Top 10 Themes for 2026

Theme and Background

This chapter focuses on how two structural forces—deglobalization and fiscal dominance—are reshaping the commodity markets in 2026 and beyond. The report argues that the old global order is unraveling, as countries shift from prioritizing efficiency to prioritizing sovereignty and resilience, triggering a systemic reorganization of trade, finance, and resource allocation.

Core Views

• Deglobalization is a structural shift, not a cyclical fluctuation, which will persistently drive inflationary pressures, geopolitical risk premiums, and a reassessment of assets tied to sovereignty, security, and resource control (e.g., precious metals and critical minerals).
• Fiscal dominance has become a structural regime: government spending dictates monetary policy, and central banks are forced to prioritize debt sustainability over inflation control, reinforcing the "currency debasement trade" (a shift from fiat currencies to hard assets).
• The global metals inventory system is fragmenting, as the traditional balancing mechanism based on open trade and arbitrage is rendered ineffective by tariffs and resource nationalism.

Key Arguments and Data

1. Accelerating Deglobalization: Countries are dismantling global integration through tariffs, export controls, and capital restrictions, prioritizing domestic production of semiconductors, critical minerals, and energy. This creates persistent inflationary pressures and strengthens the demand for strategic resource control.

2. Feedback Loop of Fiscal Dominance: Each interest rate hike amplifies the government's debt servicing burden, incentivizing central banks to maintain low rates and inject liquidity even when inflation remains above target. By the end of 2025, U.S. Treasury issuance strategy heavily favored short-term bills, and the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening while resuming balance sheet expansion, interpreted as a form of soft yield curve control.

3. U.S. Debt Data: U.S. public debt exceeded $38 trillion in 2025, double the level from a decade ago. Since the early 2000s, few major economies have achieved fiscal surpluses.

4. 2026 Outlook: The Federal Reserve is expected to resume rate cuts after a new chair takes office mid-year; the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) will introduce a new round of fiscal stimulus; tariff uncertainty maintains an inflationary bias. The report argues the currency debasement trade will accelerate.

5. Fragmentation of Inventory Systems: Historically, metals flowed freely through transparent exchanges like the LME and CME to regions with the highest demand. This mechanism is now broken due to geopolitical tensions and tariff barriers.

Companies/Assets Involved

• Gold: The report argues that gold is re-establishing its role as a truly neutral reserve asset, a core beneficiary of deglobalization and de-dollarization. Gold outperformed other asset classes in 2025 (see Figure 1).
• Silver: Also performed well in 2025, listed as a critical mineral, benefiting from industrial demand driven by AI infrastructure and defense spending.
• Uranium, Copper, Rare Earths: Explicitly classified as critical minerals and geopolitical tools. Uranium's bull market strengthens in 2026; copper faces supply shocks and trade mismatches; rare earth supply chain reconstruction accelerates.
• Mining Stocks and Commodity ETFs: The report believes these assets will benefit from structural tailwinds due to increased demand for these metals and minerals from defense, technology, and energy sectors.
• Fossil Fuels: Still relevant but face the risk of "peak trade" due to declining trade flows.

Investment Implications

• Increase Allocation to Hard Assets: Against the backdrop of fiscal dominance and currency debasement, investors should systematically shift from fiat currency assets to gold, other precious metals, and select commodities.
• Focus on Inflation Hedges: Precious metals, commodities, real estate, and inflation-linked bonds should be included in portfolios to hedge against structural inflation driven by deglobalization.
• Position in Critical Mineral Supply Chains: Minerals tied to national security and the energy transition, such as uranium, copper, and rare earths, will see their strategic value continue to rise. Related mining companies and ETFs offer long-term allocation value.
• Beware of Traditional Inventory System Failures: Fragmentation in metals trade may lead to wider regional price spreads and the disappearance of arbitrage opportunities. Investors need to reassess pricing models based on a globally unified market.

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Theme and Background

This chapter explores how resource nationalism and deglobalization are reshaping global metals markets, along with the convergence of "hard asset trades" and "currency debasement trades." The report argues that the weaponization of trade, tariff barriers, and the nationalization of critical minerals are breaking down traditional global price convergence mechanisms, leading to regional supply shortages and price dislocations.

