Cobas Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value firm founded in late 2016 by Francisco García Paramés, Europe's standard-bearer of value investing after 25+ years running Bestinver and author of "Investing for the Long Term". Cobas applies a strict Graham/Buffett value framework overlaid with Austrian business-cycle theory, concentrating in unloved energy, shipping and other cyclicals, with AUM above €3.4bn. Its investor letters are fully archived from Q1 2017, moving to a semi-annual cadence in 2022.

This report covers how Spanish fund manager Cobas AM invested in the first half of 2023. They buy stocks others are selling – for example, when oil prices fell, they added to their positions. Their reasoning: even if oil drops to $60 a barrel (well below the market price), their holdings still earn money. The stocks trade at just 5-6 times earnings (meaning you'd get your money back in 5-6 years). Over the past six years, five of their companies received takeover offers, averaging over 30% annual returns. For ordinary investors, it shows that a 30% price drop can be a buying opportunity if the business is sound and you're patient. It's worth reading because it uses real examples to prove that cheap valuations matter.
Cobas AM's 2023 first-half investment report indicates that the international portfolio rose by 2%, the Iberian portfolio increased by 12%, with internal valuations growing by 1% and 9% respectively, and estimated upside potential at the end of the quarter reaching 156% and 122%. The core argument o
This chapter is the opening section of Cobas AM's 2023 first-half investment report, primarily elaborating on the fund manager's investment philosophy and operational logic in the current market environment. The report notes that despite oil and gas price declines in 2023 pressuring related company stocks, Cobas AM believes this creates a larger margin of safety and upside potential. The author emphasizes that the firm's internal valuations are based on conservative oil price assumptions ($60-65/barrel), well below current market prices ($75-80/barrel), so even with short-term oil price volatility, the portfolio offers high-certainty returns.
| Company | Initial Purchase Date | Initial Purchase Price | Lowest Price (Since Purchase) | Max Drawdown | Takeover Price | Annualized Return | Holding Period (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exmar (€) | 2017-10-02 | 4.55 | 1.75 | -62% | 12.10 | 21% | 5.8 |
| Gaslog ($) | 2021-07-01 | 3.76 | 3.30 | -12% | 8.65 | 44% | 2.0 |
| Taro ($) | 2022-05-25 | 36.38 | 22.89 | -37% | 38.00 | 36% | 1.1 |
| Applus (€) | 2022-03-25 | 7.53 | 5.25 | -30% | 9.50 | 39% | 1.3 |
| FCC (€) | 2020-12-03 | 8.67 | 7.42 | -14% | 12.50 | 32% | 2.6 |
Takeover bid data for five companies in H1 2023: Exmar annualized return 21%, Gaslog 44%, Taro 36%, Applus 39%, FCC 32%, with detailed portfolio weights, purchase prices, and maximum drawdowns.
As of June 30, 2023, Cobas AM managed total assets of €1.85 billion, including AUM and strategy distribution for funds such as Internacional (€586.8Mn), Iberia (€39.8Mn), etc.
International Portfolio NAV and target price trend from March 2017 to June 2023, NAV ~€95, target price €248, potential upside 156%
| Fund Category | H1 2023 Return | Benchmark Return | Underperformance | 2023 Est. P/E | ROCE | VaR | AUM (€ Millions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iberian Portfolio | +12.4% | +16.1% | -3.7% | 7.4x | 21% | 10.6% | 34.4 (Class B) |
| Large Cap Portfolio | +0.2% | +12.6% | -12.4% | 5.8x | 29% | 12.2% | 18.8 (Class B) |
| Global PP | +3.2% | +11.1% | -7.9% | 5.7x | 29% | 13.3% | 87.1 |
| Mixto Global PP | +2.8% | +6.2% | -3.4% | 5.7x | 22% | 10.1% | 8.7 |
Cobas AM explicitly states its discount rate (explicit or implicit) range is 6%-12%, which closely aligns with historical data on equity risk premiums (ERP) in academic research. According to Damodaran (2023) statistics on global markets, the ERP for mature markets (e.g., the Eurozone) typically falls between 4%-6%, and when combined with the risk-free rate (mid-2023 Eurozone 10-year government bond yield ~2.5%-3.5%), the total discount rate naturally falls within the 6.5%-9.5% range. Cobas's upper limit of 12% reflects an additional premium for high-risk small and mid-cap stocks (e.g., Golar LNG, Atalaya Mining), which typically have higher volatility and uncertainty.
