This interview argues that the US health crisis stems from a broken incentive system: everyone in food and healthcare makes more money when you're sick, so 97% of spending goes to treating disease and only 3% to prevention. Mares warns against Ozempic, noting 30-40% of weight loss comes from muscle and bone loss, and weight returns after stopping. He also flags glyphosate (a weedkiller) in US drinking water at 7,000 times the EU limit, calling environmental toxins a major future risk.
Justin Mares, in episode 333 of Invest Like the Best, points out that the United States is facing a health crisis that could ultimately lead to national bankruptcy. The three health food brands he founded, along with TrueMed, generate a combined annual revenue of over $100 million. His core argument
Justin Mares is the founder of TrueMed, having previously launched three health food brands with combined annual revenues exceeding $100 million. The core theme of this episode: the U.S. health system suffers from systemic incentive misalignment, exacerbating chronic diseases, declining mental health, and infertility issues, potentially leading to national bankruptcy. Key takeaway: Mares argues that the incentive structure within the U.S. food and healthcare system makes all participants earn more when consumers are sick, which is the root cause of the health crisis—97% of medical spending goes toward treating those already ill, while only 3% is allocated to prevention.
Mares argues that over the past 50–60 years, the health of Americans has fundamentally deteriorated, with chronic diseases evolving from near non-existence to accounting for 20% of GDP.
Mares emphasizes that the root cause lies in the structural incentive distortions within the food system:
Mares specifically notes that the “cognitive tools” of nutrition research have been systematically weaponized: In the past two years, 50,000 nutrition studies have been published, many funded by large food companies. For every $1 the NIH spends, large food companies spend $11 funding nutrition research. “They are replicating the tobacco companies’ strategy from 40–50 years ago—funding every study that could blur the lines of causality.”
Mares remains highly cautious about GLP-1 agonists such as Ozempic, viewing them as a quintessential example of "symptom engineering" rather than addressing root causes.
Mares places Ozempic alongside other historical "engineered solutions": Heart disease rates are rising, yet statin prescriptions are at an all-time high—heart disease continues to climb; depression rates are rising, and SSRI prescriptions are at record levels—still climbing. "Core health metrics continue to deteriorate."
Mares argues that physical health and mental health are "the same thing," closely linked through the gut-brain axis.
Mares acknowledges that this field is still in its early stages: "Our understanding of the gut-brain axis is very preliminary. But if you believe obesity is a symptom of metabolic dysfunction, then using drugs to address the symptom without solving the root cause does nothing for chronic disease, inflammation, mental health, and so on."
Mares believes that environmental toxins (PFAS, glyphosate, etc.) will be one of the most important health trends over the next decade, with their dangers potentially far exceeding current understanding.
Mares argues that the bioaccumulation and interactive effects of these chemicals represent the greatest unknown risk: "We are conducting a massive experiment—what happens when all these toxins and chemicals interact? We have absolutely no idea."
Avoidance strategy (80/20 rule):
1. Check everyday products (shampoo, hand soap, lotion, face cream)—ensure they are PFAS-free
2. Use non-toxic cookware (ceramic or stainless steel)
3. Invest in a high-quality water filtration system (reverse osmosis + remineralization)
4. Help eliminate toxins from the body through saunas, sweating, and drinking clean water
Mares predicts: "If someone could create a water brand free of PFAS or microplastics, it would be an absolute success."
Mares introduces the concept of the "Edge City"—the frontier of a given field, where what you encounter today will become mainstream in 5-10 years.
1. When friends and acquaintances frequently ask you questions on a certain topic, yet you rarely receive deep insights from them in return.
2. When you speak with a well-known figure in a field, and the conversation centers not on what made them famous, but on the topic you have deeply researched—you become the "high-status" party in that dialogue.
3. Maintaining extreme openness to being proven wrong.
Mares cites Flagship Pioneering in the biotech sector as an example: "Over the past 20 years, they have created companies like Moderna and Indigo Bio, achieving one of the best returns in investment history. They turned a fundamental insight into a system or infrastructure, enabling them to continuously convert insights into companies."
| Position | Guest Stance | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Kettle & Fire | Founder (successfully exited) | #1 bone broth brand in the U.S.; first bone broth brand to receive glyphosate residue-free certification |
| Perfect Keto | Founder | Ketogenic diet food and supplement brand |
| Shirley | Founder | Non-alcoholic wine brand |
| TrueMed | Founder (current project) | Helps consumers use HSA/FSA tax-free funds to purchase health products; total HSA/FSA account balance approximately $150 billion, with 91% sitting idle as cash |
| Ozempic (Novo Nordisk) | Risk warning | 30-40% of weight loss comes from muscle and bone density loss; could become one of the most profitable drugs in history |
| Campbell's | Neutral (mentioned as competitor) | Annual revenue approximately $8 billion |
| Mindbloom | Positive mention (founded by friend) | First ketamine-assisted therapy company in the U.S. |
| Flagship Pioneering | Positive case | Created companies such as Moderna, Indigo Bio, etc. |
| Atomic | Positive case | Has incubated over 50 companies |
| 8Sleep | Positive mention (TrueMed partner) | Smart mattress, purchasable via HSA/FSA |
| Peloton | Positive mention (TrueMed partner) | Fitness equipment, purchasable via HSA/FSA |
1. "All participants in the U.S. food and healthcare system earn more when consumers are sick" (Mares) — 97% of medical spending goes toward treating those already ill, with only 3% allocated to prevention. This is the core misalignment of system incentives.
2. "30-40% of the weight loss from Ozempic comes from muscle and bone density loss" (Mares) — Muscle acts as a glucose "sink"; losing it means the body is less able to withstand the blood sugar shocks of an unhealthy diet. All weight is regained after discontinuation, and long-term safety data are lacking.
3. "The allowable level of glyphosate in U.S. drinking water is 7,000 times higher than in the EU" (Mares) — 0.1 ppb can alter rat gene function and cause organ damage, yet the U.S. permits 700 ppb. A total of 28 countries have completely banned glyphosate.
4. "If you rely on school lunch as your primary source of nutrition, that itself is a risk factor for childhood diabetes" (Mares) — It carries the same level of risk as "being born into a family where a parent has diabetes." 25% of children have prediabetes, and 45% are overweight or obese.
5. "Edge City" framework (Mares & Dylan Bynon) — If you are on the frontier of a given field, what you encounter today will become mainstream in 5-10 years. Identifying sign: friends often ask you questions about a topic, while you rarely receive deep insights from them on it.
6. "The power-law distribution among people also exists, but almost no one explicitly states it" (Mares) — Elon Musk is more likely to found five important companies than five different people each founding one. Multi-company founders will become more common as AI tools and capital formation create new patterns.
7. "In 2008, knowing how to code was more important than understanding the industry; today, deep domain expertise combined with software tools is key" (Mares) — Huge returns are increasingly coming from those with deep domain knowledge who can use software as a tool.
8. "Terrain theory may be partially correct: a person who is more prone to inflammation is also more susceptible to disease" (Mares) — While the specific formulation of the theory may be inaccurate, its core insight—that the environment ("terrain") matters more than the pathogen itself—is worth keeping an open mind about.