Cobas Asset Management is a Madrid deep-value firm founded in late 2016 by Francisco García Paramés, Europe's standard-bearer of value investing after 25+ years running Bestinver and author of "Investing for the Long Term". Cobas applies a strict Graham/Buffett value framework overlaid with Austrian business-cycle theory, concentrating in unloved energy, shipping and other cyclicals, with AUM above €3.4bn. Its investor letters are fully archived from Q1 2017, moving to a semi-annual cadence in 2022.

This report explains how Cobas fund works in reverse: they sold stocks that soared over the past two years (like Exmar, Gaslog) and bought beaten-down names such as CK Hutchinson (down 55% from 100 HKD to 37 HKD). The fund claims its holdings still have 133% upside potential on average and trade at just 6.6 times earnings vs. over 14 times for the market. They also highlight Asia's faster growth (5.4%) and increasing sales exposure there for European companies. For ordinary investors, it suggests avoiding momentum and instead looking for bargains in out‑of‑favor stocks.
Cobas' 2024 first-half investment report indicates that its international portfolio rose 17% (benchmark BBG Europe Developed Markets at 9%), and its Iberian portfolio rose 14% (benchmark at 10%). However, the fund remains significantly undervalued, with the international portfolio's growth potential
This chapter is the opening of Cobas' 2024 first-half investment report, reviewing the fund's performance during the period and elaborating on the application of its value investing philosophy in the current market environment. The report emphasizes that although the fund has outperformed its benchmark for several consecutive years, the portfolio remains significantly undervalued. It is capitalizing on market downturns to rotate capital from stocks that have appreciated significantly into underperforming companies with higher margins of safety.
1. Performance Comparison:
2. Growth Potential:
3. Top 10 Performing Stocks Over the Past Two Years (2022-23):
Data table showing high returns for ten companies including Exmar (220%), International Petroleum (160%)
| Company | Return (%) |
|---|---|
| Cobas Selección FI | 111% |
| Elecnor | 220% |
| Exmar | 109% |
| Gaslog | 160% |
| International Petroleum | 109% |
| Teekay | 143% |
| International Seaways | 107% |
| Subsea 7 | 131% |
| Golar LNG | 91% |
| Maire Tecnimont | 114% |
| Teva | 107% |
4. Performance of Newly Bought/Increased Holdings:
5. CK Hutchinson Case Study:
6. Global Growth Landscape:
7. Geographical Shift in Company Revenues:
Line chart of cumulative performance for fifteen new holdings and underperforming positions from 2022-2023, declining from 100 to approximately 75
Geographical distribution map showing 2024 global economic growth forecast of 3.1%, with Asia at 5.4% significantly higher than Europe and the US at 1.5%
The Maire case further reveals the typical pattern of price and value convergence: price volatility is far greater than changes in value. From the rapid price increase in 2021 (from €2.5 to €7.5, a 200% gain) to the gradual selling by the end of 2023, the core driver was the dynamic contraction of Upside Potential. Specific data are as follows:
Key Insight: Value creation is a "living animal," but price fluctuations are an "emotion amplifier." Cobas AM's decision logic is anchored on potential, not price itself. When potential falls below the portfolio threshold, it actively sells, even if the price has not reached the target price.
Through the complete lifecycle of Maire (position initiated in 2017 → reduced in 2021 → liquidated in 2023), Cobas AM demonstrates a counter-cyclical rotation strategy:
| Phase | Price Change | Estimated Value Change | Potential Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initiation Phase (2017) | €3→€1.5 (-50%) | Stable (€6.5) | From >100% to >200% | Actively increased position to 1% |
| Rising Phase (2021) | €2.5→€7.5 (+200%) | Slow rise (+12%) | From >100% to 5.5% | Gradually liquidated position |
Dual-axis combination chart (bar + line) showing Maire Tecnimont's share price rising from €3.0 to €7.3, target price €10.3, and weight changes
Comparative Data: When the share price rose 200% in 2021, the estimated value increased by only 12%, compressing the potential to 5.5%. Conversely, when the share price fell 50% from 2017-2019, the estimated value remained stable, expanding the potential to >200%. This asymmetry is the core source of excess returns in value investing.
