buy good companies that have temporarily fallen out of favor.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

The Oakmark Fund rose 5% in the first quarter of 2011, slightly underperforming the S&P 500's 6% gain, primarily due to the strong performance of the energy sector (oil prices rose 17%-24%), while the fund had a low allocation to this sector, believing that high oil prices were unsustainable. Perfor

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This section is the Oakmark Fund's first-quarter 2011 letter from the fund manager, primarily reviewing the fund's performance for the quarter, reasons for the gap relative to the benchmark, divergence in individual stock performance, and portfolio adjustments. The market backdrop featured a sharp rise in oil prices (17%-24%), with the energy sector performing strongly, while the fund had a low allocation to this sector.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is: Current high oil prices are unsustainable and do not reflect the long-term market-clearing price. Therefore, the fund deliberately underweights energy stocks and values them based on the assumption that oil prices will decline. This is a contrarian judgment against market consensus—when energy stocks surged due to soaring oil prices, the fund chose not to chase the rally.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Performance Comparison: The fund rose 5% in the first quarter, slightly below the S&P 500's 6% gain.
  • Oil Prices and Energy Stocks: West Texas Intermediate crude rose 17%, and North Sea Brent rose 24%; energy stocks averaged gains 2-3 times that of the S&P 500.
  • Individual Stock Performance: The fund had 18 stocks posting double-digit gains, with only 2 experiencing double-digit losses. The largest losses came from Cisco Systems (-15%) and Best Buy (-16%), but 7 stocks still posted gains exceeding the largest loss.
  • Top Gainers:
Company Gain
H&R Block +42%
Harley Davidson +23%
Capital One +22%
Cenovus +19%
EnCana +19%
Viacom +18%
DirecTV +17%
  • Portfolio Adjustments: Through the spin-off of Northrop Grumman, the fund received Huntington Ingalls Industries. It sold the stock because its total market capitalization (including debt) traded at an excessive premium relative to pre-tax, pre-interest cash flow. The proceeds were reinvested into Northrop Grumman, Unilever, Aflac, and FedEx.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company Role Key Data Bullish/Bearish
Cisco Systems Largest Loser -15%, 1.2% of portfolio The author believes it remains attractive but needs to reassess long-term forecasts
Best Buy Largest Loser -16%, 1.5% of portfolio Same as above
H&R Block Top Gainer +42%, 1.4% of portfolio Bullish, as early tax filing results exceeded expectations and subprime loan losses were negligible
Harley Davidson Top Gainer +23%, 1.8% of portfolio Bullish
Capital One Top Gainer +22%, 2.1% of portfolio Bullish
Huntington Ingalls Sold Immediately After Spin-off 0% (fully liquidated) Bearish, believing the valuation premium was excessive
Northrop Grumman Added to 1.9% of portfolio Bullish
Unilever Added to 1.6% of portfolio Bullish
Aflac Added to 1.5% of portfolio Bullish
FedEx Added to 1.5% of portfolio Bullish

Investment Insights

  • Caution on the Energy Sector: The author explicitly believes high oil prices are unsustainable, and investors should be wary of the risk of chasing energy stocks, especially when oil prices surge due to short-term geopolitical or speculative factors.
  • Focus on Contrarian Opportunities: The fund still finds Cisco and Best Buy attractive after their sharp declines, indicating the author's tendency to seek out mispriced stocks amid negative news.
  • Caution in Spin-off Arbitrage: Huntington Ingalls was sold immediately after the spin-off, suggesting that investors should independently evaluate the valuation of newly spun-off companies rather than passively holding them.