Core Thesis

The author's central judgment is that the global metals inventory system is undergoing structural fragmentation, with geopolitical risks—rather than purely fundamental factors—increasingly becoming the primary driver of prices. The counterintuitive insight is that even without a demand shock, logistical frictions and inventory hoarding can create a persistent scarcity cycle, thereby supporting metal prices. Furthermore, the traditional 60/40 portfolio model has become obsolete, and hard assets are emerging as necessary tools to hedge against fiscal and monetary credibility risks.

Key Arguments and Data

1. Trade Fragmentation and Price Dislocations:

• The report notes that the copper price spread between CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and LME (London Metal Exchange) reached 30% in 2025, indicating severe frictions in transportation and delivery eligibility.
• Prices for metals such as platinum, palladium, nickel, and cobalt now incorporate geopolitical risk premiums.
• Silver, classified as a critical mineral, faces liquidity challenges as ETF flows are draining free float from the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association).

2. Macro Drivers of the Hard Asset Trade:

• Fiscal Dominance and Currency Debasement: Persistent fiscal deficits, monetization operations, and liquidity injections are eroding the purchasing power of fiat currencies. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 to 75 basis points in 2026, despite stubborn inflation.
• AI-Driven Capital Expenditure: Massive investments in data centers, electrification, and infrastructure are creating multi-decade structural demand for copper, aluminum, silver, platinum group metals, and energy.
• Supply-Side Constraints: Critical minerals like copper and silver face years of structural deficits due to chronic underinvestment in mining, geopolitical bottlenecks, and tariff policy volatility.

3. The "Running Hot" Policy Playbook:

• The US, EU, and Japan are all committed to "running hot" economies, prioritizing rapid growth over inflation control.
• United States: Implementing massive tax cuts, deregulation, and growth incentives through the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."
• Japan: Under a new prime minister, reviving a framework akin to "Abenomics," combining aggressive fiscal spending with ultra-loose monetary policy.
• EU: Shifting toward industrial policy, increased military spending, and green investments, while relaxing fiscal rules.

Companies/Assets Covered

This chapter does not mention specific companies but focuses on the following asset classes:

• Gold: Supported by central bank purchases, concerns over Fed independence, and global currency debasement. The report cites World Gold Council data showing a significant increase in central bank gold demand over the past four years.
• Silver: In a structural deficit, boosted by industrial demand from solar, AI infrastructure, and electric vehicles, as well as monetary interest following a short squeeze in 2025.
• Copper: Consumption is expected to outpace mining capacity as AI infrastructure and grid upgrades accelerate.
• Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), Cobalt, Tin, Zinc: Facing Section 232 investigations, which could further tighten inventories.
• Uranium, Battery Metals: Driven by the energy transition and decarbonization, holding strategic and national security value.

Investment Implications

• Long Hard Assets: Investors should increase allocations to gold, silver, and critical minerals (e.g., copper, uranium) as hedges against currency debasement, fiscal credibility risks, and geopolitical fragmentation.
• Monitor Regional Spreads: Due to the fragmentation of global inventory systems, investors should watch spreads between different exchanges (e.g., CME vs. LME), which may create arbitrage opportunities but also signal higher volatility.
• Beware of Liquidity Risks: In markets like silver, ETF inflows are draining free float, potentially leading to liquidity crises and sharp price swings.
• Abandon Traditional Models: The report argues that the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio model is obsolete, as bonds fail to provide reliable safe-haven functions in an inflationary environment. Investors should shift toward diversified allocations that include commodities.

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Theme and Background

This chapter focuses on the structural shift in the global macro policy environment in 2026: the Federal Reserve has entered a highly accommodative interest rate range and introduced "Quantitative Easing Lite" (QE-lite), combined with a global pivot by central banks toward a "growth-first" strategy. Against this backdrop, the report analyzes the strengthening logic of gold as a core store of value, as well as the dual-driver bull case for silver, which combines monetary hedging with industrial metal attributes.

Core Views

• Gold: Despite charts showing overbought conditions, gold remains "underweighted" in investor portfolios. Price risks in 2026 are skewed to the upside, particularly as a liquidity wave or geopolitical shock could trigger a new rally. Fiscal dominance and the debasement trade are the core drivers.
• Silver: With a 148% gain in 2025, silver has far outpaced gold. Its uniqueness lies in the "dual engine" of monetary hedging and industrial demand (solar, AI infrastructure). Free-float inventories have been depleted, supply is inelastic (80% is a byproduct), and structural deficits will persist into 2026 and beyond.
• Counterintuitive Judgment: The market may believe gold has "run too far," but the report emphasizes the paradox of "overbought but underweighted"—institutional investors' allocation to gold remains well below historical equilibrium levels, implying significant potential buying power.

