Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets) Letters & Research Archive

Musings on Markets is the personal blog of Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern and widely known as the "Dean of Valuation." Running since 2008, it publishes hands-on intrinsic-value teardowns of headline companies (SpaceX, Tesla, Nvidia) using his narrative-and-numbers DCF framework, plus periodic market-wide reviews.

11 pieces · 2026–2026 · updated every Monday

2026

09-10Interest Rates and Stock Prices: An Old Debate Flares up!This article argues that rising interest rates don't always hurt stocks. Damodaran says that despite the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.75% in 2026, corporate earnings grew over 11%, keeping the…→09-02The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!This piece argues that venture capital's obsession with growth over profit is creating fragile companies. The author warns investors to look beyond revenue and check unit economics and competitive moa…→08-20AI's Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!This piece says AI has moved from hype to a 'bar mitzvah' moment where it must prove it can make real money. The author, Damodaran, is cautious because AI companies have invested $1.7 trillion but onl…→08-10The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!A finance professor uses the crash of AI-star fund Situational Awareness, which lost two-thirds of its public stock holdings in four weeks and was forced to liquidate, as a warning: markets give and t…→07-29Information Timing and Release: The Gaming of Guidance!This article looks at two proposals: the SEC's idea to make companies report every six months instead of every quarter, and the new Federal Reserve chair's plan to give less market guidance. The autho…→07-15Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!This article explains that country risk—like political instability or economic crisis—can no longer be avoided by diversifying across countries, because markets crash together in bad times. Valuation…→06-18SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!This analysis asks whether loss-making giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic should be added to the S&P 500. The author argues opponents are biased—either active fund promoters or self-appointed p…→06-04Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!This analysis updates SpaceX's valuation after its prospectus. The key takeaway: the story hasn't changed—SpaceX’s value still depends on future growth, not current losses. But the numbers matter more…→05-06An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook LegacyThis analysis argues that Tim Cook, Apple's outgoing CEO, is underrated. While Steve Jobs was the visionary, Cook's disciplined restraint—avoiding big acquisitions, focusing on stock buybacks and divi…→04-23To a Trillion(s) Dollars and beyond: A SpaceX IPO Odyssey!This analysis breaks SpaceX into three parts—rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and AI (Grok)—and estimates each business's future earnings. The result: SpaceX is worth about $1.22 trillion…→04-01Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026This report examines how markets reacted to the Iran war in March 2026. The key takeaway: markets were not panicking—the VIX (a fear gauge) rose only modestly, and oil futures suggest the price spike…→