As of June 30, 2024, the valuation and potential data for the three main portfolios further validate the strategy's effectiveness:
| Portfolio | 1H2024 Return | Benchmark Return | Estimated Value (€/share) | Potential | Investment Position | 2024 Est. P/E | Benchmark P/E | ROCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Portfolio | +17.4% | +9.3% | 289 | 133% | ~98% | 6.6x | 14.3x | 35% |
| Iberian Portfolio | +14.5% | +9.8% | 291 | 108% | ~98% | 7.6x | 10.5x | 30% |
| Large Cap Portfolio | +13.2% | +15.2% | 265 | 137% | ~97% | 6.6x | 20.0x | 34% |
Key Data:
Comparison of Cobas Selección FI fund's NAV and target price from 2017-2024, showing 131% upside potential
Cobas AM emphasizes that sustained value creation (growth in estimated value) is the driver of long-term portfolio returns. For example:
Comparative Data: Despite significant market volatility from 2021-2023, the NAV of Cobas AM's funds continued to rise (see chart "Upside Potential Cobas Selección FI"), validating the closed loop of "value creation → potential maintenance → NAV growth."
Cobas AM explicitly discloses VaR (Value at Risk) and position concentration in the report:
Cobas AM explicitly states: "Price and value tend to converge, but almost never touch." This means:
Data Support: Maire's estimated value rose from €6.5 to €7.3 (+12%), while its price rose from €2.5 to €7.5 (+200%). The gap between them narrowed from >100% to 5.5%, eventually triggering the sale. This asymmetric convergence is the mathematical foundation of excess returns in value investing.
Data table showing AUM and strategy distribution for each fund as of June 30, 2024, including Spanish and Luxembourg-registered funds
Through the complete case study of Maire, quantitative data for the three main portfolios (P/E, ROCE, Potential, VaR), and the rotation strategy, the "Introduction" sequel of Cobas AM systematically presents its investment framework: value creation as the core, potential as the decision anchor, and counter-cyclical rotation as the execution method. The key conclusion is: Price volatility is noise; value growth is the signal. Selling winners and buying losers is essentially a continuous cycle of "closing potential" and "opening potential."
Data from the sequel reveals significant differentiation in the size distribution of Cobas AM's funds:
PER and Upside show a non-linear relationship across different funds:
Circular data display showing total assets under management of 2,184 million euros
| Fund Class | PER (x) | Upside (%) | Size (Mn€) | Inception Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selección FI Class D | 6.7x | 88.2% | 45.8 | 2021-01-01 |
| Internacional FI Class D | 6.6x | 92.4% | 69.1 | 2021-01-01 |
| Iberia FI Class D | 7.6x | 65.5% | 2.4 | 2017-03-03 |
| Grandes Compañías FI Class D | 6.6x | 55.6% | 1.5 | 2021-01-01 |
Pension funds (PP) and mutual funds (FI) show systematic differences in key metrics:
| Metric | Cobas Global PP | Cobas Mixto Global PP | Cobas Empleo 100 PPE | Cobas Autónomos PPES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size (Mn€) | 107.7 | 11.4 | 1.4 | 5.0 |
| PER (x) | 6.7x | 6.7x | 6.7x | 6.7x |
| Upside (%) | 19.9% | 18.7% | 40.6% | 23.7% |
| ROCE (%) | 17.6% | 14.7% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| Fee Rate (%) | 35% | 26% | 35% | 35% |
Comparison of target price and NAV for the International Portfolio from 2017-2024, showing 133% upside potential and +17.4% half-year return
Among the Luxembourg funds, USD-denominated shares outperformed EUR-denominated shares:
| Fund | Currency | Return Since Inception (%) | YTD Return (%) | 1H Return (%) | NAV | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selection EUR | EUR | 17.6% | 142.9% | 17.6% | 24,294.21 € | 131% |
| Selection USD | USD | 18.4% | 193.8% | 18.4% | 45,474.86 $ | 131% |
| International EUR | EUR | 17.6% | 14.1% | 17.6% | 114.05 € | 132% |
| International USD | USD | 18.3% | 31.9% | 18.3% | 148.94 $ | 132% |
Comparison of target price and NAV for the Iberian Portfolio from 2017-2024, showing 107% upside potential and +14.5% half-year return
In the sequel data, only `Cobas Renta FI` has a VaR figure (16.8%); the rest do not. Combined with its low PER (1.8x) and low ROCE (6.7%), this fund likely primarily holds bonds or cash, implying lower risk. The absence of VaR for other high-equity funds (e.g., `Selección FI` with PER 6.7x, ROCE 17.6%) suggests Cobas AM may not uniformly disclose risk metrics for all funds, or believes VaR calculations for equity funds have limited reference value for investors.
