Perspectives on Progress #19

1. Moderna’s mRNA Platform Is the True Value

Moderna’s cancer treatment breakthrough validates its mRNA platform, not just its COVID-19 vaccine. On August 19, 2026, the Phase 3 trial of Intismeran, a personalized cancer therapy developed by Moderna in collaboration with Merck and used in combination with Keytruda, yielded positive results, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements. The author emphasizes: “This is not a typical drug. Moderna’s product is a process, not a molecule.” The platform maps patient DNA and tumor DNA, designs and packages customized instructions to guide the patient’s cells in killing cancer cells. CEO Stéphane Bancel aims for a 2027 launch, with the UK factory designed for an annual production capacity exceeding 35,000 doses of personalized vaccines, far surpassing competitors. Moderna has returned to the trust’s top ten holdings, and the mRNA platform is expected to be a core driver of future success.

2. Power Bottleneck Spurs New Holdings: EQT and Vistra

The new bottleneck for AI development is electricity supply; new purchases of EQT and Vistra benefit from fuel supply and power generation, respectively. The article notes that AI development is increasingly constrained by physical infrastructure, with electricity supply emerging as the new bottleneck. EQT is one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S., with extremely low production costs and decades of reserves in the Appalachian region. As coal-fired power plants retire and nuclear power remains years away, natural gas-fired generation remains the most scalable and responsive power source in the near term. EQT’s pipeline infrastructure allows it to profit from price increases, while its cost advantage and balance sheet provide resilience. Vistra owns natural gas and nuclear facilities in favorable locations on the U.S. power grid, supplying electricity to customers including AI data centers that require fast and reliable power. Management has a track record of counter-cyclical capital allocation, acquiring these assets at below replacement cost. Both capture the same investment theme from complementary angles: EQT through fuel supply, and Vistra through power generation.

3. Nubank Founder Joins OpenAI Board, AI Strategy Pursues a Dual Track

Nubank’s AI strategy upgrades from a “bank in your pocket” to a “banker in your pocket,” and the founder’s appointment to the OpenAI board may accelerate this process. Nubank founder David Vélez has been appointed to the boards of the OpenAI Foundation and OpenAI Group. Vélez states: “Technology can be a powerful force for expanding access and opportunity when it is built around people’s needs and grounded in trust.” Nubank’s AI strategy has two parts: on the customer side, shifting from a “bank in your pocket” to a “banker in your pocket,” offering personalized recommendations, smarter credit, and cross-selling; on the operational side, improving efficiency in collections, fraud prevention, and engineering to reduce operating costs. This ambitious strategy may benefit from the new association with OpenAI.

4. Hadrian: AI in the Physical World

Hadrian addresses the U.S. precision manufacturing labor shortage with software-driven automated factories, valued at $7.9 billion. The skilled workforce in U.S. precision manufacturing has declined from 3 million in the 1980s to 1.1 million today, with an average age of over 60. Hadrian uses highly automated, software-driven factories to manufacture precision parts and assemble complex components (including submarines) for U.S. defense customers. Its operating system, Opus, integrates planning, design, machining, inspection, and scheduling, leveraging AI and robotics to reduce the need for manual expertise. The business has expanded from manufacturing precision parts to “Manufacturing as a Service” (installing machining or inspection cells) and “Factory as a Service” (providing the full-stack capabilities needed for a complete production facility). The trust led the Series D round in July at a $7.9 billion valuation, establishing a position.

5. Exited Delivery Hero: Competitive Landscape Affects Long-Term Economics

Despite Delivery Hero’s progress in profitability and cash flow, intense competition led to a decision to reallocate capital. The trust invested in Delivery Hero in 2017, and the company has built strong positions in multiple markets while expanding beyond restaurant delivery. Management has recently made clear progress in profitability and cash generation. However, online food delivery remains a highly competitive industry, and recent developments continue to highlight how competition and market structure affect long-term economics. The author believes that other opportunities in the portfolio offer more durable competitive advantages and clearer long-term profit potential, leading to the decision to sell Delivery Hero and reallocate capital.

Position Moves