This interview is about the 'Great Founder Theory'—history is driven by a few people who create lasting institutions, not by trends or technology. Samo Burja argues that social technology is more fundamental than hard tech, since tech can regress (e.g., Roman concrete was lost). He warns investors that social consensus can be badly wrong, e.g., Europe may decline, Japan's shrinking population hurts real estate. Key mentions: Germany (fewer tech unicorns than Russia), UAE (exception, launched Mars probe), Japan (population decline, real estate risk).
Samo Burja, in his appearance on Invest Like the Best, introduced the "Great Founder Theory," which argues that historical progress is driven by a small number of exceptional founders rather than inevitable trends. He contends that no immortal society has ever existed, all institutions eventually de
Samo Burja (founder of Bismark Analysis) proposes the "Great Founder Theory," whose core argument is that historical progress is driven by a very small number of exceptional founders, rather than by inevitable trends or hard technological advances. He argues that no immortal society has ever existed, all institutions eventually decay, and the role of founders is crucial. The most weighty judgment in the entire piece: Burja believes that social technology is the upstream effect of hard technology — material technology does not automatically drive progress; it depends on the support of social organization. Historically, technology can regress (e.g., the loss of Roman concrete), proving that social factors are decisive.
Samo Burja argues that history is not driven by the "spirit of the age" or "inevitable trends," but by a very small number of founders capable of creating enduring institutions.
Implication: If the world accepted this theory, policymakers would no longer assume that "China will democratize once it becomes wealthy" — they would instead study the operational mechanisms of the Chinese Communist Party as a specific organization, rather than making predictions based on linear progressivism.
Burja distinguishes between two key concepts and provides frequency estimates for each.
| Concept | Definition | Quantity Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Great Founder | Individuals who created civilization-level institutions (e.g., Confucius, Martin Luther, Deng Xiaoping) | ≤500 in all of human history |
| Live Player | Individuals capable of succeeding across industries without relying on inherited scripts (e.g., Arnold Schwarzenegger) | Approximately 50,000 globally today |
1. Willingness to fundamentally revise key pillars of society (e.g., Muhammad replacing tribes/clans with the "community of all believers")
2. Ability to attract and inspire disciples (all thinkers have followers)
3. Experience of intense social opposition (ranging from public vilification to violent persecution)
4. "Quite unreasonable" —Burja notes: "If you are a rational person, you adjust yourself to the world; if you are an unreasonable person, you try to make the world adjust to you."
5. A degree of delusion about their own capabilities—but if you are Alexander the Great, such "delusion" may simply be an accurate assessment of reality.
Unique Insight: Burja cautions that our perception of these individuals has been mythologized—Joseph Campbell's "hero's journey" narrative may merely be how we tell stories, not a reflection of their actual psychological experience.
Burja argues that hard technology and social technology are "deeply symbiotic," but social technology is the more fundamental upstream factor.
Implication: If AI fails to become a "major bet that transforms the economy," the United States could also slide into a recessionary state similar to Europe—because the only bright spot in U.S. economic growth is nearly the tech sector, and the tech sector is heavily concentrated on AI.
Burja argues that the core function of institutions is to transmit social reputation and knowledge across generations—because humans are mortal, institutions serve as "social reputation warehouses that outlive individuals."
| Type | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Owned Power | Essentially within your control and difficult to strip away | The king's power to tax (in theory) |
| Borrowed Power | Power exercised on behalf of others, which can be revoked | The U.S. Secretary of State's power (the president can dismiss them) |
Burja argues that the core value of the Great Founder Theory for investors is not "finding the next Steve Jobs," but recognizing that social consensus can be profoundly wrong:
But Burja also warns: Even if you encounter a Steve Jobs, timing is critical—investing in his ventures during the period after he left Apple might have appeared to be a "complete loss."
| Position | Guest Stance | Key Data |
|---|---|---|
| Germany (European Tech) | Risk Warning | "Russia has more unicorns than Germany" |
| UAE | Bullish (Exception) | Has launched a Mars probe and built a civilian nuclear reactor |
| US (Overall) | Neutral to Cautious | Government efficiency lower than in the 1940s/1960s; tech growth concentrated in AI |
| China | Neutral (Observation) | 1.3B population, world's second-largest economy; Marxist ideology |
| Japan | Risk Warning | Population continues to decline; long-term bearish on real estate |
1. “There have been no more than 500 Great Founders in all of human history” (Burja) — Each civilization has roughly 5–8 unique institutions, with 1–2 founders behind each. This means the probability of encountering one in your lifetime is nearly zero.
2. “The most reliable sign of a Live Player is success across industries” (Burja) — Arnold Schwarzenegger went from bodybuilding champion → actor → politician, doubted each time as “not a real X,” yet succeeded every time. This is proof of being “alive.”
3. “Social technology is upstream of hard technology” (Burja) — Technology can regress (Roman concrete was lost), proving that the fragility of social organization is the key variable. The same technology yields completely different outcomes in different societies (social media in the West → polarization, in China → censorship).
4. “Great Founders are all ‘unreasonable people’” (Burja) — They try to make the world adapt to them, rather than adapting themselves to the world. This requires “extremely strong psychological defenses,” because nearly everyone initially opposes them.
5. “Borrowed power transforms into owned power over time” (Burja) — A king can dismiss officials, but by the time of Louis XVI, the bureaucracy had become detached from the king. This is the historical version of the “principal-agent problem.”
6. “Social consensus can be profoundly wrong” (Burja) — The core takeaway for investors: do not assume “today + linear progress = the future.” Europe could become a “pre-developed world,” and the U.S. could decline if AI fails.
7. “Progress is not linear accumulation; civilizations are bounded” (Burja) — This is diametrically opposed to Steven Pinker’s linear progress theory. Civilizations decay, and new civilizations may be more primitive than the old ones.
8. “Napoleon may not be a Great Founder” (Burja) — His military reforms may have been “overdetermined” (they would have happened without him), and while his civil code was far-reaching, it seems unrelated to the Industrial Revolution. This illustrates the strictness of the criteria.