This is about ex-NBA exec Sam Hinkie's approach to decisions: think long-term, go against the crowd, and be patient. He says patience is the biggest edge—like Amazon using long-term plans to feed our desire for instant delivery. He highlights undervalued young players like Kyle Lowry (from backup to All-Star), Joel Embiid (drafted injured, became a star), and Dario Šarić (drafted, waited two years to join NBA). His key point: courage matters more than data—doing the right but unpopular thing is where the real gains are.
Sam Hinkie discussed the application of data-driven decision-making in the NBA and investing on the Invest Like the Best podcast. The core argument is that a long-term perspective and contrarian thinking can generate asymmetric returns, with the key lying in courage and structured execution. He shar
Sam Hinkie is a former data analytics pioneer for the Houston Rockets, former President and General Manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, and currently an angel investor and advisor. The central theme of this episode is: how long-term perspective, contrarian thinking, and structured execution create asymmetric returns in environments with incomplete information. The most impactful insight in the entire episode comes from Hinkie: "Sometimes the single best factor you can arbitrage is patience—what Amazon does is simply feed our short-term desires with long-term thinking."
Sam Hinkie argues that having an ultra-long investment horizon is the greatest structural advantage, as competition naturally decays over time.
Hinkie shared a key anecdote: during a meeting with the 76ers, a colleague said, "We don’t want to regret this in three or four years." He interrupted, saying, "Thirty or forty years. Don’t kid yourself that we won’t think back thirty or forty years from now on that opportunity with the 76ers, and we took the shortcut." He admits this mindset is innate—he even considered on a first date whether his partner was suitable for a 50- to 70-year life together.
Core Mechanism: A long-term perspective allows you to use an "internal scorecard," judging decisions solely by your own standards and those of a few people you respect. As the time horizon extends, the number of competitors drops sharply—most cannot withstand short-term pressure or lack patience.
Deduction and Validation: Hinkie believes patience is the hardest trait to execute, especially under public scrutiny. Validation Signal: Are you willing to feel proud of a decision 30 years from now? If the answer is no, it means you are taking a shortcut.
Hinkie defines innovation as "organized theft"—focusing on what works elsewhere, then transplanting it into one's own domain.
He uses the story of the Comanche tribe from Empire of the Summer Moon to illustrate technology transfer and the adoption curve: the Spanish brought horses → the Comanche became exceptional riders → settlers were slaughtered → Texas Rangers killed the horses (neutralizing the enemy's advantage) → the revolver was invented in New York → Rangers used six-shooters to defeat Comanche riders. Key lesson: "If you don't plan for tomorrow, or fail to engage with future markets and technologies, someone else will. Whoever applies it fastest and best becomes the next temporary winner."
Personal case: Hinkie's early team used Slack to solve the integration problem for remote employees, expanding the talent pool from Philadelphia to San Francisco, Canada, and Chicago. "It sounds silly, but Slack helped us hire talent we otherwise couldn't have reached."
Implication: The barrier to innovation is tradition—tradition is "consensus reached without better analysis" and should be a starting point, not an endpoint. Hinkie's litmus test: "If the Spurs did the opposite, I would doubt my analysis was wrong." The burden of proof for newcomers is high.
Hinkie argues that the core of asymmetric returns lies not in data, but in courage—especially the courage to do what is right but unpopular.
He recalls trading away a 32-year-old starting point guard on the Rockets' trade deadline day in exchange for Kyle Lowry, a 22-year-old third-string point guard from Memphis. The move sparked public outcry at the time, but the team had strong conviction in Lowry and backup Aaron Brooks. "I texted Daryl Morey that day, saying I was proud to work with him—because he had the courage to do what he knew was right, even if it would be unpopular for a month or two." The public opinion reversed just 10–12 days later.
Mechanism Breakdown: Asymmetric outcomes are often underestimated in the NBA because:
Inference: Hinkie believes, "The way I think about the world is largely about looking for fat tails and extraordinary outcomes." The validation signal: Are you willing to execute an analytically correct decision when everyone else opposes it? If you hesitate, it indicates a lack of courage.
Hinkie believes hiring is the greatest source of competitive advantage, and he places more emphasis on it than anyone he knows.
The core principle comes from Bain's maxim: "A players hire A players; B players hire C players." Insecurity leads to a decline in team quality. Hinkie's Mac folder for hiring is named "Stunning Colleagues."
Practical Methods:
1. Extremely Long Hiring Cycles: Use multiple interactions to allow both sides to get to know each other.
2. "Try Before You Hire": Pay candidates to work on real projects, even if they are ultimately not hired.
