Overview Conclusion Full-year 2025 results met expectations, with strong Siding business growth offset by weak OSB prices; the core lies in SmartSide product innovation and market share gains.
Key Data Full-year Siding revenue grew 8% (4% volume, 4% price), EBITDA reached $436 million; adjusted EPS $2.65; Siding EBITDA margin 26%.
Business Progress The Siding business grew against the trend, with Expert Finish revenue jumping 35% (Q4) and margins improving 8 percentage points YoY, benefiting from improved capacity utilization efficiency and the nearing of the new Green Bay plant (commencing production in Q2). The Shed sub-market grew over 20% for the full year, but channel inventory is elevated due to overallocation ahead of price increases. Despite prices falling to 20-year lows in the OSB business, positive full-year EBITDA was achieved through cost control and efficiency improvements (utilization rate rose to 79%). Organizational restructuring (Chief Commercial Officer/Chief Operating Officer structure) fosters cross-category synergies and strengthens market share expansion in new residential and R&R markets.
Guidance & Outlook Management lowered Q1 expectations: Siding sales volume down 15%-20% YoY (Shed down 25%-30%), but average selling price up 6%-8% due to price increases and product mix improvement. For the full year, low single-digit volume decline and mid-single-digit price growth are expected, with EBITDA margin around 25%-26%; if OSB maintains current prices, the full year will be near breakeven, but Q1 may incur a loss of $25 million to $30 million. Capital expenditure is approximately $400 million, with flexibility to adjust.
Risk/Highlight Signals Positive signals: The tight supply-demand situation for Expert Finish has eased (allocation lifted on February 1), end-market demand remains resilient; OSB prices have recently rebounded, and market supply-demand is moving toward balance. Negative signals: Elevated channel inventory and winter storm disruptions led to a weak start in Q1, with Shed demand under short-term pressure.