← Back to list
Oakmark FundsQuarterly30 Jun 2014Source: oakmark.com

David Herro Market Commentary | 2Q14

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This quarterly report explains how a fund manager navigated a calm market despite scary headlines like Russia-Ukraine conflict and ISIS. He argues these events don't hurt the long-term value of his holdings. He's bullish on European banks like Credit Suisse and BNP, which fell on US regulatory fines—he sees those as one-time hits, not permanent damage. He also likes Japanese stocks because government reforms (like better corporate governance) could boost their value. The takeaway: don't panic over news; focus on whether companies are fundamentally sound.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

The Oakmark International Fund and Oakmark International Small Cap Fund delivered positive returns in a low-volatility market environment, but slightly underperformed their respective benchmarks. The relatively weak quarterly performance was driven by two factors: 1) underweight allocation to direct

~3 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter discusses the quarterly performance of the Oakmark International Fund and International Small Cap Fund in a low-volatility market environment. Although the market was disrupted by macro events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ISIS's invasion of Iraq, volatility remained extremely low except for a surge in oil prices. The funds achieved positive returns but slightly underperformed their benchmark.

Core Thesis

The author argues that macro-geopolitical events, such as Russia's annexation of Crimea, do not structurally impact companies' future free cash flows and therefore did not shake confidence in European holdings. Regulatory fines imposed on Credit Suisse and BNP are one-time events that do not impair their long-term business value. Although Japan was the worst-performing market, government-driven corporate governance reforms and pension reforms have reopened the "value gap."

Key Arguments and Data

  • Quarterly Performance Drags: 1) Underweight allocation to direct emerging market equities (which staged a strong rebound); 2) Overweight exposure to Europe, particularly the financial sector (which performed weakly in the quarter).
  • Logic for European Holdings: The author is a bottom-up stock picker, focusing on the persistence, speed, and quality of companies' free cash flows rather than their headquarters location. Russia's annexation of Crimea did not alter the view on European companies.
  • Credit Suisse and BNP Cases: Both companies saw share price declines due to U.S. regulatory fines, but the author believes their business value was not fundamentally impaired. The judgment is based on adequate capital, solid business models, and the potential for recovery after legal settlements.
  • Japan Market: In 2014, Japan was the worst-performing developed market. However, the government committed to using $1.4 trillion in pension funds to drive corporate governance reforms (improving capital allocation, independent boards) and to lower corporate tax rates. The author believes this has reopened the "value gap"—share prices fell while business value rose modestly.
  • Valuation Assessment: The global corporate earnings cycle appears to have bottomed. Although portfolio valuations are not as extremely cheap as in prior years, they remain attractive.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company/Asset Role Key Data View
Credit Suisse Core holding Share price fell due to U.S. regulatory fines Bullish: Business value unimpaired, adequate capital, potential for recovery
BNP Core holding Share price fell due to U.S. regulatory fines Bullish: Solid business model, potential for recovery after legal settlement
Japanese equities (overall) Allocation direction Worst-performing developed market in 2014; government pension fund size $1.4 trillion Bullish: Reforms open value gap, weak share prices but rising business value

Investment Implications

  • Overweight European Financials: Despite short-term weakness, the author believes regulatory fines and geopolitical events do not alter long-term value and recommends maintaining holdings in core positions such as Credit Suisse and BNP.
  • Focus on Japan's Reform Dividend: The Japanese government's use of pension funds to drive corporate governance reforms may improve corporate capital efficiency and shareholder returns, with current valuations once again appearing attractive.
  • Global Earnings Cycle Bottom: Although portfolio valuations are not as extremely cheap as in prior years, the earnings cycle bottom implies a margin of safety at current valuations, and reducing positions due to short-term macro noise is not advisable.