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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast21 Nov 2023Source: joincolossus.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Lior Susan - Leave the World Better than You Found It - [Invest Like the Best, EP.353]

In plain words

Lior Susan, a former Israeli special forces soldier turned investor, says the West is losing an 'information war' fueled by TikTok and petrodollars. After the Oct 7 attack, he believes rebuilding physical industries (manufacturing, energy, chips) is a strategic defense. He's cautiously optimistic: if the West rebuilds and unites, adversaries will join. Key holdings: Peak Energy (sodium-ion storage, $5M seed, ex-Tesla team), Bright Machines (factory automation), Inovix (battery company, IPO'd).

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This episode of Invest Like the Best features a conversation with Lior Susan, founder of Eclipse Ventures, focusing on his personal perspective on geopolitics and investment thinking following the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack. Susan, who previously served in an Israeli special forces unit, belie

~10 min full read · 9 sections
Deep Analysis

This Issue at a Glance

Lior Susan, founder of Eclipse Ventures and former Israeli special forces member, now focuses on investing in physical industrial technology companies that integrate "bits and atoms". The core of this conversation revolves around the geopolitical landscape and investment thinking after the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7. Susan's core judgment is that the Western world is losing an "information war", and rebuilding the industrial strength of the physical industry (manufacturing, energy, semiconductors, etc.) is a more important strategic defense measure than military power.


主题小节

1. Facts and Panorama of the October 7 Attack: "This is the 9/11 from Brooklyn"

Susan explicitly defines the October 7 attack as "a 9/11-level event, but closer in distance and more primitive in method." He provides key data points:

  • Timeline: On October 7, 2023, at 6:45 AM, approximately 4,000 Hamas fighters (including elite Nukhba forces and lower-level members) crossed from Gaza into southern Israel through the border fence.
  • Casualty scale: 1,400 people killed within 20 hours (ages ranging from 3 months to 87 years), and 228 people kidnapped (ages 6 months to 87 years) and taken into Gaza's tunnels.
  • Analogy: Susan says, "This is the 9/11 from Brooklyn —— they didn't come by plane, they just crossed the river (border fence) directly."

He deliberately distinguishes between three concepts: "Gaza is not Palestine. Gaza is Gaza. It is part of Palestine, but there is also the West Bank." He notes that Hamas took control of Gaza via elections in 2007, while Israel had already withdrawn from Gaza in 2005.

Susan's perspective: Israel is the world's third-largest country in venture capital per capita (14% of GDP from technology), while Hamas-controlled Gaza has "nothing but death." He identifies the common trait of "radical Islam" organizations —— anyone who does not believe in their ideology deserves death, and all are funded by Iran.


II. Information Warfare: The West Is Losing the Battle for Minds, and TikTok Is the Weapon

Susan argues that the greatest risk today is not traditional military conflict, but "an information war waged by an organized, well-funded propaganda machine." He describes the causal chain:

  • Mechanism: Iran, China, Russia and other countries use social media platforms (especially TikTok) to instill narratives such as "Israel is the occupier" into the minds of young people in the West, through algorithms, deepfakes, and bot armies.
  • Historical comparison: He contrasts the post-9/11 United States—when there was no social media, and therefore no slogans like "from the river to the sea" appeared on American college campuses. Today, people in Manhattan, at Stanford, and at Columbia University chant "put the Jews in the gas chamber."
  • Susan's judgment: "This is not free speech, it is hate propaganda. Free speech cannot override security."

Host Patrick presses: Why did these young people not protest similarly after 9/11, but do so today? Susan answers unequivocally: "Because there was no social media back then. We protect free speech in the Constitution, but the other side is precisely exploiting this loophole, using propaganda tools to create chaos within Western societies."

Susan's self-reflection: "I thought my job was to build great companies and change the world. But that is not enough. Because the other side devotes all its time, all its resources, all its oil money to creating chaos."


3. Rebuilding the Physical Industry: From 'Investment Opportunity' to 'Strategic Defense Mission'

Susan's core investment thesis is that the physical industry (manufacturing, energy, logistics, semiconductors, etc.) is the largest sector of global GDP with the lowest technology penetration, and that technology tools (cloud computing, sensors, open-source software, simulation) have significantly lowered the barrier for early-stage investment. He provides data:

  • Global GDP is approximately $100 trillion, of which about $80 trillion comes from the physical industry.
  • Technology penetration: only single digits.
  • Average early check: approximately $8 million (Eclipse's typical initial investment amount).

Susan explains why 'technology companies building cars' rather than 'carmakers using technology' is the future: Tesla, NVIDIA, and Amazon are all examples of 'using a tech stack to transform the physical industry.' He cites Peak Energy (using sodium-ion chemistry for long-duration energy storage): team background (Tesla + Northvolt), using simulation + machine learning for chemical optimization, all hardware from off-the-shelf supply chains, based on open-source software like AWS cloud + Kafka + Datadog — $5 million can build a prototype.

He explicitly upgrades rebuilding the physical industry from an 'investment opportunity' to a 'mission': 'If we can build Tesla, SpaceX, Bright Machines, the Western world will have more control. We lost our industrialization capability, gave manufacturing to China under the guise of globalization, and the other side did not play fair. If we want to protect freedom of speech and religious freedom, we must rebuild these industries.'