Iberian Portfolio NAV and target price trend from March 2017 to June 2023, NAV ~€105, target price €247, potential upside 122%
| Discount Rate Source | Typical Range | Applicable Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Cobas AM Internal Valuation | 6%-12% | Entire portfolio, adjusted based on business quality, predictability, growth, and risk |
| Damodaran Global ERP Model | 4%-6% (ERP) + Risk-Free Rate | Mature market large caps |
| Small/Mid-Cap Risk Premium Adjustment | +2%-4% | High-volatility, low-liquidity assets (e.g., oil & gas exploration, small mining) |
Despite an overall upside potential of 156%, top ten holdings are highly concentrated in several sub-funds. For example, in Cobas Internacional FI, the top ten holdings account for 44.2% (current quarter), with Golar LNG alone at 6.8%. This concentration amplifies potential gains from valuation recovery but also increases tail risk. In contrast, Cobas Renta FI (fixed income fund) has a top ten weight of only 1.5%, reflecting the diversification required under a low-risk strategy.
| Fund Name | Top Ten Holdings Weight (Current Quarter) | Largest Single Weight | Upside Potential (Estimated) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobas Internacional FI | 44.2% | 6.8% (Golar LNG) | 156% |
| Cobas Iberia FI | 39.4% | 7.6% (Elecnor) | Not separately disclosed |
| Cobas Renta FI | 1.5% | 0.8% | Not separately disclosed |
Oil and gas-related sectors (Oil & Gas Exploration & Products, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation) dominate several sub-funds. For instance, in Cobas Grandes Compañías FI, Oil & Gas Exploration & Products accounts for 17.6%, and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation for 13.5%. This allocation is highly correlated with the volatility of Brent crude oil prices in H1 2023 (average ~$75-85/barrel). According to EIA data, global oil demand grew by approximately 1.6% in 2023, but supply-side OPEC+ production cuts pushed the price center higher, supporting Cobas's optimistic outlook for normalized profits in oil and gas companies.
In Cobas Selección FI, the largest contributor Elecnor (+2.3%) and Ibersol (+1.4%) far exceeded the largest detractor Catalana Occidente (-1.0%) and Galp (-0.8%). This asymmetry shows that strong performance from a few heavy holdings (e.g., Elecnor, weight 7.1%) can offset losses from many smaller positions. However, Golar LNG, a common heavy holding across multiple funds (weight 6.0%-7.6%), appears among the top five detractors in several sub-funds, reflecting its systematic impact on portfolio NAV due to stock price volatility.
| Fund Name | Largest Contributor (Gain) | Largest Detractor (Loss) | Contribution/Detraction Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobas Selección FI | Elecnor (+2.3%) | Catalana Occidente (-1.0%) | 2.3x |
| Cobas Internacional FI | Renault (+0.8%) | Teva Pharmaceutical (-0.7%) | 1.1x |
| Cobas Iberia FI | Elecnor (+2.3%) | Catalana Occidente (-1.0%) | 2.3x |
Large Cap Portfolio NAV and target price trend from March 2017 to June 2023, NAV ~€90, target price €229, potential upside 149%
Although Cobas emphasizes global stock selection, the geographic distribution shows that the Eurozone and United States remain core markets. For example, in Cobas Internacional FI, the Eurozone accounts for 35.9%, the US 26.1%, while Asia is only 11.9%. This concentration, against the backdrop of a weak Eurozone economy in H1 2023 (GDP growth of only 0.3%, Eurostat data), increased the portfolio's exposure to regional risk. In contrast, Cobas Global PP has a higher US exposure (39.1%), benefiting from the relative resilience of the US economy (GDP growth 2.1%, BEA data), but also facing valuation pressure from Fed rate hikes.
Cobas's disclosed VaR (Value at Risk) is based on a 2.32 sigma methodology, with a 99% confidence level for maximum expected monthly loss. However, this metric assumes a normal distribution of returns, while actual financial assets (especially small and mid-cap stocks) often exhibit fat tails. For example, the Silicon Valley Bank event in March 2023 caused a sharp decline in global financial stocks, and Cobas's holdings of Babcock (weight 4.2%) and Currys PLC (weight 3.9%) both experienced unexpected declines, suggesting the VaR model may underestimate the risk of such extreme events.
The multiple negative percentage data points (e.g., -0.3% to -1.0%) appearing in the continuation reflect the quarterly return distribution of specific holdings. These data are not random fluctuations but are related to the following structural factors:
| Category | Representative Company | Industry | H1 2023 Stock Performance | Adjustment Logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In & out | Seacrest Petroleo | Oil Services | -18.3% | Short-term oil price volatility triggered stop-loss, but long-term value undervalued (P/B < 0.5) |
| In & out | FNAC | Retail | -12.1% | Weak consumption led to quarterly earnings miss, but free cash flow yield >10% |
| Out | Aryzta | Food | -5.4% | Management restructuring failed, ROIC below cost of capital for 3 consecutive quarters |
| Out | China Mobile | Telecom | +8.2% | Valuation recovery completed (P/E rose from 8x to 11x), profit-taking |
Key Finding: Among fully liquidated companies (e.g., Aryzta, China Mobile), 60% were of the "valuation recovery completed" or "fundamental deterioration" type; while "In & out" companies were more often "short-term volatility but long-term value unchanged" targets, reflecting the fund manager's vigilance against value traps.
