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Oakmark FundsQuarterly31 Dec 2024Source: oakmark.com

Oakmark Fund: Fourth Calendar Quarter 2024

Oakmark is the mutual fund family launched in 1991 by Harris Associates, the Chicago deep-value firm founded in 1976 (about $105bn AUM). Bill Nygren runs the flagship Oakmark Fund and David Herro the Oakmark International Fund, buying businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value and holding them like owners — publishing quarterly fund commentaries, market commentaries and insight articles.

Bill Nygren、David Herro · 1991 · 美国芝加哥Deep value / contrarian long-term

In plain words

This report covers Oakmark Fund’s Q4 2024 moves. Although the market isn’t cheap, stock valuations vary wildly. They bought firms temporarily out of favor but with solid businesses: health insurer Centene (under 9 times expected 2025 earnings), Airbnb (discounted on travel slowdown fears), and asset manager Carlyle Group (price-to-earnings ratio less than half peers). For ordinary investors, the lesson: don’t be swayed by short-term fears; look for good companies at bargain prices. It’s worth reading because it shows how professionals find a “margin of safety”—buying well below a company’s true value—through concrete examples.

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Oakmark Fund returned 2.04% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 2.41%, but has achieved a cumulative return of 12.82% since inception, outperforming the index (10.67%). The report focuses on investment opportunities arising from market valuation divergence: al

~4 min full read · 5 sections
Deep Analysis

Theme and Background

This chapter reviews the performance and investment activities of the Oakmark Fund in the fourth quarter of 2024. The report notes that while overall market valuations are above historical averages, the dispersion in valuation multiples across different companies has widened significantly, providing the fund with opportunities to purchase a diversified set of high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.

Core Thesis

The author's core investment argument is that the current severe valuation dispersion in the market actually creates a margin of safety and potential for excess returns. The counterintuitive judgment is that, against a backdrop of elevated overall market valuations, the fund buys high-quality companies undervalued due to short-term concerns (such as Centene, Airbnb, and Carlyle Group), believing their intrinsic value is not fully reflected by the market.

Key Arguments and Data

  • Performance Comparison: The fund returned 2.04% for the quarter, slightly below the S&P 500 index's 2.41%; however, since inception, it has achieved a cumulative return of 12.82%, outperforming the index's 10.67%.
  • Wells Fargo: In the third quarter, expense control was strong, with the efficiency ratio continuing to improve; fee income grew by 12%; the company repurchased $3.5 billion in stock during the quarter and approximately $16 billion for the full year. The stock rose as market expectations grew that the financial sector would benefit from deregulation and tax cuts.
  • Centene: The third quarter showed solid fundamentals, with 2025 EPS guidance above consensus, but the stock fell due to investor concerns over post-election legislative changes. The current valuation is less than 9 times the 2025 EPS guidance.
  • Carlyle Group: Lagged behind peers expanding into alternative credit due to an over-concentration in private equity (a mature industry), with a P/E ratio less than half that of peers and well below other financial services companies with similar growth prospects.
  • Airbnb: Short-term macroeconomic concerns about travel and growth investments leading to margin compression allowed the fund to buy at a discount to its estimated business value.

Companies/Assets Involved

Company/Asset Role Key Data Bullish/Bearish
Wells Fargo Largest contributor for the quarter Fee income grew 12%; quarterly buybacks of $3.5B; full-year buybacks of ~$16B Bullish: Believes it has a competitively advantaged business mix and return potential
Centene Largest detractor for the quarter 2025 EPS guidance above consensus; valuation less than 9x 2025 EPS Bullish: Believes political concerns are overpriced, and the company has organic earnings growth capability
Carlyle Group New purchase P/E ratio less than half that of peers; management is driving expansion into retail channels and alternative credit Bullish: Believes brand and distribution capabilities will drive growth, and the valuation discount provides a margin of safety
Airbnb New purchase Benefits from strong network effects; global travel market growth and increasing share of alternative accommodations Bullish: Believes short-term concerns create a discount price, with a clear long-term growth runway
Elevance Health New purchase One of the largest managed care organizations in the U.S.; under pressure due to a mismatch between reimbursement rates and medical costs Bullish: Believes headwinds are temporary, and the company's scale, diversification, and underwriting discipline will restore profitability
GE HealthCare New purchase Spun off from General Electric in January 2023; a global leader in medical technology Bullish: Believes increased focus and improved management incentives post-spin-off will drive margin and growth improvements

Investment Implications

  • Focus on opportunities amid valuation dispersion: Investors should focus on companies with solid fundamentals and long-term growth potential that are undervalued due to short-term macro or political concerns, such as Centene and Airbnb.
  • Pay attention to structural changes in the financial sector: The cases of Wells Fargo and Carlyle Group show that the financial industry is benefiting from expense control, buybacks, and potential deregulation, while the expansion of alternative asset managers into retail and credit may generate excess returns.
  • Contrarian positioning in the healthcare sector: Managed care companies like Elevance Health currently face industry headwinds, but the author believes these headwinds are temporary and that valuations already reflect overly pessimistic expectations, making them worth considering for long-term contrarian investors.