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Colossus (Invest Like the Best / Business Breakdowns)Podcast13 Oct 2026Source: colossus.comHost: Patrick O'Shaughnessy

David Vélez - Building Nubank and the Future of Global Banking - [Invest Like the Best, EP.495]

In plain words

This interview covers Nubank founder David Vélez's view on global banking. He says traditional banks still hold 90% of the market, like Blockbuster before Netflix. Vélez is bullish on AI making banks 50x more efficient and has restructured Nubank around it. He mentions Nubank (140M customers, costs 3% of traditional banks), traditional banks (at risk of disruption), and Bitcoin (role in diversified portfolios).

AI SummaryAI-generated · may contain errors · verify against the original

Nubank founder David Vélez noted in a podcast that the global banking industry is still in the "Blockbuster era," with most operations relying on physical branches and traditional banks. Nubank currently serves 140 million customers in Latin America and has fully restructured its organization around

~9 min full read · 6 sections
Deep Analysis

Here is the English translation of the provided Chinese investment research notes.

At a Glance

Nubank founder and CEO David Vélez believes the global banking industry is still in the "Blockbuster era," with 90% of market share and profit pools still held by traditional banks. He argues that AI will amplify the efficiency advantage of digital banks to over 50 times that of traditional banks, making "a personal banker for everyone" possible, and ultimately compressing the world's 190 fiat currencies down to about 10. Nubank has already fully restructured its organization for this and is officially entering the US market.

The "Blockbuster Moment" for Global Banking: 90% of the Market Still Awaits Disruption

David Vélez believes that of the approximately $10 trillion profit pool in the global consumer financial services industry, 90% still flows through the physical branches of traditional banks, with digital banks (including all fintech companies) accounting for less than 10% combined. This is akin to when Netflix emerged, and 90% of people were still renting VHS tapes from Blockbuster. He argues that the migration "from physical to digital" that has already occurred in media, retail, and transportation is just beginning in financial services.

  • Quantitative Comparison of Scale and Efficiency: Nubank operates with 140 million customers and 10,000 employees, while traditional competitors have 100 million customers, 100,000 employees, and 6,000 branches. Vélez points out that Nubank's customer service cost is only 3% of a traditional bank's. This constitutes a core cost advantage from the "pre-AI era."
  • "Hidden Tax" and Market Opportunity: Using the US as an example, Vélez notes that on approximately $15 trillion in retail deposits, banks pay an average annualized yield of only 40 basis points. In a 4.5%-5% interest rate environment, this equates to banks levying a "hidden tax" of roughly $600 billion annually on depositors to maintain their expensive physical branch networks. He believes this is a massive profit pool that digital banks can "compete away."

AI's "December Moment": From Missing the Signal to Full Restructuring

Vélez admits that Nubank initially "missed" the inflection point where AI truly worked, only realizing the technology had qualitatively changed in December 2025. Subsequently, within 60 days, the company performed a "cold restart" AI restructuring of all 120 workflows across the company.

  • Inflection Point: Nubank makes heavy use of the Clojure programming language. For most of 2025, AI models performed "very poorly" on this language. It wasn't until the release of the Opus 4.6 model in December 2025 that their senior engineers realized, "This actually works." Vélez admits they only "caught" the signal 60 days later while exchanging ideas with early-stage entrepreneurs in California.
  • Organizational Restructuring: After recognizing the gap, Vélez returned to Brazil and performed a "cold restart" of the entire organization. They mapped out 120 different workflows, from coding and product design to KYC processes, internal audit, compliance, and capital management, and redesigned them all using AI-native tools. This resulted in organizational layers being reduced from 10 to 5, and Vélez's direct reports increased from 1 person to 20.
  • Data Moat: Vélez believes data is a key moat in the AI era, but only with the right "systems and culture." He draws an analogy to Blockbuster, which had vast user data but couldn't utilize it, while Netflix built a better recommendation algorithm from scratch. Nubank has 140 million customers, approximately 20,000-30,000 data points per customer, spanning 13 years of accumulated data. It has used this to build its own financial foundation model for credit decisions. He believes that while startups are fast, it is difficult for them to replicate this scale of data and model capability in the short term.

Three Major Shifts in the Global Financial System: The End of Cash, Open Banking, and Stablecoins

Vélez believes that over the next five years, the global financial system will be fundamentally changed by three external forces: the end of cash, the proliferation of open banking, and the impact of stablecoins on the fiat currency system.

