Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
In his October 23, 2026 report, Paul Harris focuses on Arizona copper projects and calls the mainstream narrative of a copper supply gap a 'fantasy.' Hudbay Minerals and Mitsubishi have made a final investment decision on the Copper World project, targeting first production in the second half of 2029 with an initial 10-year annual output of 102,000 tonnes, a C1 cash cost of $1.65/lb, and initial capex of $2 billion. Harris argues that the widely forecast 2035-2040 supply gap of about 10 million tonnes per year is a 'fantasy,' as unmet demand dissipates through price mechanisms rather than accumulating. He also notes that copper recycling and theft will increase as prices rise.
In his latest report, Paul Harris focuses on the progress of a copper mine project in Arizona, USA, and questions the mainstream narrative of a copper supply deficit, arguing that the market will self-correct through the price mechanism rather than experiencing a cumulative shortage.
Hudbay Minerals, in a joint venture with Mitsubishi, released a feasibility study and made a final investment decision for the Copper World project, targeting production of 102,000 tonnes of copper annually in the first 10 years, with a C1 cash cost of $1.65 per pound and a target start-up in the second half of 2029. This would bring Hudbay's consolidated production to 250,000 tonnes per year. The base case assumes a mine life of 15 years, with potential extension to 37 years. Initial capital expenditure is $2 billion, with the partner only needing to contribute approximately $600 million. Faraday Copper completed the acquisition of the San Manuel copper project from BHP, merging it with the adjacent Copper Creek project to form the Redhawk copper complex, with BHP now holding a 32% stake in Faraday. Earlier this year, Hudbay acquired Arizona Sonoran Copper. Ivanhoe Electric demonstrated the use of a tunnel boring machine in its pre-feasibility study for the Santa Cruz project.
Paul Harris specifically noted that despite long-standing ties with China, Robert Friedland chose a tunnel boring machine from Robbins, based in Solon, Ohio, for Ivanhoe Electric, while China supplies 70% of the global market. At precisely this time, China announced new export controls on tunnel boring machines under dual-use item regulations, citing national security. Paul Harris's original comment was: "Friedland certainly knows his audience, and after meeting US President Donald Trump a couple of times as part of the mining task force, it seems that Friedland is dreaming in red, white and blue."
Consulting firms widely forecast a copper supply gap of approximately 10 million tonnes per year by 2035–2040, but Paul Harris argues this is a "fantasy"—unmet demand does not accumulate; it dissipates. Paul Harris notes that institutions such as McKinsey, Bloomberg, CRU, and Benchmark Minerals are all discussing a copper supply gap. Supply tightness does exist, but the gap narrative carries an element of "fear-mongering," much like Pinocchio—analysts portray it as a real child, but it is not. Paul Harris's original words: "Demand that does not get satisfied does not accumulate on the sideline; it often dissipates. Markets, ceteris paribus, tend to find equilibrium."
Paul Harris believes that copper prices will continue to rise, and copper will become a premium commodity, flowing to sectors willing to pay higher prices and capable of generating the greatest value or utility. Industries unable to bear high copper prices will either seek substitutes (copper pipes replaced by plastic pipes, increased use of aluminum cables), significantly reduce consumption, or simply shut down production. Data centers are consuming the electricity and water resources of developed countries and will increasingly absorb copper, potentially constraining growth and development everywhere. Without copper, there is no electrification or improvement in living standards.
Copper is nearly infinitely recyclable, with approximately 80% of all copper ever produced still in use. Higher recycling values will drive more recycling activity. Paul Harris cites an example: when platinum group metal prices surged, catalytic converter theft spiked. Now, with copper prices approaching $7 per pound, copper cables, wires, air conditioning units, and other copper-containing items have become targets for theft. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, may also be the biggest victim of copper theft — Paul Harris's latest information indicates that Chilean police have broken up a 59-member criminal gang, including workers from Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, who were stealing copper materials. Even more shocking, a train carrying copper cathode bundles across the Atacama Desert has been repeatedly attacked by criminal gangs. Each bundle weighs 1-2.5 tons, yet they have been stolen from a moving train! Most of the stolen copper in Chile is ultimately loaded into containers and shipped to China. Meanwhile, Chile's copper production has fallen below 5 million tons per year, triggering frequent alarms in Santiago.
Paul Harris cites a view from Edward Fishman's book Choke Points: The Era of Economic Warfare and American Power, arguing that after Trump tore up the rules of neoliberal free trade, copper is becoming a geopolitical choke point. At London LME Week, a chart (Exhibit 3) presented by the consulting firm Project Blue shows that the U.S. has now shifted to a copper surplus (excess), while China has entered a copper deficit. Paul Harris asks: Is this a deliberate result of Trump's tariff policy or a byproduct? The U.S. has already demonstrated its ability to disrupt China's copper supply—perhaps sending a signal to China not to threaten the U.S. with rare earths, tungsten, germanium, gallium, and other metals. China appears to be rattled, having made it clear to Anglo American and Teck Resources that it will only approve their merger if they guarantee no reduction in copper supply to China.
Paul Harris suggests, through a series of analyses on Arizona project progress and geopolitical dynamics, that domestic U.S. copper developers (Hudbay, Faraday, Ivanhoe Electric) are benefiting from the supply chain security narrative and policy support. However, readers should note that this is an optimistic narrative from a mining investor's perspective; the project start-up timeline (2029) is distant, and the $2 billion initial investment and permitting risks are not fully discussed. Expectations of higher copper prices are already partially reflected in stock prices, and Paul Harris acknowledges that elevated copper prices could dampen some demand.