3. Reverse Test: Ask yourself, "Would I be willing to work for this person?" If the answer is yes, hire them.
4. Naval Test: Would you be willing to spend the rest of your life with this person? If not, don't waste time.
Data Support: Hinkie cites Netflix's "Stunning Colleagues" culture—working with truly exceptional people creates a power-law effect, enabling a team to achieve incredible things.
Hinkie believes that data is the starting point of decision-making, not the endpoint; the key lies in knowing when to manually override the automated system.
He introduces the "pilot analogy": Do you want a pilot to fly by instruments or by experience? "Both. If autopilot is better for 90% of flights, use autopilot; if conditions are unsuitable, don't." The goal is to build a system good enough that manual intervention is rarely needed—but when it is, you must understand what you are doing and the risks involved.
Early Key Findings (Rockets era):
| Finding | Implication |
|---|---|
| Defense was severely undervalued | Defensive stats (rebounds, blocks, steals) are "lossy variables," with a large gap between perception and reality |
| Three-pointers are 50% more valuable than two-pointers | Rafer Alston's record for three-point attempts has been broken countless times |
Extrapolation: Hinkie argues that machine learning is changing the game—it allows for broader datasets and more complex algorithms, but at the cost that "you can no longer point to the coefficient size of each variable." Validation signal: Are you willing to accept a model that you cannot fully explain but that predicts better? If you resist, it means you are not yet ready for the next stage.
Hinkie believes that choosing a life partner is "the single most important decision you will ever make, bar none"—because it represents the longest-term sharing of the scarcest resource.
He cites twin studies from The Selfish Reasons for Having More Kids: aside from religious choices and the "background music" of childhood, nearly all traits of a child stem from the combination of their parents' genes. Conclusion: If you want your child to possess certain traits, select them in your spouse. Conversely, traits that trouble you in a spouse will appear in offspring at an even higher concentration.
Extrapolation: Hinkie summarizes with Charlie Munger's words: "To get a good partner, first be worthy of a good partner. Don't just go halfway—go more than halfway."
| Position | Guest Stance | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | Bullish (identified early and acquired via trade) | 22-year-old third-string point guard → All-Star player |
| Joel Embiid | Bullish (personally scouted and maintained contact) | Structurally unable to play in his first year at the time of the draft |
| Dario Šarić | Bullish (locked in for two years in Europe at the draft) | "We had no players left" after draft night |
| T.J. McConnell | Bullish (appreciated his effort exceeding talent) | Undrafted → stable rotation player |
| Robert Covington | Bullish | Undrafted → quality 3-and-D player |
| Chuck Hayes | Bullish (shortest starting center) | Long-underrated defender by the league |
| Shane Battier | Bullish | Core of team defense |
| Aaron Brooks | Bullish (playoff breakout) | 25 points in a single playoff game |
1. "Sometimes the single best factor you can arbitrage is patience" (Sam Hinkie) — Amazon uses long-term thinking to feed users' short-term desires (two-day delivery → same-day → one-hour delivery). The more users are satisfied, the more Amazon can execute its long-term strategy.
2. "A players hire A players; B players hire C players" (Bain maxim, cited by Hinkie) — Insecurity causes team quality to degrade exponentially; Hinkie named his recruiting folder "Stunning Colleagues."
3. "If you want your children to have certain traits, pick them in your spouse" (Hinkie citing Bryan Caplan's research) — Twin studies show that, aside from religion and childhood "background music," nearly all of a child's traits come from the genetic combination of their parents.
4. "I never try to have an opinion on something I can't explain — unless I understand the other side's position as deeply as they do, I probably can't win the argument" (Hinkie citing Charlie Munger) — The core of negotiation is preparation and empathy: understanding the other party's true needs and pressures.
5. "Defense is severely undervalued, and three-pointers are worth 50% more than two-pointers" (Hinkie) — Two core discoveries by the early Rockets team that still hold true 15 years later; the gap between perception and reality is a persistent source of arbitrage.
6. "A draft pick is like Google being able to recruit engineers from Stanford, sign them for nine years, and no one can poach them" (Hinkie) — The value of draft picks is underestimated by the market because the greater the uncertainty and the less data available, the lower the efficiency.
7. "Downside asymmetry: no one can become LeBron James tomorrow, but anyone could suffer a career-ending injury tomorrow" (Hinkie) — The return distribution for NBA players has a fat tail on the left, which requires a special framework for investing in draft picks and young players.
8. "When I was 10, a friend's dad took me to play basketball all day — that got me out of places a 10-year-old shouldn't be" (Hinkie) — This was his answer when asked, "What is the kindest thing anyone has ever done for you?" It illustrates that providing a safe haven and a beloved activity at a critical moment can have a lifelong impact.