Scottish Mortgage is Baillie Gifford's flagship investment trust (founded 1909, LSE ticker SMT), known for its maximalist growth style — long-term stakes in Tesla, Amazon and ASML plus bold allocations to private companies like SpaceX and ByteDance. It is the UK retail investor's flagship vehicle for global disruptive growth.
This update from Scottish Mortgage covers their portfolio moves. Their big win is SpaceX: a $200M investment in 2018 is now worth about $5B at IPO, making it a top return driver. They're betting on the full AI chain, from power plants (Vistra Energy, EQT) to chips (NVIDIA) to models (Anthropic), arguing AI turns electricity into intelligence. They sold Tesla (after a $6B profit, thinking the valuation got too high), Netflix, and Kering, and added to NVIDIA, Cloudflare, and others.
Scottish Mortgage investment specialist Hamish Maxwell provided an update on portfolio dynamics at the "Change Drives Growth" digital conference. The core theme is how major transformations are reshaping the portfolio and identifying the next generation of high-potential companies. Key conclusions i
Hamish Maxwell (Scottish Mortgage Investment Specialist) provided an update on portfolio dynamics at the "Change Drives Growth" digital conference. The core theme is how major transformations reshape the portfolio and the search for next-generation potential companies. SpaceX, valued at approximately $30 billion when invested in 2018, has seen its recent IPO valuation approach $2 trillion, with the initial $200 million investment growing to around $5 billion, making it a major contributor to returns.
Hamish Maxwell believes that SpaceX's IPO is the most significant development event for the portfolio in the near term, with an extremely rare magnitude of valuation growth.
> “Our initial $200m investment grew to around $5bn at IPO, making SpaceX a big contributor to returns.”
Maxwell notes that AI investment spans the entire industry chain, with Anthropic's valuation rising from approximately $200 billion to nearly $1 trillion in less than a year, making it one of the top ten holdings.
> “AI increasingly turns electricity into intelligence. Data centres need reliable round-the-clock power, while new supply can take years to build.”
Maxwell emphasizes that active management also involves selling, and strong past returns do not make a company permanently attractive.
> “Consider Tesla, it generated around $6bn of profit for our investors, a 13 times multiple in invested capital, despite high share price volatility. After 13 years, we sold the remainder, concluding the valuation reflected too much of the future opportunity.”
Maxwell highlights a broader pipeline of emerging opportunities and notes that sentiment around Moderna is recovering from extremely low levels.
| Position | Analyst Stance | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | Bullish (high conviction, management scale) | 2018 valuation ~$30B → IPO valuation ~$2T; initial $200M investment → ~$5B |
| Anthropic | Bullish (top 10 holding) | First investment in 2025 at ~$200B valuation → June 2025 ~$1T |
| Tesla | Fully exited | Generated ~$6B profit, 13x capital invested; sold after 13 years |
| Netflix | Exited | Growth matured |
| Kering | Exited | Low confidence in rebound |
| NVIDIA | Added to position | AI chips |
| Cloudflare | Added to position | Internet infrastructure |
| Nubank | Added to position | Digital banking |
| SEA | Added to position | E-commerce and digital finance |
| Vistra Energy | New position | AI-driven electricity demand |
| EQT Corporation | New position | AI-driven electricity demand |
| Moderna | Neutral to positive | Sentiment recovering from extremely low levels; cancer vaccine trial breakthrough |
| MercadoLibre | Recent drag | Not specified |
| Spotify | Recent drag | Not specified |
| Adgen | Recent drag | Not specified |
| Meituan | Recent headwind | Not specified |
| PDD | Recent headwind | Not specified |
| ByteDance | Relatively strong performance | Not specified |
| CATL | Relatively strong performance | Not specified |
| MiniMax | Relatively strong performance | Not specified |
| Rednote | Under observation | Consumer platform |
| Figma | Under observation | Design software |
| Loyal | Under observation | Pet longevity |
| Zipline | Under observation | Drone logistics |
| Enveda | Under observation | Biotech |
| PsiQuantum | Under observation | Quantum computing |
1. SpaceX’s valuation growth demonstrates a “breakthrough stacking” effect (Hamish Maxwell): Reusable rockets → Starlink → Starship → Potential AI orbital market, each breakthrough unlocks the next phase, forming a valuation flywheel.
2. AI is increasingly converting electricity into intelligence (Hamish Maxwell): Data centers require reliable 24/7 power, while new supply construction takes years—this is the core logic behind the new positions in Vistra Energy and EQT Corporation.
3. Anthropic’s commercial growth is “unprecedented” (Hamish Maxwell): Its valuation rose from approximately $200 billion at the time of the initial investment in 2025 to nearly $1 trillion by June this year, growing roughly 4x in less than a year, making it one of the top ten holdings.
4. Strong past returns do not make a company permanently attractive (Hamish Maxwell): Tesla generated $6 billion in profit (13x invested capital), but was liquidated after 13 years because its valuation had priced in too many future opportunities.
5. Markets do not smoothly acknowledge progress (Hamish Maxwell): SpaceX and AI positions contributed significantly, but MercadoLibre, Spotify, Sea, and Adgen have recently dragged down returns—structural changes create long-term opportunities, but short-term volatility is unavoidable.
6. Sentiment on Moderna has rebounded from extremely low levels (Hamish Maxwell): Breakthrough progress in cancer vaccine trials is the key catalyst, but Maxwell did not specify any clear position changes.
7. China opportunities are highly differentiated (Hamish Maxwell): Meituan and PDD face headwinds, while ByteDance, CATL, and MiniMax perform stronger—within the same market, different business models and competitive positions lead to vastly different outcomes.