Key Arguments and Data

1. Monetary Policy Environment:

• The Fed has cut rates to or below estimated neutral levels, with the NY Fed's DSGE model indicating "highly accommodative" policy rates.
• The Fed has launched "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP), buying $40 billion in short-term Treasuries per month to lower term premiums and maintain liquidity. Though far smaller than pandemic-era QE, it marks an institutionalized commitment to liquidity support.
• Fiscal dominance combined with monetary easing creates a "reflation impulse" for 2026.

2. Gold's Drivers:

• Structural Shift: The 2022 freeze of Russian foreign reserves shattered the assumption of "reserve neutrality," restoring gold's strategic status as a non-sovereign, liability-free asset.
• China's Strategy: From 2023 to 2024, China became the largest buyer, employing a dual strategy of "accumulating gold while allowing the yuan to depreciate against gold," effectively diluting domestic debt.
• 2025 Turning Point: Deepening trade wars and financial system fragmentation led to broad recognition of gold as the "ultimate neutral reserve asset." In the final four months, gold surged on liquidity injections and monetary inflation.
• 2026 Outlook: Central bank de-dollarization continues (accelerated buying by emerging markets), investors rotate from long-duration bonds to real assets, and ETF and physical holdings are expected to remain strong.

3. Silver's Unique Logic:

• Price Performance: In 2025, silver rose from around $30 to $71.66, a gain of 148%.
• Three Drivers: ① Monetary easing drives monetary inflation; ② Industrial demand surges (solar, EVs); ③ Supply shortages (global scramble for physical metal, delivery premiums).
• Supply Constraints: Over 80% of silver is a byproduct of base metals like copper, lead, and zinc. New projects face permitting delays and declining grades, and recycling is insufficient to close the gap.
• Inventory Depletion: Free-float inventories have been exhausted. The high correlation with gold persists, but as gold is being revalued by central banks, silver will benefit in tandem.

4. Long-Term Return Comparison (1999–2025):

Asset Class	Annualized Return
Gold	Data not listed in the original text (chart only mentions "strong results")
Silver	Data not listed in the original text
S&P 500 Total Return	Data not listed in the original text
US Aggregate Bond Index	Data not listed in the original text
US Dollar Index	Data not listed in the original text

Note: The original text only provides chart titles, without specific values.

Companies/Assets Involved

• Gold: Bullish as a core asset. The report emphasizes its strategic value as a "non-sovereign, liability-free" reserve asset, with central bank purchases and investor allocations as primary buying forces.
• Silver: Strongly bullish as a dynamic asset. The report argues that its monetary hedging attributes resonate with industrial metal properties (solar, AI infrastructure), with supply shortages as the core support.
• US Dollar: Bearish. The report notes that Fed easing and structural deficits will weaken the dollar, providing an additional tailwind for silver.
• US Treasuries: Bearish. The report argues that long-duration bonds lose their hedging effectiveness in an environment of fiscal dominance and currency debasement, with capital flowing to real assets.

Investment Implications

• Gold: Should be overweighted now. While short-term pullbacks are possible, structural drivers (central bank buying, de-dollarization, currency debasement) remain intact. Risks in 2026 are skewed to the upside, particularly focusing on a new rally triggered by liquidity injections or geopolitical events.
• Silver: Should be allocated as a "dual-logic" asset. Industrial demand (AI, solar) combined with monetary hedging, with supply shortages amplifying price elasticity. However, note volatility and recommend building positions gradually on pullbacks.
• Strategic Avoidance: Reduce exposure to long-duration bonds and the US dollar, rotating into real assets, inflation-linked instruments, and commodities. Policy-driven liquidity will be the primary driver of asset prices in 2026.

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Theme and Background

This chapter focuses on the investment outlook for four key commodities—silver, uranium, copper, and rare earths—in 2026. The report argues that against the macroeconomic backdrop of deglobalization, fiscal dominance, and AI-driven technological change, these commodities are experiencing structural supply-demand imbalances, with their strategic value being repriced.

