Michael Mauboussin (Consilient Observer) Letters & Research Archive

Michael Mauboussin is among the most buy-side-revered researchers in finance — former Chief Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse, now Head of Consilient Research at Morgan Stanley's Counterpoint Global, and a Columbia Business School adjunct for 30+ years. The Consilient Observer series dissects investing's core questions — measuring moats, returns on capital, who is on the other side, base rates — each a methodological classic.

4 pieces · 2026–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

06-18Opportunities and Expectations: The Present Value of Growth Opportunities in ValuationThis article breaks down a stock's price into two parts: the value of current earnings (steady-state) and the value of future growth opportunities (PVGO). It shows that when PVGO is very high (meaning…→04-14Competitive Advantage Period: The Neglected Value DriverThis research explains that when valuing a stock, you should focus not just on how much profit a company makes, but how long it can keep earning above-average returns (called its Competitive Advantage…→02-10Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the FutureThis study uses 75 years of historical data to show that AI companies like OpenAI and Oracle are making growth predictions that have almost no precedent. For example, OpenAI expects revenue to multipl…→01-21Who Is On the Other Side? A Framework for Understanding Market (In)EfficiencyThis report explains that markets are neither perfectly efficient (prices always right) nor completely inefficient (easy money). Instead, they're in an 'efficiently inefficient' state: because gatheri…→