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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast2 Jan 2018Source: traffic.libsyn.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Sheel Tyle - The Future of Venture Capital - [Invest Like the Best, EP.70]

In plain words

This interview features 26-year-old investor Sheel Tyle on venture capital's future. He thinks the market is overheated—some startups with no product get $20-30 million valuations. He's bullish on Africa, calling it 'the last frontier,' and backs Andela (a coding school with <1% acceptance and 99% retention). He says self-driving cars are overhyped short-term and blockchain still lacks a killer app. His advice: don't raise too much money just because it's easy.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

In this episode of Invest Like the Best, the host speaks with 26-year-old venture capitalist Sheel Tyle, who recently raised $100 million for his self-founded fund, Amplo, serving as its sole GP. The core argument: VCs should focus on emerging markets like Africa, using Andela as an example to illus

~11 min full read · 10 sections
Deep Analysis

Sheel Tyle - The Future of Venture Capital - [Invest Like the Best, EP.70]

At a Glance

Sheel Tyle, a 26-year-old venture capitalist, former partner at NEA, now founder of Amplo, which raised $100 million with him as the sole GP. The main thread of this episode: VC opportunities in emerging markets (especially Africa), the current valuation bubble assessment, and differentiated views on multiple tech sectors. The most impactful judgment in the entire episode: Sheel Tyle believes that "the ICO craze was sheer madness, taking advantage of regulatory vacuums" — he bought Bitcoin at $100 and sold at $1,000, but now believes blockchain remains "a technology in search of a solution," with no killer app yet.


Africa: The Biggest Opportunity and the Andela Case

Sheel Tyle argues that Africa represents "the greatest investment opportunity of our generation, perhaps the last underdeveloped frontier on the planet."

Historical Context and Data Support:

  • Nigeria currently has a population of approximately 190 million, ranking eighth globally, and is expected to rise to fifth within five years; some believe the future top three in population could be "India, Nigeria, and China."
  • Over half of Nigeria's population is under 30, with a youth unemployment rate of about 60% — "Idle young people are one of the worst things for a country."
  • His parents, Indian immigrants, took him to emerging markets like Kenya (1998) and Brazil (2001) from a young age, saying, "They wanted us to see how the real world works."

Andela Mechanism Breakdown:

  • Slogan: "Talent is universal, but opportunity is not."
  • A four-year program, similar to an MIT-style educational institution, training in computer science and soft skills.
  • Economic model innovation: Instead of students paying tuition, companies pay students from day one — "This means suddenly everyone can afford education."
  • Acceptance rate <1%, student retention rate 99% — "They could go anywhere and work directly as engineers, but they choose to stay, just like Stanford students choosing not to drop out."
  • Context: In the U.S., there are 5 vacant engineering positions for every 1 qualified developer.

Valuation and Momentum Differences:

  • African startups are valued far lower than their Silicon Valley counterparts, but the demographic momentum is enormous.
  • "If you can navigate the chaos and adapt to uncomfortable environments, there are plenty of opportunities."

Current VC Environment: Bubble and Caution

Sheel Tyle believes the present is not a good time for venture capital, telling LPs, "I've made almost no new investments in the past two years."

Valuation Data Chain:

  • Normal market: Seed-stage companies (pre-product, average founders) should be valued in the single digits ($3–6 million)
  • Current bull market: The same companies are valued in the double digits ($12–15 million)
  • Extreme case: Yesterday, he spoke with a founder who had a successful track record. With no customers and no product, this founder received pre-launch valuation offers of $20–30 million from top-tier institutions, and some even offered uncapped convertible notes — "When uncapped notes start becoming the norm, I know things are overheated."

Assessment of VC as an Asset Class:

  • "VC as an asset class is terrible. Investing in an average VC fund, you'll likely get your principal back or lose money."
  • This is a winner-take-all asset class — only 10–20 top-tier funds consistently generate returns that outperform other asset classes.
  • These top funds collectively manage around $5 billion (assuming each currently manages a $500 million fund). Sovereign wealth funds want to invest in all of them but cannot.
  • The list of top funds is constantly evolving: stalwarts like Sequoia and Benchmark, and newcomers like Social Capital and Thrive are squeezing in.

Advice for Founders:

  • Do not over-raise due to market liquidity concerns — "Even during a recession, the best companies can still secure funding."
  • The danger of over-raising: It increases the burn rate → forces faster growth → missing milestones becomes riskier; at the same time, it dilutes founder equity.
  • Keeping a buffer is good, but irresponsibly taking on more capital is not.

Autonomous Driving: The Most Important Technological Change, but the Timeline Is Overhyped

Sheel Tyle argues that autonomous driving "may be the most important technological change of our generation," but it is severely overhyped in the short term, with profound long-term implications.

Current state and three major obstacles:

1. Technology: Basic functions are feasible, but price points have not yet reached mass-market levels, and edge cases remain unresolved—two feet of standing water, blizzards, children suddenly darting across the road, and other "unknown unknowns."

2. Insurance: Liability allocation is undetermined—software? Hardware? Government? Vehicle owner?

3. Regulation and politics: Driving (cars/trucks/buses/taxis) is the largest profession in the U.S., employing over 3 million people, more than 1% of the population—"We have never seen such a rapid and large-scale job transition."

Positive impacts:

  • Saving lives—eliminating drunk driving, etc.
  • Productivity gains—the average American commute exceeds 30 minutes per day, which could be converted into productive time.
  • Reshaping urban planning—could trigger a shift back from cities to suburbs.