Core Thesis

The author’s central judgment is that uranium, copper, and rare earths are in a strengthening phase of a structural bull market, while silver, with its dual monetary and industrial attributes, carries long-term upside risk. The counterintuitive point is that despite uranium’s spot price gain (11.43%) being far lower than that of uranium miners (41.95%), the author believes the bull market foundation for uranium is solidifying, not nearing its end; for copper, after hitting record highs, supply shocks and trade mismatches will further intensify its scarcity rather than alleviate it.

Key Arguments and Data

1. Uranium: Policy Clarity and AI-Driven Demand Resonance

• Price Performance: In 2025, spot uranium rose 11.43%, uranium miners rose 41.95%, and junior uranium miners rose 47.49%. Forward prices broke through months of stagnation to reach $86/lb.
• Policy Support: The U.S. has, for the first time, provided up to $80 billion in financing support for building new reactors. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta have made multi-year, multi-billion-dollar commitments to secure nuclear power for AI and data centers.
• Supply-Demand Gap: The annual replacement procurement rate for uranium is approximately 150 million pounds, but contract procurement in 2025 has fallen below that level for the 13th consecutive year. Delayed procurement does not disappear but accumulates as future demand.
• Supply Constraints: Major producers have no intention of expanding output until higher prices emerge, and greenfield project delivery is slow.

2. Copper: Strategic Bottleneck Under Supply Shock and Trade Distortion

• Price Performance: In 2025, spot copper rose 43.93%, copper miners rose 74.59%, and junior copper miners rose 132.42%. By January 2026, copper prices had broken through $13,000/ton, hitting a record high.
• Supply Shock: The shutdowns of the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula copper mines are a market turning point. Copper treatment charges have fallen to extremely low levels, reflecting supply chain tightness.
• Demand Transition: Shifting from traditional construction and consumer goods to energy infrastructure, advanced technology, and defense. It takes an average of 17 years from discovery to production for a new mine, making deficits difficult to resolve quickly.

3. Rare Earths: Accelerating Supply Chain Reconstruction

• Core Vulnerability: China dominates global rare earth production as well as downstream smelting and permanent magnet manufacturing capacity. In 2025, the U.S. and other governments have moved from "expressing concern" to "actively shaping outcomes," including streamlining approvals, expanding financing, direct public investment, and protective measures.

Comparative Data Table

Asset Class	2025 Price/Return Performance	Key Drivers	2026 Outlook
Uranium	Spot +11.43%; Miners +41.95%; Junior Miners +47.49%	Policy clarity, AI nuclear demand, supply concentration, contract procurement below replacement rate	Bull market foundation strengthening, forward prices likely to continue rising
Copper	Spot +43.93%; Miners +74.59%; Junior Miners +132.42%	Mine shutdowns, trade distortion, demand shift to energy/defense, 17-year development cycle	Supply bottlenecks intensifying, prices likely to remain elevated
Silver	Outperformed other assets in 2025 (as mentioned earlier)	Liquidity, geopolitical shocks, inventory depletion, AI industrial demand	Long-term upside risk, combining inflation hedge and AI beneficiary attributes
Rare Earths	No specific return data provided	China’s dominance, U.S. policy intervention, AI/defense demand	Supply chain reconstruction accelerating, strategic value highlighted

Companies/Assets Involved

• Uranium: References uranium miners and junior uranium miners, with the author bullish. Key data: In 2025, uranium miners rose 41.95%, junior uranium miners rose 47.49%.
• Copper: References copper miners and junior copper miners, with the author bullish. Key data: In 2025, copper miners rose 74.59%, junior copper miners rose 132.42%.
• Silver: No specific companies named, but the author is bullish on its long-term outlook.
• Rare Earths: No specific companies named, but the author believes supply chain reconstruction will benefit related enterprises.

Investment Implications

1. Uranium: Investors should focus on uranium mining stocks (especially junior uranium miners) rather than holding spot uranium alone. The cumulative gap in contract procurement and AI-driven nuclear demand are core catalysts. The forward price breaking through $86/lb is a key signal.

2. Copper: The resilience of copper mining stocks (especially junior miners) may continue to outperform copper prices themselves. Supply shocks and trade distortions creating a "non-U.S. market copper shortage" represent a structural opportunity. Monitor extremely low treatment charges (TC/RC) as a sign of tightness.

3. Rare Earths: Under the supply chain reconstruction theme, focus on U.S. and Western rare earth miners and permanent magnet manufacturers. Policy support (financing, approvals, protective measures) serves as a short-term catalyst.

4. Silver: As a direct beneficiary of AI industrial demand (electronics, photovoltaics) and an inflation hedge, silver performs strongly during periods of loose liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk.

