Rick Rule is a veteran natural-resource investor who began in 1974, built Global Resource Investments (sold to Sprott in 2011), and led Sprott U.S. Holdings until retiring in 2021 to found Rule Investment Media. His free Substack covers contrarian speculation in mining, energy and critical minerals — gold, silver, copper, nickel, royalty and streaming companies — framed by geopolitical risk.
This article is bullish on copper, saying supply is getting tighter because Chile's copper output in August hit its lowest in over 20 years and new mines are hard to bring online. It highlights Copper Giant Resources (TSXV:CGNT), whose Mocoa project has 2.13 billion pounds of indicated copper resources and could benefit if Colombia speeds up permitting, potentially becoming one of the few new sources to fill the supply gap.
One-sentence summary: The author holds a [bullish] stance on the copper market, arguing that supply shortages are intensifying while new mine development faces difficulties, benefiting exploration companies with high-quality projects.
The report notes that Chile's August copper production fell 13% year-on-year to 366.3 kt, the lowest level since July 2002, while Latin America's copper project pipeline cannot guarantee new supply.
According to data from the Chilean Copper Commission Cochilco, August production declined 13% year-on-year to 366.3 kt. Analysis by Santiago-based GEM Mining Consulting indicates that a significant portion of capital expenditure in Latin America's copper project portfolio is allocated to sustaining capital or expansion projects aimed at offsetting production declines, rather than new capacity additions. The author's original statement, "producers are investing hand over fist just to stand still," means that producers are investing heavily merely to maintain the status quo.
| Region | Development Project Portfolio Size | Actual Net Production Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Chile + Peru | Approximately $168 billion | Only 700 kt/year |
GEM points out that production declines at existing operations have reduced nominal paper growth of 1 million tonnes per year to just 700 kt in net production growth. A chart from Sprott using USGS data shows that while copper prices have risen sevenfold (2000–2025), production has increased by only 15%, indicating that high copper prices have not effectively incentivized new capacity to come online.
The report argues that Copper Giant Resources' Mocoa copper-molybdenum project could benefit from a draft decree in Colombia aimed at shortening approval timelines.
Copper Giant Resources (TSXV:CGNT), a participant at the Rule Symposium, reported updated resource estimates for its Mocoa copper-molybdenum project in Putumayo, Colombia: indicated resources of 2.13 billion pounds of copper and 240 million pounds of molybdenum, and inferred resources of 9.36 billion pounds of copper. A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is expected to be completed in Q4 2026. Colombia's Ministry of Energy and Mining has drafted a decree allowing the simultaneous advancement of prior consultation and environmental permitting processes, which is estimated to shorten project approval timelines by several years. The report notes that this approach is similar to successful efforts in Canada and the United States to reduce approval times while maintaining rigorous standards.
The report reinforces the narrative of a copper market supply shortage through the decline in Chilean production and GEM's analysis—producers are investing heavily but only to sustain existing output, not to add net supply. Copper Giant Resources' Mocoa project, if it benefits from Colombia's permitting reform, could become one of the few new projects capable of filling the supply gap. Institutional bias note: As a resource equity investor, the author tends to emphasize supply tightness to support a bullish stance; readers should be mindful of the historical uncertainty surrounding Colombia's mining regulatory environment.
| Ticker | Direction | Author’s One-Sentence View | Key Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper Giant Resources (TSXV:CGNT) | Hold & Watch | If its Mocoa project benefits from Colombia’s approval reform, it could become one of the few new projects capable of filling the supply gap | Indicated resource of 2.13 billion lbs copper, 240 million lbs molybdenum; Inferred resource of 9.36 billion lbs copper; PEA expected to be completed in Q4 2026 |