  • The End of Cash and Credit Creation: Vélez sees the digitization of cash as the "biggest catalyst." Using the example of a "taco stand" on the streets of Mexico City, he points out that when transactions shift from cash to digital records, the small vendor can obtain credit based on cash flow data, thereby expanding their business. This will unlock "trillions of dollars" in credit opportunities globally, providing a massive boost to economic mobility.
  • Open Banking and Competition: Open banking allows consumers to transfer their financial data between different institutions, breaking the oligopolistic position traditional banks enjoy due to "data inertia." Vélez believes the global banking industry is currently an "oligopoly" (the top five or six banks in the US, Europe, and Latin America control 60-70% of assets), and open banking will make it more fragmented and competitive.
  • Stablecoins and the "Great Shakeout" of Fiat Currencies: Vélez predicts that in 10-20 years, the world's 190 fiat currencies could be reduced to just 10. Because many countries have "very poor" fiscal conditions, their fiat currencies are "not real money." He argues that dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDC will "save" the US dollar's status as a reserve currency because they "democratize access to the dollar." Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will play a role in diversified portfolios. Nubank has announced the launch of stablecoin-based accounts in 35 countries.

Position Moves

Position Guest's Stance Key Data
Nubank Bullish (own business) 140M customers, 10K employees, 65% of Brazil's adult population as customers, 60% use it as primary account, customer service cost is 3% of traditional banks, ROE is 2-3x that of traditional banks.
Traditional Banks (General) Risk Warning (to be disrupted) Hold 90% share of global financial services, have 100M customers, 100K employees, 6,000 branches, pay 40bps deposit rate, levy ~$600B "hidden tax" on US savers annually.
Blockbuster Analogy (physical model to be disrupted) Had vast data but failed to utilize it effectively, disrupted by Netflix.
Netflix Analogy (disruptor model) Started with zero data, built a better algorithm.
Amazon Analogy (customer obsession culture) Studied as a benchmark for "customer obsession."
Disney Analogy (creating magical experiences) Studied as a benchmark for creating "magical experiences."
Bitcoin Bullish (portfolio role) Plays a role in diversified portfolios.
Hyperplane Acquired (technology integration) AI company acquired by Nubank to build its financial foundation model.

Judgments Worth Remembering

1. "The global banking industry is still in the Blockbuster era." — David Vélez. Support: 90% of market share and profit pools are still held by traditional banks, with digital banks accounting for less than 10% combined, representing a massive market migration opportunity.

2. "AI will make 'a personal banker for everyone' possible." — David Vélez. Support: AI can solve problems that traditional "financial education" cannot, providing super-intelligent financial optimization advice for 99% of ordinary people, thereby competing away banks' existing high-profit pools.

3. "Nubank's customer service cost is 3% of a traditional bank's, and AI will amplify this advantage to 50 times." — David Vélez. Support: Nubank operates with 140M customers and 10K employees, while traditional banks need 100K employees and 6,000 branches. AI will further automate, making a "bank with 500M customers and 5,000 employees" possible.

4. "Data is a moat, but only with the right systems and data culture." — David Vélez. Support: Blockbuster had massive data but couldn't use it, while Netflix built a better algorithm from scratch. Nubank has 140M customers, 20K-30K data points per customer, spanning 13 years of data, and has built its own financial foundation model.

5. "Nubank missed the 'December moment' when AI truly worked, realizing it only 60 days later." — David Vélez. Support: AI only became truly usable for the Clojure language with the release of the Opus 4.6 model in December 2025. Nubank subsequently performed a "cold restart" AI restructuring of all 120 workflows across the company.

6. "The end of cash is the biggest catalyst; it will unlock trillions of dollars in credit." — David Vélez. Support: Using the example of a "taco stand" in Mexico City, when cash transactions are digitized, the small vendor can obtain credit based on cash flow data, allowing them to expand their business.

7. "In 10-20 years, the world's 190 fiat currencies will be reduced to just 10." — David Vélez. Support: Many countries have poor fiscal conditions, and their fiat currencies are "not real money." Dollar stablecoins will "save" the dollar, but it won't be the only one; several other fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies will coexist.

8. "The founder is more important than the CEO, especially during times of technological change." — David Vélez. Support: Founders possess "unrealistic" vision, immense urgency, and a "near-tragic" level of care for the company, which gives them an advantage over professional managers' systematic management capabilities during periods of change. He himself chooses to play more of a "founder" role.