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Theme & Background

This chapter focuses on the shifting status of rare earths as a national strategic resource. The report notes that in 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) directly intervened in the rare earth supply chain through equity investments and price floor mechanisms, marking a transition from reliance on venture capital to deep public sector involvement. Entering 2026, supply security has become a more explicit driver of policy and capital allocation, with uncertainties in U.S.-China relations further reinforcing the strategic value of non-Chinese rare earth companies.

Core Thesis

The report’s central judgment is that the rare earth industry is no longer solely driven by market prices; supply security has become a national priority on par with price. The counterintuitive point is that the U.S. DoD supports domestic production with a NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) price floor above market levels, indicating that policymakers are willing to pay a premium for supply chain resilience rather than simply pursuing the lowest cost. The report argues that any further deterioration in U.S.-China relations or tightening of trade policies will accelerate the tilt of capital and policy toward non-Chinese rare earth companies.

Key Arguments & Data

• Landmark Event in 2025: The U.S. DoD made an equity investment in a leading U.S. rare earth producer, set a NdPr minimum price floor well above market levels, and committed to purchasing 100% of the output from a new magnet manufacturing facility.
• Policy Logic: Public sector participation enhances revenue visibility, reduces project risk, and significantly increases the likelihood of new production capacity coming online.
• 2026 Outlook: The growing unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy paradoxically reinforces the urgency of securing critical mineral supply chains. Any worsening of U.S.-China relations or tightening of export controls will immediately refocus the market on the strategic dependency risks of rare earths.
• 2025 Key Asset Performance Comparison (Data as of December 31, 2025):

Indicator	2025 Closing Price	2024 Closing Price	Annual Change	Annual Gain
Gold Spot Price (USD/oz)	4,319.37	2,624.50	+1,694.87	+64.58%
Silver Spot Price (USD/oz)	71.66	28.90	+42.76	+147.95%
Uranium Spot Price (USD/lb)	81.55	73.00	+8.55	+11.71%
LME Copper Spot Price (USD/lb)	5.65	3.92	+1.72	+43.93%
Lithium Carbonate Spot Price (USD/lb)	7.72	4.69	+3.03	+64.64%
LME Nickel Spot Price (USD/lb)	7.48	6.85	+0.63	+9.20%
Nasdaq Sprott Critical Materials™ Index	1,645.04	849.53	+795.51	+93.64%
S&P 500 Index	6,845.50	5,881.63	+963.87	+16.39%
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)	98.32	108.49	-10.17	-9.37%
Bloomberg Commodity Index	109.69	98.76	+10.93	+11.07%

Key Observation: The Critical Materials Index surged 93.64% in 2025, far exceeding the S&P 500’s 16.39% and the commodity index’s 11.07%, while a 9.37% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index further strengthened the appeal of USD-denominated commodities.

Companies/Assets Involved

The report does not name specific companies but clearly points to non-Chinese rare earth miners and magnet manufacturers. The core logic is that these companies will benefit from policies prioritizing resilient supply chains across nations. Asset classes mentioned include:

• Rare Earth Miners (Rare Earths miners outside of China): Bullish, benefiting from policy support and capital inflows.
• Magnet Manufacturers (U.S. magnet manufacturing capacity): Bullish, with the DoD committing to 100% procurement from new plant output, providing extremely high demand certainty.
• Critical Materials Index (Nasdaq Sprott Critical Materials™ Index): As an industry benchmark, it gained 93.64% in 2025, reflecting the overall strength of the sector.

Investment Implications

• Go Long on Non-Chinese Rare Earth Supply Chains: Investors should prioritize non-Chinese rare earth miners and magnet companies, particularly those in the U.S. and Australia that have secured government contracts or price support.
• Watch for Policy Catalysts: Any deterioration in U.S.-China relations (e.g., upgraded export controls) serves as a short-term catalyst for the rare earth sector, allowing for early positioning.
• Beware of Valuation Risks: The Critical Materials Index has nearly doubled in 2025, but the report argues that policy support (price floors, procurement commitments) provides revenue visibility that may justify higher valuations. Actual production capacity progress should be tracked.
• Hedge Against Dollar Depreciation: With the U.S. Dollar Index falling 9.37% in 2025, USD-denominated commodities like rare earths benefit. Consider allocating to physical assets or mining stocks as a dollar alternative.