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Oakmark FundsQuarterly31 Mar 2020Source: oakmark.com

David Herro Market Commentary | 1Q20

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This is Oakmark's take on the 2020 first-quarter market crash. The manager argues that panic drove stock prices down 30-50% for many solid companies, but their intrinsic value (what the business is really worth based on future cash) only dipped a little. His portfolio now trades at 40 cents on the dollar of that value, near historic lows. For example, BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse trade at about 40% of tangible book value (net assets), even though their balance sheets are stronger than in 2008. BMW's enterprise value (market cap plus debt) is under €20 billion, while its normal annual sales are near €100 billion. For regular investors, this suggests staying calm during panic and looking for bargains in strong companies.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark’s report notes that due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Oakmark International Fund and International Small Cap Fund performed very weakly in the first quarter of 2020, with many portfolio holdings experiencing stock price declines of 30–50%. The core argument is that short-term m

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter discusses the extremely weak performance of the Oakmark International Fund and International Small Cap Fund in the first quarter of 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic shock. However, the author argues that the sharp stock price declines driven by market panic have created a massive divergence from fundamental intrinsic value, presenting a historic opportunity for long-term value investors.

Core Thesis

The author’s core investment thesis is that short-term market panic has driven stock prices down by 30-50%, while intrinsic value, based on discounted cash flows, has only declined by mid-single-digit to low-double-digit percentages. The current portfolio trades at approximately 40 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value, a historic discount level. Contrary to market consensus, the author views this as a prime opportunity for value investing, not a crisis.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Divergence between stock price and intrinsic value: Most portfolio holdings have seen stock price declines of 30-50%, but intrinsic value has only fallen by mid-single-digit to low-double-digit percentages. The author emphasizes that enterprise value depends on long-term cash flows, not short-term market sentiment.
  • Portfolio discount level: The current portfolio trades at about 40 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value, near its historical low.
  • Specific case data:
  • BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse Group trade at approximately 40% of tangible book value, below their valuation levels during the 2008 financial crisis, yet their balance sheets are significantly stronger.
  • BMW’s enterprise value is below €20 billion, while the author estimates its normalized sales (excluding financial services) for 2022 at nearly €100 billion, with operating profit exceeding €7 billion and excess cash on the balance sheet.
  • Comparative data:
Company Current Valuation Metric Historical Comparison Fundamental Condition
BNP Paribas ~40% of tangible book value Below 2008 financial crisis level Significantly stronger balance sheet
Credit Suisse Group ~40% of tangible book value Below 2008 financial crisis level Significantly stronger balance sheet
BMW Enterprise value < €20 billion No direct comparison Normalized sales ~€100 billion, 2022 operating profit > €7 billion, excess cash

Companies/Assets Involved

  • BNP Paribas: Portfolio weight 3.4%, bullish. Valuation below crisis levels, but fundamentals stronger.
  • Credit Suisse Group: Portfolio weight 3.4%, bullish. Valuation below crisis levels, but fundamentals stronger.
  • BMW: Portfolio weight 3.7%, bullish. Enterprise value below €20 billion, far below its normalized revenue and profit levels.

Investment Implications

  • Directional judgment: The current environment represents a buying window for long-term value investors, not a selling opportunity. The portfolio discount level (40 cents on the dollar) suggests significant potential future returns.
  • Operational advice: Investors should focus on blue-chip stocks with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows, particularly financials and cyclical leaders (e.g., auto stocks) whose valuations have already fallen below historical crisis levels. Avoid being swayed by short-term panic and adhere to intrinsic value assessments based on discounted cash flows.