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Cobas Asset ManagementQuarterly28 Apr 2017Source: cobasam.com

Comments on First Quarter 2017

Cobas Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value firm founded in late 2016 by Francisco García Paramés, Europe's standard-bearer of value investing after 25+ years running Bestinver and author of "Investing for the Long Term". Cobas applies a strict Graham/Buffett value framework overlaid with Austrian business-cycle theory, concentrating in unloved energy, shipping and other cyclicals, with AUM above €3.4bn. Its investor letters are fully archived from Q1 2017, moving to a semi-annual cadence in 2022.

Francisco García Paramés · 2016 · 西班牙马德里Deep value / Austrian school

In plain words

This report explains how the Cobas fund built its portfolio in early 2017. The manager bought stocks that had fallen over 50% in three years (like BMW preferred shares and Samsung preferred shares), while the market rose 19%. He believes these companies are undervalued and could rebound 70%. For everyday investors, it shows that when the market is high, you can find bargains in beaten-down stocks—especially those with lots of cash and family ownership, which are safer. It's worth reading for a clear example of contrarian investing.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

The Cobas Selección Fund’s first-quarter 2017 report shows that 92.7% of the fund is invested in 53 stocks, of which 8 Iberian stocks account for 5.7%. The core thesis focuses on high-quality, undervalued companies, with the top ten holdings representing 46% of the portfolio. Portfolio characteristi

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter is the opening of the Cobas Selección Fund's first-quarter 2017 report, introducing the portfolio structure, geographic distribution, and core characteristics after the fund completed its position-building. The author emphasizes that the fund gradually built its positions in January 2017, forming the target portfolio by the end of the quarter, focusing on high-quality, undervalued stocks.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is that the top five holdings in the current portfolio have depreciated by over 50% in the past three years, while the market rose 19% over the same period. The market's pricing of these companies is excessively pessimistic, presenting significant buying opportunities. The author believes that the fundamental value of these companies has not declined proportionally, so the portfolio has a 70% revaluation potential. This judgment runs counter to market consensus, as the author actively bought sharply declining stocks when major markets were at historical highs.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Increased Portfolio Concentration: The number of stocks decreased from 62 to 53, with the top ten holdings accounting for 46%, indicating the author's increased confidence in core positions.
  • Valuation and Quality Metrics: The portfolio's overall ROCE is 30%, PER is 8.4x, and revaluation potential reaches 70%. The author argues that over the past five years (excluding commodity stocks in 2015), it has been difficult to find such a combination of high quality and low valuation.
  • Defensive Characteristics: 38% of companies hold net cash, and 20% have cash positions equivalent to 50% of their market capitalization; 80% are family or single-shareholder enterprises, reducing agency risk.
  • Price vs. Value Divergence: Comparative data is as follows:
Metric Performance Over the Past Three Years
Top five portfolio holdings Depreciated over 50% (some fell 80%)
Author's classic stock portfolio Accumulated rise of 50%
Market (reference index) Rose 19%

The author believes that the market overreacts to price changes, with valuation declines far smaller than stock price drops.

Companies/Assets Involved

The report categorizes portfolio companies into three groups:

  • Known Companies (long-term tracked by the author): BMW Pref, Hyundai Pref, Samsung Pref, Dassault Aviation, Cir/Cofide, Danieli, Next, Sol, Tesco, Casino, Ralph Lauren, Exor, LG Household Pref, Amore Pacific Group Pref; the Iberian segment includes Corporación Alba, Semapa, Nos, EDP, Elecnor, Navigator, Sonae, Viscofán.
  • Commodity Companies: ICL, Teekay Corp, TNK, Phosagro, Polymetal, Randgold, Euronav, DHT, TIL, BW Offshore, SLC Agricola.
  • New Companies (recently added): Aryzta, TGP, GS Home Shopping, Hyundai Home Shopping, Dynagas, Gaslog, Pico Far East, Daiwa Industries, Fukushima Industries, Babcock International, Beni Stabili, Bolloré, EVN, G III, Howden Joinery, Iliad, Maire Technimont, OVS, Schaeffler, Travis Perkins.

The author is broadly bullish on the above companies, expecting "very significant revaluation."

Investment Implications

  • Contrarian Positioning Opportunities: Investors should focus on companies whose stock prices have fallen sharply due to short-term negative sentiment but whose fundamentals have not deteriorated correspondingly, especially when the overall market is at highs. Such stocks may offer excess returns.
  • Quality First: The portfolio's high ROCE (30%) and low PER (8.4x) indicate the author's preference for targets with strong profitability that are undervalued by the market. Investors can adopt this screening criterion.
  • Cash and Governance Structure: A large number of companies hold net cash or are family-controlled, reducing financial risk and agency costs, which is a key source of the portfolio's defensiveness. When evaluating similar opportunities, investors should prioritize such characteristics.