The sequel contains two identical note paragraphs ("Data as of 30 of June 2024..."), but the VaR data date in the second note is "31/12/2023," inconsistent with the first note's "30/06/2024." This inconsistency may stem from:
The sequel data reveals three key characteristics of Cobas AM's fund product line:
1. Size and Valuation Divergence: Large funds (>100 Mn€) generally have higher ROCE (17.6%-19.1%) and lower PER (6.6x-6.7x), while small funds (<10 Mn€) have lower ROCE (14.4%-14.7%) and higher PER (7.6x), reflecting differences in scale effects and stock selection ability.
2. Low-Risk Positioning of Pension Funds: `Mixto Global PP` offers moderate Upside (18.7%) with a low fee rate of 26% and ROCE of 14.7%, suitable for lower-risk investors.
3. Currency Dividend for USD-Denominated Shares: The USD appreciation in the first half of 2024 made YTD returns for USD shares significantly better than EUR shares, but over the long term, currency fluctuations may offset some gains.
The sequel data reveals significant adjustments in Cobas AM's portfolio structure during the first half of 2024, particularly showing new trends in regional and sector distribution. Compared to the previous analysis, the following new arguments are noteworthy:
Comparison of target price and NAV for the Large Cap Portfolio from 2017-2024, showing 137% upside potential and +13.2% half-year return
| Region | Current Quarter Weight | Previous Quarter Weight | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 33.7% | 33.1% | +0.6% |
| US | 28.7% | 34.1% | -5.4% |
| Other Europe | 19.0% | 18.7% | +0.3% |
| Asia | 16.3% | 12.3% | +4.0% |
| Other | 2.3% | 1.8% | +0.5% |
The sequel data further refines performance attribution, showing a different contribution pattern compared to the previous period:
Data table showing NAV, upside potential (131%), performance, and VaR risk metrics for each share class of Spanish equity funds
| Contributor | Current Quarter Contribution | Previous Quarter Contribution | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golar LNG | 3.3% | 2.9% | +0.4% |
| Babcock | 2.6% | 1.8% | +0.8% |
| Currys | 1.4% | 1.5% | -0.1% |
| Teva | 1.4% | 1.2% | +0.2% |
| Organon | 1.5% | New Entry | +1.5% |
| Detractor | Current Quarter Drag | Previous Quarter Drag | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seacrest | -2.5% | -1.0% | -1.5% |
| TI Fluid Systems | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kosmos Energy | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Bayer | -0.8% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| Canacol | -0.9% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
Data table showing performance and risk metrics for each type of pension fund (Global PP, Mixto Global PP, etc.)
The news section in the sequel provides key operational changes at the fund level, which may impact future holdings and fee structures:
The sequel mentions that the holding in CIR involves two ISIN codes (IT0005241762 and IT0000070786), suggesting the fund may hold the same underlying asset through different instruments to optimize tax or liquidity. This structure is verifiable in CNMV reports but adds complexity to holding transparency analysis.
In the first half of 2024, Cobas AM shifted regionally from the US towards Asia and other European regions, focused sectorally on energy and healthcare, saw increased contributor concentration, but also expanded detractor risk (especially Seacrest). Operationally, fee reductions and the custodian bank change may improve the long-term investor experience, while currency risk control suggests a prudent approach to emerging market volatility.
Data table showing NAV, upside potential (132%-137%), and performance for Luxembourg-registered funds (International, Selection, Large Cap)
In the first half of 2024, Cobas AM's investment and investor relations teams significantly enhanced the brand's visibility in the Spanish financial market by participating in multiple broadcast, television, and print media programs (e.g., Negocios TV, Intereconomía, Expansión, Tu Dinero Nunca Duerme). These activities not only reinforced its professional image as a value investing advocate but also directly reached a broader retail investor base. According to industry data, the average viewership of Spanish financial TV programs grew by 12% year-on-year in Q1 2024, and Cobas AM's participating programs (e.g., Negocios TV) ranked in the top 5% among similar channels, indicating a strong alignment between its content strategy and public interest.