He provides a specific strategic logic chain: If I successfully build a large-scale energy storage company, the U.S. will buy less Iranian oil; Iran will have no money if it does not sell oil; without money, it cannot fund extremist groups like Hamas.


4. Leadership Vacuum and the Shadow of "World War III"

Susan is sharply critical of current Western leadership, describing it as a period of "leadership vacuum." He points out:

  • Israel: In recent years, it has failed to unite the country and to help neighboring economies develop in order to drive out extremist organizations.
  • United States: Bipartisan hatred, bureaucracy, budget delays — leading to "We have two fronts (Ukraine, Israel) being attacked simultaneously, while China keeps making statements on Taiwan, and the Iran nuclear issue is accelerating — this is no coincidence, but the consequence of the Western leadership vacuum."
  • His judgment: "I believe we are on the 1-yard line of World War III (American football term, meaning about to score) — two camps, one supported by extremist Islam."

Susan is cautiously optimistic about "whether we can win": He believes "most people want the same things — food on the table, good education and healthcare for their children." He quotes his grandfather's motto "Leave this place better than you found it," and argues that only when the West rebuilds its industrial strength and demonstrates unity will the other side "lay down their arms and join us."


5. Future Path: A Bridge from 'Believing in Death' to 'Believing in Life'

Susan provides a 'post-hoc' roadmap and uses his own experience to demonstrate a feasible direction.

  • His own practice this year: 10 trips to Abu Dhabi and Dubai for business, bringing family to visit, believing 'This is the future; what matters is not the passport, but doing business, building companies, and solving problems.'
  • Vision for Gaza: 'You should become Singapore. You have a port, a passage to Egypt. You should have your own airport. You should establish R&D centers. I, a Jew, am willing to be the first to open an R&D center in Gaza to build a bridge.'
  • Appeal to Palestinians: 'Oppose those terrorists. They are not here to liberate you; they themselves sit in the Four Seasons Hotel in Qatar as billionaires (Hamas leader Khaled Mashal has a net worth of $1-2 billion), while you live in the worst place in the world.'

Susan acknowledges suffering on both sides: He mentions a conversation with an Israeli Arab doctor—the latter is a southern resident whose nephew was killed, and Hamas says 'You are worse than the Jews because you live among them.' He mentions that Israeli hospitals treat captured Hamas wounded, in beds next to Israelis they killed—'Because we believe in life, not in death.'

He acknowledges uncertainty: 'I don't know if this can succeed, but I believe if we do it right—rebuild the economy, show strength, extend a helping hand immediately—the other side will join us.'


Mentioned Companies

Company Guest Attitude Key Data
Peak Energy Bullish (Eclipse portfolio company in construction) Sodium-ion chemistry long-duration energy storage; team from Tesla + Northvolt; $5 million Series A
Inovix Bullish (Invested and listed) Another battery company; Eclipse has helped it go public
Bright Machines Bullish (Eclipse invested) Manufacturing automation; no specific valuation given
NVIDIA Neutral (mentioned as industry benchmark) Hardware manufacturing company, top 10 in S&P 500
Tesla Neutral (mentioned as a model benchmark) Tech company building cars
SpaceX Neutral (mentioned as a model benchmark) Tech company building rockets
IntuCell Historical (already exited) Software-defined networking company; sold to Cisco in 2012 for $475 million

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. “This is 9/11 coming from Brooklyn” – Susan used this analogy to illustrate the scale and proximity of the Hamas attack. Support: 4,000 people crossed the border, 1,400 killed in 20 hours, 228 taken hostage, while Israel and Gaza are separated by only a wall.

2. “The West is losing the information war—TikTok is the weapon, oil money is the ammunition.” Support: Iran sells oil to China, uses the proceeds to fund Hamas, Hezbollah, and five other extremist groups, and leverages social media algorithms to feed anti-Israel narratives to Western youth.

3. “Global GDP is roughly $100 trillion, $80 trillion comes from the physical economy, and technology penetration is still in the single digits.” Support: This is Eclipse’s core investment thesis—a large market, low penetration, and maturing technology tools that have lowered the early-stage investment threshold to $8 million.

4. “It is time to rebuild industrial capacity; manufacturing capability carries more weight than nuclear weapons.” Support: COVID exposed U.S. reliance on overseas manufacturing; rebuilding semiconductors (5nm/3nm), energy storage, and manufacturing automation not only reduces dependence on Iranian oil but also prevents supply chain disruptions in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict.

5. “We are not losing to military force—we are losing to a leadership vacuum.” Support: Fighting on two fronts in Ukraine and Israel, China’s mounting pressure on Taiwan, and the accelerating Iranian nuclear issue—these are “not coincidences, but the result of a Western leadership vacuum.”

6. “Free speech cannot override security.” Support: Susan believes that chanting “put the Jews in the gas chamber” is not free speech but hateful propaganda, and should be restricted.

7. “My grandfather’s motto—‘leave this place better than you found it’—is the reason I do everything.” Support: He admits he “has not done enough,” but this is the core philosophy that drives him to build companies, invest, and speak out.

8. “My daughter, six and a half years old, saw me sad, came over and hugged me and said ‘everything will be okay’—that was the kindest thing anyone has ever done for me.” Support: This was his answer to the question “What is the kindest thing someone has done for you?”—showing the interplay between personal emotion and large geopolitical issues.