BNEF predicts the copper industry needs US$332 billion in investment by 2050 to avoid a 20 million tonne/year supply gap, but Paul Harris believes this figure is overestimated. The article notes that the world's top 10 copper producers (with combined annual output of 10.3–10.7 million tonnes, representing 45–50% of global supply) have a total 2026 investment budget of approximately US$50 billion. However, 30–40% of this is sustaining capital, 15–20% is for stripping costs, leaving only 40–60% (roughly US$20–40 billion) for growth capital. Paul Harris states: "At US$7/lb, copper miners have the cash for this investment and increasingly to build new mines, although most are running lean balance sheets by returning excess capital to shareholders." In other words: "At a copper price of US$7/lb, miners have the cash to invest and gradually build new mines, although most maintain lean balance sheets by returning excess capital to shareholders."
Paul Harris lists specific production data for the top 10 copper producers:
| Company | Annual Production |
|---|---|
| Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) | ~1.9 million tonnes |
| BHP (ASX:BHP) | ~1.87 million tonnes |
| Codelco | ~1.3–1.4 million tonnes |
| Zijin Mining | ~1.1 million tonnes |
| Southern Copper | ~974,000 tonnes |
| Glencore (LSE:GLEN) | ~952,000 tonnes |
| Anglo American (LSE:AAL) | ~773,000 tonnes |
| KGHM Polska Miedź | ~730,000 tonnes |
| Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) | ~664,000 tonnes |
| First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) | ~431,000 tonnes |
Paul Harris specifically notes that this list does not include companies such as Barrick Mining (NYSE:GOLD), Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN), Teck Resources (TSX:TECK), or Hudbay Mining (TSX:HBM). Meanwhile, analysis from Chile's GEM Mining Consulting shows that actual incremental production from Latin American copper investment portfolios is only 70% of the paper figures (100 million tonnes of paper growth corresponds to 70 million tonnes of net growth).
Paul Harris argues that despite miners having cash flow at US$7/lb copper, capital discipline and risk aversion prevent large miners from investing heavily in new capacity. The cost of building a new mine has risen to US$5–10 billion, and it faces risks such as permitting timelines and social license. Paul Harris states: "Risk is why few companies are investing in developing new capacity, (plus permitting times and social licence), with some management teams perhaps happy to leave such decisions for the next management." In other words: "Risk is precisely why few companies are investing in developing new capacity (plus permitting timelines and social license), with some management teams perhaps happy to leave such decisions to the next management."
The article uses Glencore (LSE:GLEN) as an example: the company recently finalized a land agreement for the Coroccohuayco brownfield project (investment of US$1.8 billion) at its Antapaccay copper mine in Peru. The project is expected to start production in the second half of 2029 and could extend the mine's life to over 40 years—but this is life-extension, not truly new capacity.
Paul Harris's core judgment is that the copper market will not see the 20 million tonne/year gap predicted by BNEF, because unmet demand will dissipate through the price mechanism. Copper prices will continue to rise, and copper will become a premium commodity. Industries unable to bear high prices (such as certain construction or low-end manufacturing) will be substituted or phased out. Investors should focus on copper developers (such as Ivanhoe Electric, Faraday Copper, etc., mentioned in the article) and the U.S. domestic copper supply chain theme. However, it should be noted that this is a position-holder's perspective—Paul Harris has long been bullish on copper development, and his views carry an industry-promotional tone.
| Position | Direction | Paul Harris's One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hudbay Minerals (TSX:HBM) | Hold & Watch | Paul Harris acknowledges progress on its Copper World project, believing it benefits from the narrative of a US domestic copper supply chain | The joint venture with Mitsubishi targets 102,000 tonnes of copper per year for the first 10 years, with a C1 cash cost of $1.65/lb and a target for H2 2029 production start; combined output will rise to 250,000 tonnes/year |
| Faraday Copper | Hold & Watch | Paul Harris notes its completion of the acquisition of the San Manuel copper project from BHP, merging it with Copper Creek to form the Redhawk complex | BHP now holds a 32% stake in Faraday |
| Ivanhoe Electric | Hold & Watch | Paul Harris emphasizes its use of a US tunnel boring machine at the Santa Cruz project, implying it benefits from geopolitical narratives | Selected a tunnel boring machine from Ohio-based Robbins, coinciding with China's announcement of export controls on tunnel boring machines |
| Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 1.9 million tonnes | Annual output of approximately 1.9 million tonnes |
| BHP (ASX:BHP) | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's second-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 1.87 million tonnes | Annual output of approximately 1.87 million tonnes |
| Codelco | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris notes its copper output has fallen below 5 million tonnes/year, and that employees are involved in copper theft | Annual output of approximately 1.3-1.4 million tonnes; Chilean copper output has fallen below 5 million tonnes/year |
| Zijin Mining | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's fourth-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 1.1 million tonnes | Annual output of approximately 1.1 million tonnes |
| Southern Copper | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's fifth-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 974,000 tonnes | Annual output of approximately 974,000 tonnes |
| Glencore (LSE:GLEN) | Hold & Watch | Paul Harris uses its Coroccohuayco brownfield project as an example of major miners favoring life extensions over new capacity | The Coroccohuayco project at the Antapaccay copper mine in Peru involves an investment of $1.8 billion, with expected production start in H2 2029, extending the mine life to over 40 years |
| Anglo American (LSE:AAL) | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's seventh-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 773,000 tonnes | Annual output of approximately 773,000 tonnes |
| KGHM Polska Miedź | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's eighth-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 730,000 tonnes | Annual output of approximately 730,000 tonnes |
| Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's ninth-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 664,000 tonnes | Annual output of approximately 664,000 tonnes |
| First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) | Not explicitly stated | Paul Harris lists it as the world's tenth-largest copper producer, with annual output of approximately 431,000 tonnes | Annual output of approximately 431,000 tonnes |