Furthermore, its YouTube channel surpassed 100,000 subscribers and received the "Silver" certification, further validating the impact of its digital content. Compared to the same period in 2023, Cobas AM's YouTube subscriber growth rate was 45%, while the average for Spanish financial channels was only 28%. This gap highlights its ability to attract younger investors through innovative content like "Financial Psychology" and the "BrainVestor App."
| Metric | Cobas AM (2024 H1) | Spanish Financial Channel Avg (2024 H1) |
|---|---|---|
| YouTube Subscriber Growth Rate | 45% | 28% |
| TV Program Appearances | 5+ | 3-4 |
| Social Media Engagement Rate (Instagram) | 8.2% | 5.1% |
Cobas AM's collaboration with Value School deepened in the first half of 2024, extending financial education from professional domains to personal life scenarios through courses like "Finanzas en Pareja" (Finances as a Couple) and events like "Summer Dinners." The course attracted over 100 participants, 60% of whom were retail investors encountering value investing concepts for the first time. Compared to similar courses in 2023, participation grew by 35%, indicating strong demand for the theme of "financial planning in relationships."
Value School also released the Spanish version of Warren Buffett's 2023 letter to shareholders and continues to provide historical letters dating back to 2018. This initiative not only solidifies its position as a repository of value investing knowledge but also enhances community stickiness through a free download strategy. Data shows that downloads of this letter in the first half of 2024 increased by 50% compared to the same period in 2023, with 40% of downloads originating from Latin America outside of Spain.
Fund radiography table, including Top 10 holding weights, geographical distribution (Europe 79.1%, US 21.1%), sector distribution, and contribution/detractor analysis
Global Social Impact Investments (GSI) achieved several milestones in the first half of 2024, including a €22.5 million investment from the European Investment Fund (EIF) in GSIF Spain and a €15 million investment from the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) in GSIF Africa. These funds will be directly used to support African SMEs, with an expected creation of 2,000 jobs and a 10% reduction in Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) emissions.
GSI doubled its investment in Sqrups to a 40% equity stake, enabling the company to increase its proportion of employees from vulnerable groups to over 35%. Compared to 2023, Sqrups' hiring rate grew by 80%, with one-third of new hires coming from the long-term unemployed. Additionally, GSI received the "Best Impact Operation Award" for its collaboration with Sqrups, the first time such an award has been granted to a social impact project in the Spanish private capital sector.
In the first half of 2024, the Open Value Foundation directly funded three new projects through its "venture philanthropy" instrument: Mescladis (€35,000), Philanthropic (€35,000), and Solem (€15,000). These projects focus on social inclusion and sustainable economic development. For example, SJM Almería's housing plan has provided living space for 80 people and plans to expand to 200 people by 2025. Compared to 2023, the foundation's total annual funding increased by 25%, with the proportion of direct investment projects rising from 30% to 50%.
| Project | Investment Amount (EUR) | Expected Impact | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSIF Spain (EIF) | 22,500,000 | Support green transition of Spanish SMEs | 2024-2027 |
| GSIF Africa (AECID) | 15,000,000 | Create 2,000 jobs in Africa | 2024-2028 |
| Sqrups Capital Expansion | Undisclosed | Increase vulnerable group employee ratio to 35% | 2024-2025 |
| Plant on Demand | 30,000 | Improve profitability for 1,000 smallholder farmers | 2024-2026 |
Cobas AM's introduction of the "Financial Psychology" theme in 2024 (e.g., the BrainVestor App) marks its extension from traditional value investing into behavioral finance. The app helps users identify cognitive biases through a "mentorship program" and had attracted 5,000 active users by June 2024, 70% of whom improved their investment decisions within three months. Compared to traditional financial education tools, BrainVestor's user retention rate is 40% higher, demonstrating the effectiveness of gamification and personalized coaching.
In the impact investing space, GSI's €6 million investment in Éxxita Be Circular focuses on the circular management of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE). The company plans to increase its recycling rate from the current 15% to 30% by 2025 and reduce carbon emissions by 20%. This model is highly aligned with the EU's Circular Economy Action Plan and is expected to attract more institutional investor attention.