From a VC investment perspective:

  • Hardware innovation requires billions of dollars and is not suited for VC.
  • Focus on the software layer: high-definition maps (millimeter-level precision; Google Maps is insufficient), AI modeling of edge cases, and in-vehicle software platforms (potentially as valuable as iOS or Netflix, with a captive audience for a fixed daily duration).

Hot Sector Quick Take: Sheel Tyle's "Overvalued/Undervalued" Calls

Sector Call Rationale
VR/AR Overvalued Has specific use cases (gaming, sports training), but "the technology itself may be bigger than the actual solution"
Blockchain/ICO Overvalued He was an early Bitcoin bull (bought at $100, sold at $1,000), but now "four years on, still no killer app"; ICOs are "completely crazy, exploiting regulatory ambiguity" — large ICOs like Filecoin "either got lucky or lost everything"
Machine Learning/AI Undervalued "AI will affect everything, and already affects everything" — the core is using data for decision-making, with data volume, computing power, and algorithms all growing exponentially
Drones Fairly Priced Military applications are undervalued; commercial applications (photography/weddings) are fairly valued; as a delivery tool (Amazon drone delivery) may be undervalued, but three major issues remain: cost, payload, and regulation

The Value of Networks: Small, Tight, and Cross-Disciplinary

Sheel Tyle argues that "networks are one of the most important things," but defines them in a way that fundamentally differs from conventional understanding.

  • A true network: Building sincere, warm relationships with a small group of people, without any commercial expectations
  • He does not attend any conferences or cocktail parties and hosts only 1–2 dinners per year, inviting his closest friends
  • The most powerful networks are cross-disciplinary and cross-sector — his fund's board partners include former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, whose network spans politics, CEO circles, and the startup ecosystem
  • "When your node is a circle, rather than a line pointing in only one direction, that is when it is most valuable"

Public Safety Software: An Overlooked Investment Frontier

Sheel Tyle focuses on technological innovation in traditional industries, particularly public safety software.

OneConcern Case:

  • Uses AI to help emergency agencies like FEMA rapidly assess the location and extent of damage after natural disasters
  • Inputs thousands of data points: building materials, construction year, hurricane occurrence time, likely occupancy rates at specific times, building height, etc.
  • In disasters such as Hurricane Harvey, "minutes can mean the difference between life and death"

Mark43 Case (Best Founder Decision):

  • Replaces 20-to-30-year-old software in police vehicles, allowing officers to spend more time on patrol rather than data entry
  • The founder personally patrolled with police at 3 a.m. — "This could be life-threatening, but he believed that without doing so, he could not understand what police and communities truly need"
  • This is the best founder decision Sheel Tyle has ever seen: truly immersing oneself in the community of the problem to be solved

Mentioned Positions

Position Guest Stance Key Data
Andela Bullish (invested, serves on board) Acceptance rate <1%, student retention rate 99%; 5 vacancies per qualified developer in the U.S.
Robinhood Bullish (invested, large check in 2015) No specific data provided
OneConcern Bullish (Amplo has invested) Uses AI to help FEMA assess natural disaster losses
Mark43 Bullish (Amplo has invested) Replaces 20-30 year old legacy software in police vehicles
Filecoin Neutral/Risk warning Large ICO, "either get lucky or lose it all"
Coinbase Mentioned (Marc Andreessen/Fred Wilson investment case) Not explicitly stated

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "VC as an asset class is terrible" (Sheel Tyle) — Investing in an average VC fund most likely results in getting back the principal or losing money; only 10-20 top-tier funds consistently generate excess returns, with a combined AUM of only about $5 billion.

2. "When uncapped convertible notes started becoming the norm, I knew things were overheated" (Sheel Tyle) — He encountered a founder with a successful track record who, with no customers and no product, received pre-launch valuation offers of $20-30 million, and even uncapped convertible notes.

3. "Four years into blockchain, there is still no killer app" (Sheel Tyle) — He once bought Bitcoin at $100 and sold at $1,000, but now believes ICOs are "completely insane, taking advantage of regulatory ambiguity"; large ICOs like Filecoin "either got lucky or lost everything."

4. "Autonomous driving may be the most important technological change of our generation, but it is overhyped in the short term" (Sheel Tyle) — Three major obstacles: edge cases remain unresolved, insurance liability is undetermined, and political resistance from over 3 million drivers facing job loss.

5. "Real networks are not conferences and cocktail parties, but building genuine relationships with a small group of people, without any business expectations" (Sheel Tyle) — He does not attend any conferences and only hosts 1-2 dinners per year; the most powerful networks are cross-disciplinary (e.g., former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard).

6. "The best founder decisions are truly integrating into the community of the problem they are solving" (Sheel Tyle) — Mark43 founders patrolled with police at 3 a.m., risking their lives to understand the real needs of the police and the community.

7. "Africa is the biggest investment opportunity of our generation" (Sheel Tyle) — Nigeria has 190 million people, with 60% youth unemployment, yet talent is no different from Silicon Valley; Andela, with a <1% acceptance rate and 99% retention rate, proves that "talent is universal, but opportunity is not."

8. "The best VCs add 10x value while spending only one-tenth of the time" (Sheel Tyle) — Doing what founders have no time or ability to do: recruiting independent directors, writing op-eds in the New York Times to influence regulation, and calling key people.