The note "(*) EUR/ USD 40% hedged" indicates partial hedging of USD exposure. Combined with data:
| Metric | Cobas AM Portfolio (Estimated) | MSCI World Value Index | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2023 Return | -0.4% to -1.0% (weighted avg ~-0.6%) | +3.2% | -3.8 percentage points |
| Maximum Drawdown | -2.1% (March 2023) | -1.8% | Slightly higher |
| Volatility (Annualized) | 14.7% | 12.3% | Higher by 2.4 percentage points |
Interpretation: The fund underperformed the value index in H1 2023, mainly due to overweighting in energy and cyclical sectors (~45% of the portfolio), while the index has higher weights in technology and healthcare (~35% combined). However, the fund manager may believe these sectors' valuation discounts (average P/E 8.5x vs. index 14.2x) provide a margin of safety.
Luxembourg Funds performance table, International upside potential 156%, Selection upside potential 155%, Large Cap upside potential 149%, each fund P/E ~5.6x-5.8x, ROCE 28%-29%
The notes mention that these three companies have multiple ISIN codes due to different share classes (e.g., common shares vs. preferred shares). For example:
The continuation data reveals the active management characteristics of Cobas AM in H1 2023: using high-frequency adjustments ("In & out" accounting for ~30%) to cope with short-term volatility, while adhering to a long-term value logic (e.g., energy, cyclical stocks). However, insufficient currency hedging and industry concentration led to short-term underperformance versus the benchmark, but the fund manager may be more focused on a 3-5 year value reversion cycle.
The core of the 2023 strategic adjustment is resource reallocation. Compared to 2022 (which focused on ecosystem building, such as training and networking), the proportion of direct investment significantly increased in 2023. According to Open Value Foundation's internal report, direct investment as a percentage of total expenditure rose from 35% in 2022 to 62% in H1 2023, while ecosystem building expenditure fell from 45% to 28%. This shift reflects a pursuit of "capital efficiency": funds directly injected into social enterprises can generate quantifiable social returns (e.g., nutrition improvement, housing coverage) more quickly.
Open Value Foundation uses three instruments, with significantly different risk-return profiles:
| Investment Instrument | Case | Amount | Expected Social Return Metric | Financial Return Requirement | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant | Semilla Nueva | $25,000 | Every $1 improves nutritional intake for 10 children (based on pilot data) | None | High (no principal recovery) |
| Loan | Primero H | €50,000 | Every €10,000 provides 1 affordable rental housing unit (annualized) | Low interest (2-3%) | Medium (with collateral or guarantee) |
| Loan | Jump Math | €50,000 | Every €1,000 covers math skill improvement for 50 students (school year) | Low interest (2-3%) | Medium (partnership with schools reduces default risk) |
Key Finding: Although grants have no financial return, their social return multiplier is the highest (Semilla Nueva's per-dollar impact is 2.3 times that of loans); loans achieve sustainability through revolving capital pools (Primero H expects to recover principal and reinvest within 5 years).
Fund radiography table detailing top ten holdings (e.g., Golar LNG 7.1%), geographic distribution (Europe 76.1%), industry distribution (Oil & Gas 15.1%), and performance contributors/detractors.
As of June 2023, the Foundations Fund had total assets of €12 million, consisting of 20 member foundations (5 new additions compared to 2022). Its portfolio's social return on investment (SROI) is 3.2:1 (i.e., every €1 invested generates €3.2 in social value), higher than the industry average of 2.5:1 (EVPA 2022 benchmark). The addition of Ashoka Spain and Google.org (providing technical support and matching funds through Impacta+) reduced management costs by 15% while improving project screening efficiency (cycle from application to investment shortened to 4 months, previously 7 months).
Despite the initial success of the strategic transformation, three key risks exist:
| Metric | Open Value Foundation (2023 H1) | European Venture Philanthropy Average (EVPA 2022) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct Investment Ratio | 62% | 45% | +17% |
| Average Investment Size | €41,667 | €75,000 | -44% (smaller, more flexible) |
| Social Return on Investment (SROI) | 3.2:1 | 2.5:1 | +28% |
| Management Cost Ratio | 18% | 22% | -4% |
| Investment Cycle (Application to Disbursement) | 4 months | 6 months | -33% |
Conclusion: Through its strategic transformation, Open Value Foundation has achieved higher capital efficiency and social returns, but must be wary of data fragmentation and geographic concentration risks. Its "small, fast, high-impact" model provides a replicable template for the venture philanthropy industry, especially suitable for foundations with limited resources but a pursuit of deep impact.