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azvalor Asset ManagementArticle26 Apr 2021Source: azvalor.com

Quarterly letter 1Q2021

azvalor Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value boutique founded in 2015 by Álvaro Guzmán de Lázaro and Fernando Bernad, formerly the core of Bestinver's investment team in the Graham tradition. It is known for contrarian concentration in unloved cyclical assets — gold and silver miners, oil services, uranium — buying into panic and exiting once value is realized. Its flagship international fund is about 70% of firm AUM and has more than tripled since inception a decade ago; letters were quarterly from 2016-2022 and semiannual since 2023.

Álvaro Guzmán de Lázaro、Fernando Bernad · 2015 · 西班牙马德里Deep value / Cyclical contrarian

In plain words

This report from investment firm Azvalor reviews their first quarter of 2021. After a tough 2020, their funds rebounded strongly—up 113% in one case—but they believe stocks are still cheap and will keep outperforming. They recently bought companies like Grifols (a plasma drug leader), Arch Resources (a coal miner), and several gold miners, all at low prices. They sold stocks that had risen too much, like steelmaker Arcelor Mittal and hotel chain Meliá. The key takeaway for regular investors: buying undervalued assets during market panic and holding patiently can pay off. Worth reading for a clear example of 'buy low, sell high' in action.

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In its first-quarter 2021 investor report, Azvalor noted that despite the impact of the pandemic, the company successfully held its sixth annual investor conference online. The core view is that the companies in the current portfolio are of solid quality, capable of withstanding market volatility, a

~5 min full read · 10 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter is the opening section of Azvalor’s first-quarter 2021 investor letter. It primarily reviews the sixth annual investor conference and provides an overview of the fund portfolio’s overall performance and investment confidence after weathering the “perfect storm” of 2020. The report emphasizes that, despite the pandemic forcing the conference online, the team remains committed to maintaining high transparency and accountability to investors.

Core Views

The author’s core investment thesis is that the companies in the current portfolio are of solid quality, having proven their ability to withstand extreme market conditions and demonstrating strong return potential after the severe test of 2020. The report argues that, based on the current highly attractive valuation levels (relative to the broader equity index), fund returns will continue to outperform the market in the coming years, consistent with the author’s historical investment experience.

Counter-intuitive/Contrarian Judgments:

  • Although the fund has rebounded significantly from its 2020 lows (e.g., Azvalor Managers up 113%), the author believes these assets remain undervalued, with substantial upside still ahead.
  • While the market focuses on short-term volatility, the author emphasizes deploying capital at extremely low valuations through a rotation strategy of “selling expensive, buying cheap” to achieve long-term excess returns.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Fund Performance: In the first quarter of 2021, the International, Iberian, Blue Chips, and Azvalor Managers funds rose 16%, 13%, 18%, and 24%, respectively, marking four consecutive quarters of significant growth.
  • Valuation Comparison: Current valuation levels are highly attractive relative to the broader equity index, which the author sees as the starting point for outperforming the market in the coming years.
  • Capital Inflows: The funds received net subscriptions in the first quarter (including the Luxembourg SICAV), and this trend continued into April, indicating growing investor confidence.
  • Team Expansion: Plans to add two new employees this quarter, with a potential third by year-end, all based in the London office to strengthen analytical capabilities.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company/Asset Role and Key Data Bullish/Bearish
Grifols (Preferred Shares) Added to the Iberian portfolio; purchase price at 11x estimated normalized earnings for 2022; family-owned, global leader in plasma-derived medicines Bullish (valuation highly attractive, high industry barriers)
Arch Resources Added to the International portfolio; purchase price corresponds to $133 per ton of metallurgical coal; the author estimates the industry needs $150/ton to achieve a 10% after-tax return Bullish (believes stock value exceeds purchase price by more than double)
Gold Fields Re-purchased at a price one-third lower than the selling price a few months ago Bullish (recent decline in gold mining stocks offers opportunity)
Kinross Gold New purchase; based on spot gold prices, free cash flow yield reaches 14% Bullish (tracked for over 7 years, price highly attractive)
Endeavour Mining New purchase; based on spot gold prices, valuation below 10x estimated profits Bullish
Arcelor Mittal, Acerinox, Bankinter, Indra All sold, as potential returns diminished after significant share price increases Bearish (profit-taking)
Golar LNG, Meliá All sold; Meliá sold at €7/share, up over 130% from the purchase price of €3/share Bearish (potential returns lower than other alternatives)
Uranium Royalty, Serco, Valaris, Diamond Offshore All sold, with positions each below 20 basis points Bearish (small positions, rotated out)
International Seaways, Cabot Oil & Gas, Borr Drilling, Petrofac Target prices lowered, but still high upside potential Maintain bullish (valuations remain attractive)

Investment Implications

  • Specific Direction for Investors: The current period is a good time to increase or maintain positions, especially in assets that have rebounded significantly from 2020 lows but still trade below intrinsic value. The author recommends focusing on deep value opportunities in cyclical sectors such as metallurgical coal and gold mining, and using market volatility to rotate (selling stocks that have risen too much and buying undervalued assets).
  • Risk Warning: Although the author is optimistic about returns in the coming years, note that gold mining stocks have continued to face pressure recently, and the return projections for some companies (e.g., Arch Resources) depend on assumptions about industry capital intensity. If actual prices fall short of expectations, returns may underperform.

Theme and Background

This section serves as the concluding part of Azvalor’s first-quarter investor letter, primarily expressing gratitude to investors and reaffirming the availability of the investor relations team. Additionally, the report includes a footnote to clarify the calculation methodology for the portfolio’s upside potential.

Core Viewpoint

This section contains no core investment thesis; it is merely a courteous closing and an explanation of the valuation methodology.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Calculation method for upside potential: the difference between the estimated value of each underlying asset derived from the internal valuation model and the current trading price in the stock market.

Companies/Assets Involved

No specific companies or assets are mentioned.

Investment Implications

This section offers no investment implications. Investors may skip this part and focus on substantive content in the earlier sections of the report, such as portfolio performance, new holdings, and valuation analysis.